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Conditional Trade Orders

Are you sure you want to deal with the emotions associated with the risk of losing your money? Do you have the right mindset to make sure trading is enjoyable?A great tool to help manage emotions is the use of "conditional orders". A conditional order is an order that uses predetermined criteria to trigger an action.Here's an example of a "conditional order" that executed today:If the bid of $STLD is greater or equal to $30.49, sell $STLD at limit $30.50. This "conditional order" was created on Monday, September 14 and it triggered on Tuesday, September 15.There are a couple of things I like about this strategy:You don't have to openly "advertise" your plans to the public. You may already be wondering why not just place a sell order for $STLD at limit of $30.50? I prefer not to "show my hand" until I am ready to play my hand and I also like the power of putting some thought into the if/then conditions. Conditional orders are no…

Low Tide Watch

The tides go up and the tides go down. We recently observed a record-setting 65 day King Tide that rose 20% between June 29 and September 2. That's a heck of a run and it was fun to watch.I like to float boats at Low Tide and let the boats rise with the Tide.Here are some Tide level boat launch points:3300 interested but not excited3000 very interestedIf you choose to launch, take caution, the winds (VIX) is high around 30 knots. I'll be patiently waiting and watching the weather. With the election coming soon, we can call this "hurricane season" and the last thing you want to do is launch and get caught in a hurricane. Fair winds and following seas!Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Low Tide (S&P around 3339)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 30 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted…

Create Watch Lists

Creating Watch Lists in whatever brokerage account you are using and selecting the "boats" (stock symbols) to include in your Watch Lists are the first steps in Fleet Management.AVOID LOSING YOUR ENTIRE INVESTMENT! Stay diversified by investing in a fleet of stocks rather than risk everything on one stock. That is why Watch Lists are important so you can observe and study stocks from various industries at the same time.Here's an example Watch List created in TD Ameritrade > My Account > Create a new watch list > Add symbol(s) > Name and Save Your Watch ListExample: AAPL, AMZN, CAT, $VIX.X, F, GOOGL, KHC, MU, STLD, T, USBHere's another Watch List example: FXAIX, RFHTX, VIGIX, VIIIXAnd another: AAPL, AMD, AMZN, BABA, BBBY, BRK.B, BX, BXS, C, CAT, CRM, CSCO, CTL, DE, DELL, DIS, DKGN, F, FB, FDX, GE, GM, GOOGL, GSS, GT, GTN, HD, JBLU, JCI, JD, JNJ, KHC, LOW, LSI, LUV, MA, MAT, MGM, MRVL, MSFT, MU, NKE, NVDA, ORCL, PFPT, RAD, RNG, SANM, SBUX, SCHW, SIRI, STLD,…

Hurricane Corona Officially Ended March 23rd

The Fourth Low Tide reached on March 23, 2020 had me asking "WAS THIS THE END?" as we violently fell from 3394 to 2192 in just 33 days. Today, with the S&P rising over 3394 intraday, the suspicion is now officially confirmed: Hurricane Corona ended on March 23, 2020.Dot-Com Bubble: lasted 512 days & took 1,496 days for the S&P to reach the pre-hurricane highGreat Recession: lasted 930 days & took 1,817 days for the S&P to reach the pre-hurricane highCorona: lasted 33 days & took 148 days for the S&P to reach the pre-hurricane highHere is a summary of the Tide action during Hurricane Corona relative to the other two hurricanes:Fourth Low Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble↓ 13% over 45 days (day 272, ↓ 19% overall)Great Recession↓ 17% over 57 days (day 278, ↓ 24% overall)Corona: ↓ 11% over 4 days (day 33), ↓ 35% overallThird High Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↑ 10% over 19 days (day 227 of the hurricane)Great Recession ↑ 15% over 63 days …

