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Hurricane Election?

With the election only one week away, the  winds  have increased and sailing is becoming more challenging. But, as you know from reading 10KTrades , we like to set sail during bad weather and generally return to port when the weather has been good. We are watching for a couple of key  S&P   low tide levels: September 24  low tide  of 3209 June 29  low tide  of 3000 And if it really gets nasty: March 23  low tide  of 2192 Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Falling Tide  ( S&P  around 3390) Rip Tide  (increasing winds,  VIX  around 33 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is re

Conditional Trade Orders

Are you sure you want to deal with the emotions associated with the risk of losing your money? Do you have the right mindset to make sure trading is enjoyable? A great tool to help manage  emotions  is the use of "conditional orders". A conditional order is an order that uses predetermined criteria to trigger an action. Here's an example of a "conditional order" that executed today: If the bid of $STLD is greater or equal to $30.49, sell  $STLD  at limit $30.50. This "conditional order" was created on Monday, September 14 and it triggered on Tuesday, September 15. There are a couple of things I like about this strategy: You don't have to openly "advertise" your plans to the public. You may already be wondering why not just place a sell order for  $STLD  at limit of $30.50? I prefer not to "show my hand" until I am ready to play my hand and I also like the power of putting some thought into the if/then conditions. Conditional

Low Tide Watch

The tides go up and the tides go down. We recently observed a record-setting 65 day King Tide that rose 20% between June 29 and September 2. That's a heck of a run and it was fun to watch. I like to float boats at  Low Tide  and let the boats rise with the  Tide . Here are some Tide  level boat launch points: 3300 interested but not excited 3000 very interested If you choose to launch, take caution, the winds ( VIX ) is high around 30 knots. I'll be patiently waiting and watching the weather. With the election coming soon, we can call this " hurricane season " and the last thing you want to do is launch and get caught in a  hurricane . Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Low Tide  ( S&P  around 3339) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 30 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or

Create Watch Lists

Creating Watch Lists in whatever brokerage account you are using and selecting the " boats " (stock symbols) to include in your Watch Lists are the first steps in  Fleet Management . AVOID LOSING YOUR ENTIRE INVESTMENT! Stay diversified by investing in a fleet of stocks rather than risk everything on one stock. That is why Watch Lists are important so you can observe and study stocks from various industries at the same time. Here's an example Watch List created in TD Ameritrade > My Account > Create a new watch list > Add symbol(s) > Name and Save Your Watch List Example: AAPL, AMZN, CAT, $VIX.X, F, GOOGL, KHC, MU, STLD, T, USB Here's another Watch List example: FXAIX, RFHTX, VIGIX, VIIIX And another: AAPL, AMD, AMZN, BABA, BBBY, BRK.B, BX, BXS, C, CAT, CRM, CSCO,  CTL, DE, DELL, DIS, DKGN, F, FB, FDX, GE, GM, GOOGL, GSS, GT, GTN, HD, JBLU,  JCI, JD, JNJ, KHC, LOW, LSI, LUV, MA, MAT, MGM, MRVL, MSFT, MU, NKE, NVDA, ORCL, PFPT, RAD, RNG, SANM, SBUX, SCHW,

Hurricane Corona Officially Ended March 23rd

The  Fourth Low Tide  reached on March 23, 2020 had me asking "WAS THIS THE END?" as we violently fell from 3394 to 2192 in just 33 days. Today, with the  S&P  rising over 3394 intraday, the suspicion is now officially confirmed:  Hurricane Corona  ended on March 23, 2020. Dot-Com Bubble : lasted 512 days & took 1,496 days for the  S&P  to reach the pre-hurricane  high Great Recession : lasted 930 days & took 1,817 days for the  S&P  to reach the  pre-hurricane  high Corona : lasted 33 days & took 148 days for the  S&P  to reach the  pre-hurricane  high Here is a summary of the  Tide  action during  Hurricane Corona  relative to the other two  hurricanes : Fourth Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble   ↓  13% over 45 days (day 272,  ↓  19% overall) Great Recession   ↓  17% over 57 days (day 278,  ↓  24% overall) Corona :  ↓  11% over 4 days (day 33),  ↓  35% overall Third High Tide  of each  hurricane : Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 10% over 19 days (day

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/29/20

Let's check the accuracy of last week's Log: Projected Range:  3005 - 3191  Actual Range:  3005 - 3155 This week we start at 3009 and expect a range between 2920 - 3078 during this short week (the seas are closed Friday July 3). Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch  boats  at or below the 3000 level. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea to the 3200 - 3300 level. There are no  short sailings  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Low Tide  ( S&P  around 3009) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 35 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, adv

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/22/20

After sailing through a violent storm that dropped the seas by  ↓  249 points or  ↓  7% the week before, last week proved to be fairly benign. We start this week at 3098 expecting the seas to find a range between 3005 and 3191 so we will be in a holding pattern until we close in on one of the ends of the range. Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch  boats  at or below the 3000 level. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea to the 3200 - 3300 level. There are no  short sailings  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Mid Tide  ( S&P  around 3098) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 35 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carrie

Start Each Sail With The Return In Mind

There are five (5) main considerations to sail a boat: The date you set sail/depart (buy). The boat you choose to set sail with. The price you pay for the boat. The date you return (sell) the boat. The price you sell the boat for. There have been many times I have left the dock and then, I'll do some research only to realize I wish I would have kept that boat at the dock! When you buy a boat, buy it with the end in mind . Take a look at this example: Let's say a boat is selling for $40 per share and your research shows it might be a good time to buy. Let's say you want to make 10% so you would like to return that boat to the dock at $44. Let's say you don't want to lose more than 10% so you will need to return that boat to the dock if it hits $36. You were hoping to sail less than a month, but, after you set sail, you start looking at your charts and you see it's been a while since this boat sold for $44. Furthermore, based on the sea conditions, you think it mi

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/15/20

Last Monday, after sailing in beautiful weather for 25 days,  ↑  466 points or  ↑  17%, the  King High Tide  finally crested at 3233. I had been preparing for the inevitable storm, calling boats back to the dock during the final sunny days of the  tide , with as much as 72% of the fleet moored at the dock. Then came a violent storm that dropped the seas by  ↓  249 points or  ↓  7%. Normally,  ↓  7% would be a strong signal to set  sail , but because of hurricane corona ,  high winds  and  ↑  17% over 25 days, the violent destruction remains firmly in my mind. Expecting the seas this week in a range between 2950 and 3133 and over the next 30 days the seas could drop to 2750. Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch  boats  below the 3000 level. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea. There are no  short sailings  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Low Tide  ( S&P  around 3041) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 36 knots) S

Stock Market Tide Update

The recent  King High Tide  finally crested at 3233 on June 8, rising  ↑  17% over 25 days and, at the time it crested, the seas had risen  ↑  48% since March 23. There has now been 8  King High Tides  since January 1, 2016 and those tides rose between  ↑  15% and  ↑  24%. The  Low Tides  that followed each  King High Tide  averaged  ↓  5% and lasted 13 days on average.  Today is day 3 of this  Low Tide  and we are  ↓  7%. Updated Captain's Boat Log: Possibly, and very cautiously, float some  boats  below the 3100 level.  VIX  is above 30 knots. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea (about 28% of the  fleet ), and will continue calling back more  boats  to port around the 3200  Tide Level . There are no  short positions  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  around 3100) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 30 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informati