Posts

Showing posts from April, 2019

Rip Tide Season GOOG or GOOGL

In my post titled "Rip Tide Season" I used BBBY  Trade #41 as an example of Rip Tide activity. GOOG or GOOGL (see GOOG or GOOGL: Which Stock Do You Buy?) is in a Rip Tide today. Check out the prices for GOOGL:
04/29/19 all-time high price of $1,296.97 (earnings released after close)04/30/19 opening price of $1,190.63 That's over a hundred point drop in a matter of hours however, to put today's open of $1,190.63 into perspective, it is priced right back where GOOGL was on 04/02/19. So had I set sail on GOOGL at the right time, and was willing to deal with the potential Rip Tide from the earnings release, I could have either sold (returned to port) before the storm for a nice profit or, for a longer term play, I could've ridden out the storm. With Trading Tide Levels so high recently, I am reluctant to set course far out to sea (longer term trades) and would rather cruise close to the coasts.
Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P hit a high of 2949 yesterday and the…

$T Trade #103

$T Trade #103

Didn't I learn my lesson investing in telecom from WCOM Trade #4???

Once smartphones became an extension of the human anatomy, I became more interested in telecom stocks.
WCOM Trade #4VYTL Trade #25Q Trade #31MOT Trade #39S Trade #42VZ Trade #44LVLT Trade #54PALM Trade #62TLAB Trade #78 With a strong dividend yield, T became a top target and the 103rd stock traded. T has a lot of debt so I'm not overly excited about it long term but so far the trades have been mediocre but the return has been strong because of the dividend. I've also had experience with Time Warner (formerly TWX Trade #23) which T acquired in 2018. I might refer to this trade as my "Game Of Thrones Trade" because of HBO.

Trade Rank: 90

Average Daily Price Range: $0.53

First purchase: February 5, 2018 @ $36.717.

Last purchase: December 24, 2018 @ $27.6673.

Recent price: April 29, 2019 @ $30.88 (down -16% from the first purchase price)

Total Purchases: 24

Nibbling on T as the price has…

Course And Heading 04/29/19

Once again, the tide remains high during rip tide season and the forecast remains pleasant. There is one potential storm this week with AUY Trade #91 reporting earnings. Let's hope for some good news as we just endured a recent storm with this stock when they sold one of their key assets.

Therefore, I am continuing the same heading to start the week:
No new long positions plannedNo new short positions plannedHold existing positions (continuing prior established headings) and will possibly sell existing positions if there is a run up. I am getting more cautious as it has now been about 42 days since the last low tide.Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P hit a high of 2940 last week and the last Low Tide was 2722 on March 8, 2019)Strong Neap Tide (VIX hit a low of 12.08 last week)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
Facebook
Twitter

This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted …

REFLECTION: Course And Heading 04/22/19

I left the dock last week with beautiful skies and water knowing the T Trade #103 earnings could be a storm I'd need to navigate. I chose to stay the course and deal with the storm should it develop. The storm developed as follows:
04/23/19 High of 32.28 (almost matching the highest price (32.32) T has been since the last low of 28.92 on 02/07/19)04/24/19 EARNINGS RELEASE Low of 30.05 (a drop of 2.23 from the day prior high)04/29/19 High so far today of 31.31 As you can see, the EARNINGS RELEASE storm created both a selling opportunity before the storm and a quick buying opportunity during the storm. Because I want to stay diversified and I like the dividend I am earning on T, I chose to hold and not establish any new positions even though the opportunity did present itself.
Course And Heading 04/22/19:

The tide remains high during rip tide season and the forecast remains pleasant (VIX @ 12.09). There is one potential storm this week with T Trade #103 reporting earnings on Thursday.

REFLECTION: Course And Heading 04/15/19

I ventured out last week during a high tide during rip tide season with a pleasant forecast (VIX @ 12.71.) See Course And Heading 04/15/19

Unfortunately, an unexpected storm related to AUY Trade #91 hit pretty hard as AUY announced the sale of one of their key assets and the stock reacted poorly dropping over 15%. A STOP LOSS should have triggered but this is one of my few long term positions. Hope I don't regret continuing to hold this stock.

Bad weather comes with the territory and you have to be able to withstand the storms and choose wisely. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P hit a high of 2918 last week and the last Low Tide was 2722 on March 8, 2019)Strong Neap Tide (VIX @ 12.09)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
Facebook
Twitter

This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. No…

Course And Heading 04/22/19

The tide remains high during rip tide season and the forecast remains pleasant (VIX @ 12.09). There is one potential storm this week with T Trade #103 reporting earnings on Thursday.

Therefore, I am continuing the same heading to start the week:

No new long positions plannedNo new short positions plannedHold existing positions (continuing prior established headings) and will possibly sell existing positions if there is a run up. I am getting more cautious as it has now been about 42 days since the last low tide.
Trading Tide Levels (learn more):
High Tide (S&P hit a high of 2918 last week and the last Low Tide was 2722 on March 8, 2019)Strong Neap Tide (VIX @ 12.09)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
Facebook
Twitter

This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns a…

AUY Trade #91

AUY Trade #91

I used to watch Jim Cramer on the television show Mad Money and I'll never forget Cramer yelling "YAMANA!!" at the TV during the lightning round. That's when I began trading YAMANA Gold.

