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Course And Heading 11/25/19

Three of the last four High Tides have expanded around 54 days. This Record King High Tide is now 51 days old and has risen 10% since the last Low Tide on October 4th.

The fleet is ready to sail upon the next Low Tide confirmation.
Preparing boats to depart (waiting to establish long positions).Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
King High Tide (S&P at 3132)Neap Tide (VIX around 12)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endor…

Course And Heading 11/18/19

The Record King High Tide is confirmed at 44 days old and has risen 9% since the last Low Tide on October 4th.

Have to remain patient with this Tide. The fleet will remain anchored at port during these beautiful conditions waiting for the next Low Tide confirmation.
Preparing boats to depart (waiting to establish long positions).Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
King High Tide (S&P at 3123)Neap Tide (VIX around 12.5)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. …

October 2019 Returns

MTD: +3% over previous monthYTD Return: +36%1 Year Return +30%3 Year Avg Annual Return +13% per year5 Year Avg Annual Return +47% per year10 Year Avg Annual Return +36% per yearLifetime Avg Annual Return -1.25% per year Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3100)Neap Tide (VIX around 12.50)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other comp…

Course And Heading 11/11/19

The Record King High Tide continues to roll in! It is now 38 days old and has risen 9% since the last Low Tide on October 4th.

Here is a look at the previous 12 High Tides (in no particular order):
7% 37 days11% 53 days9% 54 days15% 53 days7% 4 days6% 15 days8% 10 days9% 83 days8% 39 days6% 15 days6% 11 days10% 18 days Another 2% gain puts the S&P at 3164 and another 2 weeks would put the Record King High Tide at around 50 days old. Will it happen? Will it not happen?

Either way, it doesn't seem like a great time to set sail so the majority of the fleet will remain anchored at port waiting for the next Low Tide confirmation.
Preparing boats to depart (waiting to establish long positions).Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3100)Neap Tide (VIX around 12.50)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More Ab…

Course And Heading 11/04/19

It sure is fun to observe a Record King High Tide that is now 30 days old and has risen 8% since the last Low Tide. It could continue to somewhere around 3100 and last to the middle or end of November.

The majority of the fleet will remain anchored at port waiting for the next Low Tide confirmation.
Preparing boats to depart (establish long positions).Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3080)Neap Tide (VIX around 13)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your ent…

Course And Heading 10/28/19

King High Tide was established Friday October 24 and could continue to somewhere around 3100 and to the middle or end of November.

This is a time where patience really comes into play. The ocean looks so inviting with a calm VIX and rising tide. But I've got to stick to the plan knowing eventually a storm will arrive and it's not a matter of "if" but "when".

The majority of the fleet will remain anchored at port waiting for the next Low Tide.
Preparing boats to depart (establish long positions).Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3040)Neap Tide (VIX around 13)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an in…

High Tide Confirmation

Another King High Tide was established today and it is a fairly young High Tide at only 21 days old. This Tide could continue to somewhere around 3100.

Might be able to send out some boats in the next few weeks!

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3023)Neap Tide (VIX around 13)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other components that…

Course And Heading 10/21/19

I am sailing part of my fleet in what appears to be a 17 day old High Tide with the potential to rise for another 15 to 37+ days which could crest sometime between November 5 and November 25.

However, the S&P is only 35 points below the High Tide confirmation range of 3039 to 3102 and if it reaches this level, the High Tide might end abruptly.

The majority of the fleet will remain anchored at port waiting for the next Low Tide.
No new cruises (long positions) planned.Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Rising High Tide (S&P at 3004)Neap Tide (VIX @ 14.4)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investme…

Rip Tide Season

We are now entering Rip Tide Season.
Rip Tide: A strong flow either way. Rip Tides happen when there is news or earning about a stock, or political or economic unrest, and during this time a stock can move violently in one direction or another. A classic Rip Tide example is BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond) Trade #41:
12/24/18 Low Tide $10.4604/10/19 High Tide $19.57 (earnings released after close)04/11/19 Rip Tide opening price of $17.0808/15/19 Low Tide $7.31 (127 days of pain if no STOP-LOSS)10/15/19 $12.36 As you can see, BBBY Trade #41 has been a decent trade as long as you avoided the Rip Tide near $19.57.

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Receding High Tide (S&P falling from an all-time high of 3027.98)Spring Tide (VIX rising to 22.04)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of futu…

Course And Heading 10/14/19

It looks like we are possibly in a 10 day old High Tide that should rise to between 3039 and 3102. Three of the last four High Tides expanded around 54 days on average and, over the last couple of years, High Tides have lasted 32 days on average.

Late last week I returned four boats to port and if we are in a High Tide then I returned my boats early and I will fight the inevitable feeling of disappointment or calculating "what could have been" over the next few weeks.

The right attitude is to simply appreciate the wonderful time spent at sea on the boats that recently returned to port and then patiently await the next time to set sail. I do not have conviction in the market right now so I am keeping it safe.
No new cruises (long positions) planned.Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Rising High Tide (S&P at 2969)Moving Toward Neap Tide (VIX is around 16…