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/29/20

Let's check the accuracy of last week's Log:
Projected Range: 3005 - 3191 Actual Range: 3005 - 3155
This week we start at 3009 and expect a range between 2920 - 3078 during this short week (the seas are closed Friday July 3).
Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch boats at or below the 3000 level.Continue sailing boats already at sea to the 3200 - 3300 level.There are no short sailings planned. Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Low Tide (S&P around 3009)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 35 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated or endorsed including a…

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/22/20

After sailing through a violent storm that dropped the seas by ↓ 249 points or ↓ 7% the week before, last week proved to be fairly benign.
We start this week at 3098 expecting the seas to find a range between 3005 and 3191 so we will be in a holding pattern until we close in on one of the ends of the range.
Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch boats at or below the 3000 level.Continue sailing boats already at sea to the 3200 - 3300 level.There are no short sailings planned. Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Mid Tide (S&P around 3098)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 35 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your …

Start Each Sail With The Return In Mind

There are five (5) main considerations to sail a boat: The date you set sail/depart (buy).The boat you choose to set sail with.The price you pay for the boat.The date you return (sell) the boat.The price you sell the boat for. There have been many times I have left the dock and then, while sailing, I'll do math to determine when to return to the dock only to realize I wish I would have stayed at the dock!
When you buy a boat, buy it with the end in mind.
Take a look at this example: Let's say a boat is selling for $40 per share and your research shows it might be a good time to buy.Let's say you want to make 10% so you would like to return that boat to the dock at $44.Let's say you don't want to lose more than 10% so you will need to return that boat to the dock if it hits $36.You were hoping to sail less than a month, but, after you set sail, you start looking at your charts and you see it's been a while since this boat sold for $44. Furthermore, based on the sea c…

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/15/20

Last Monday, after sailing in beautiful weather for 25 days, ↑ 466 points or ↑ 17%, the King High Tide finally crested at 3233. I had been preparing for the inevitable storm, calling boats back to the dock during the final sunny days of the tide, with as much as 72% of the fleet moored at the dock.
Then came a violent storm that dropped the seas by ↓ 249 points or ↓ 7%. Normally, ↓ 7% would be a strong signal to set sail, but because of hurricane coronahigh winds and ↑ 17% over 25 days, the violent destruction remains firmly in my mind.
Expecting the seas this week in a range between 2950 and 3133 and over the next 30 days the seas could drop to 2750.
Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch boats below the 3000 level.Continue sailing boats already at sea.There are no short sailings planned.Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Low Tide (S&P around 3041)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 36 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About …

Stock Market Tide Update

The recent King High Tide finally crested at 3233 on June 8, rising ↑ 17% over 25 days and, at the time it crested, the seas had risen ↑ 48% since March 23.
There has now been 8 King High Tides since January 1, 2016 and those tides rose between ↑ 15% and ↑ 24%.
The Low Tides that followed each King High Tide averaged ↓ 5% and lasted 13 days on average.  Today is day 3 of this Low Tide and we are ↓ 7%.
Updated Captain's Boat Log: Possibly, and very cautiously, float some boats below the 3100 level. VIX is above 30 knots.Continue sailing boats already at sea (about 28% of the fleet), and will continue calling back more boats to port around the 3200 Tide Level.There are no short positions planned.Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P around 3100)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 30 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not …

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/08/20

The current King High Tide has risen to 3211. This tide has risen ↑ 16% over 22 days and the seas have risen ↑ 47% since March 23, 2020.
There have been 7 King High Tides since January 1, 2016 and those tides rose between ↑ 15% and ↑ 24%. There is more room for this tide to rise and ↑ 24% would put the S&P at a record high of 3431.
With the recent beautiful sailing conditions (despite the high winds), we remain guarded against the inevitable storm. Boats were called back to port last week and now 28% of the fleet remains at sea.
Captain's Boat Log: No new cruises planned at the current tide level.Continue sailing boats already at sea.There are no short sailings planned.Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P at 3194)Rip Tide (high winds, VIX around 24 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or prob…