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Course And Heading 08/19/19

The Course And Heading was disrupted last week due to a much needed vacation which included time spent on the real open sea!

The Low Tide might have ended at 2822 on August 5th. If that is true, we are 14 days into the rising High Tide and should see growth up to 3,100 over the next 2 months. However, we are already at 2926 so expect some volatility on the way up. Otherwise, we are still in Low Tide and will test 2822 once again.

Therefore:
No new long positions planned.No short positions planned.Hold existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
Rising from a Low Tide (S&P rising from 2822)Moderate Tide (VIX at 17.12)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks includin…

Course And Heading 08/05/19

It's been a while since the last storm. Stormy weather arrived right on schedule as the High Tide ended on July 26, 2019, 53 days since the June 3, 2019 Low Tide of 2729. The two previous High Tides expanded 54 and 53 days respectively.

We are at the end of Rip Tide Season and the fed funds target has been announced and China just blew some wind into today's storm with a trade war response. The weather is ugly with a Spring Tide and almost Rip Tide conditions but that can also be a good time to start preparing to leave the dock. It is important to not leave the dock to soon, the S&P currently sits at 2875 and is much more attractive at 2808 or even 2729. As always, proceed with caution.

Therefore:
Some new long positions planned. Not going "all in".No new short positions planned.Hold existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
Receding High Tide (S&P falling from an all-time high of 3027.98)Spring Tide (VIX rising to 22.04)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More Abo…

RIP TIDE UPDATES 07/29/19

$BBBY 04/10/19 $19.57 Today $9.67 -$GOOGL 04/29/19 $1,296.97 Today $1,230.20 -$CRM 06/07/19 $162.99 Today: $155.52 -$JNJ 06/25/19 $144.98 Today: $130.21 -$AMZN 07/11/19 $2,035.80 Today: $1,890.54 -$CAT 07/16/19 $140.62 Today: $132.85 -$STLD 07/22/19 $31.02 Today: $32.18 +$T 07/22/19 $32.18 Today: $34.44 +Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P sitting at an all-time high around 3017)Neap Tide (VIX approaching 12)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a C…

Course And Heading 07/29/19

Here we are in the middle of Rip Tide Season and all eyes are on the Federal Reserve and their fed funds target decision this Wednesday. The current tide has been rising for 53 days and is 11% above the June 3rd Low Tide of 2729. The previous High Tide, ending on 05/01/19, rose for 54 days and the High Tide before that, ending on 02/25/19, rose for 53 days as well. Therefore:
No new long positions planned.No new short positions planned.Hold or sell existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P sitting near an all-time high at 3020)Neap Tide (VIX very low at 12.64)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not…

What Is A Stock Index?

A stock index groups stocks together to track the overall performance of the group. I use stock indexes like the S&P 500 measure the Tide Level. When the S&P 500 is rising the Tide is rising, when the S&P 500 is falling the Tide is falling.

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P sitting near an all-time high at 2976)Neap Tide (VIX rising to 14.45)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and persona…

Course And Heading 07/22/19

The current tide had been rising for 42 days and rose to 11% above the June 3rd Low Tide of 2729. $T is down below a price I returned to the dock with which is tempting me to take it for a spin again BUT... $T has a potential Rip Tide this week with an earnings release on Wednesday. In addition, our debt-fueled economy does not give me confidence that the current tide will continue to rise. So, not wanting to get caught in a Rip Tide and the potential for the tide to recede:
No new long positions planned.No new short positions planned.Hold or sell existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P sitting near an all-time high at 2976)Neap Tide (VIX rising to 14.45)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment retur…

Choosing Symbols And Timing Trades

Choosing symbols and timing trades is basically what I do. There are terms like "fundamentals" and strategies like "value investing" and "technical trading" that guide investor decision making. Here's my take on choosing a symbol to trade (or if I put it in my blog terms, how I choose a "boat" to set sail with.)

I use a combination of several criteria when choosing a boat (symbol) to sail with. Here are some of the considerations:
The boat structure and durability. I've set sea with some terrible symbols and each treacherous voyage with a weak boat has been stressful and sometimes painful. To determine the boat's integrity and reliability I will look at various factors such as:Is the symbol profitable?How much debt does the symbol have?How long has the symbol been in business?Is the symbol growing?What is the symbol's P/E ratio?What industry or sector is the symbol in? What is the outlook for this sector? Do I have an interest in …

What Is The Cost Of This Stock?

The Internet has empowered buyers to shop with comparative knowledge of prices. The price we pay for something should not be a mystery, surprise or disappointment.

When comparing prices for symbols it is important to understand the number of shares outstanding and the market cap.

Consider the price of XYZ vs ABC. Let's say we can buy XYZ for $4.00 per share and we can buy ABC for $40.00 per share. On the surface it is easy to say XYZ shares are $36.00 lower than ABC shares. But that does not necessarily mean XYZ shares are less expensive than ABC shares.

In this example, XYZ has 100,000,000 shares outstanding and ABC has 1,000,000 shares outstanding. XYZ, priced at $4.00 per share is trading at a value of $400,000,000 ($4.00 X 100,000,000 shares outstanding) while ABC, priced at $40.00 per share is trading at a value of $40,000,000 ($40.00 X 1,000,000 shares outstanding). On the surface XYZ value is $360,000,000 more than ABC, but this does not necessarily mean XYZ shares are more…

RIP TIDE UPDATES 07/15/19

$JNJ has been making headlines lately with potential for a rip tide from news related to its talcum powder.$JNJ had a Low Tide of $128.52 on 05/29/19 and previous to that it hit $121 on 12/24/18. However, $JNJ just hit a High Tide of $144.98 on 06/25/19 and despite the negative news it has only dropped to around $135. I am not buying on the news and will keep an eye on $JNJ looking for the next Low Tide.

April 11, 2019: $BBBY 04/10/19 $19.57 Today $11.12
April 30, 2019: $GOOGL 04/29/19 $1,296.97 Today $1,149.79
June 13, 2019: $CRM 06/07/19 $162.99 Today: $158.85

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P sitting at an all-time high around 3017)Neap Tide (VIX approaching 12)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns …

$JNJ Trade #43

$JNJ Trade #43

Trade Rank: #58

First purchase: February 23, 2006 @ $58.68.

Last purchase: February 24, 2006 @ $58.65.

Recent price: July 15, 2019 @ $134.90 (up 130% from the first purchase price)

Total Purchases: 2

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P sitting at an all-time high around 3017)Neap Tide (VIX approaching 12)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other compon…