This trade isn't over yet but I've waited and waited for this stock to return to it's "glory hole". I've been holding some positions since September 2014 (yep, I wasn't using a STOP-LOSS at the time) and if it ever rebounds then maybe it will rise in the trade ranks. I thought trading a gold mining stock would be a hedge if there was an overall pullback in the stock market.

Here are three takeaways from Trade #91. First, someday I'll devote a blog to debt. In short, I hate debt whether it is in my personal life or in business and AUY has A LOT OF IT. Today, they sold a mine and are talking about shareholder returns (it's about time) so maybe we'll see some positive momentum. Second, I don't care to own gold and I don't v…

REFLECTION: Rip Tide Season BBBY

In my post titled "Rip Tide Season" I used BBBY Trade #41 as an example of Rip Tide activity. Check out the prices:
04/10/19 high price of $19.57 (earnings released after close)04/11/19 opening price of $17.0804/12/19 high price of $18.2304/13/19 low price (so far today at the time of this post)  $17.01 That is a whipsaw I am going to continue to avoid.
Trading Tide Levels (learn more):
High Tide (S&P hit a high of 2910 last week and the last Low Tide was 2722 on March 8, 2019)Strong Neap Tide (VIX @ 12.71)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
Facebook
Twitter

This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, re…

Course And Heading 04/15/19

Again, I love the water and I use boating as a metaphor for trading.

Each week it is important to review the sea conditions, nautical charts and weather forecast before I set sail. If I venture out unprepared into rough waters and I might end up sinking myself!

The sea conditions, nautical charts and weather forecast all contribute to my heading and course. My heading is used to describe the direction I am pointing and my course is used to describe the direction I am actually moving.

I am venturing out this week while the tide is high during rip tide season (earnings) and the forecast is pleasant (VIX @ 12.71), Tiger won the Masters (probably not a factor in my plans this week but it was a great story) and there is not a lot of political unrest (other than the Mueller Report storm cloud that still shows in the distance from time to time.)

Therefore, I am charting the following heading to start the week: likely no new long positions to establish, no new short positions to establish, ho…

Nearby Rip Tide and USB Trade #104

A couple of today's headlines:
U.S. Stocks Rise as Bank Earnings Kick Off; Two of the nation's biggest banks reported earnings that beat expectationsPositive Tone Set as Big Banks Top Estimates and Hint at Economic Strength As you can see, the "news spin machine" is all positive today on the banks. I do not chart my heading based on the news spin machine (I probably allowed the news to influence my early trading but not any longer!)

USB is a bank I've traded and followed pretty closely. I'm not going to buy USB based on the news today, especially given we are in a HIGH TIDE and NEAP TIDE period of low volatility. I could buy some and maybe make a little but I would need to proceed with caution or perhaps hold it for a while. Depends on the trading strategy which I use the terms heading and course to describe.
Recent Low 3/28/19: $47.57Average Daily Price Range: $0.81Recent price: April 11, 2019 closed @ $49.61 (down -5% from the first purchase price)Trade Rank:…

Rip Tide Season BBBY

You'll see me referencing Trading Tide Levels (see blog post "The Tides"). I use these tide levels to try to know where the general market is at or trending before I create a trade strategy.

We are now entering Rip Tide Season.
Rip Tide: A strong flow either way. Rip Tides happen when there is news or earning about a stock, or political or economic unrest, and during this time a stock can move violently in one direction or another. A classic Rip Tide example is BBBY  Trade #41 (Bed Bath & Beyond):
03/20/19 low price of $13.4604/10/19 high price of $19.57 (earnings released after close)04/11/19 opening price of $17.08 As you can see, BBBY  Trade #41 has been a great trade since 03/20/19 but for those who bought near $19.57, today's opening price is not what you'd like to see.

Trading Tide Levels (learn more):
Fading High Tide (S&P hit a high of 2896 yesterday and the last Low Tide was 2722 on March 8, 2019)Strong (but weakening) Neap Tide (VIX @ 13.97)Subscri…

Dividends

A dividend is a sum of money paid regularly (typically quarterly) by a company to its shareholders out of its profits (or reserves). Dividends can be nice (see dividend yield) but they also impact the stock price.
The declared divided is the amount per share that will be paid out.The dividend yield is the dividend expressed as a percentage of the current share price.An ex-dividend date is the day a stock starts trading without the value of its next dividend payment. If you hold a stock before the ex-dividend date, you are entitled to the declared dividend. If you buy a stock on or after the ex-dividend date you are not entitled to the declared dividend.The dividend payable date is the date it pays out. Today is T Trade #103's, ex-dividend date. T pays a $0.51 cent dividend on shares owned before today. Yesterday T closed at $32.39 and today it opened at $31.85 or $0.54 cents lower than it closed yesterday. An opening stock price of around $0.51 lower than yesterday's close is t…

March 2019 Return

As of the end of March, 2019:
YTD Return: 13%1 Year Return 8%3 Year Return 7% average annual return5 Year Return 0% average annual return10 Year Return 24% average annual returnLifetime Return -29% (-2.5% average annual return) Trading Tide Levels (learn more):
High Tide (S&P closed March at 2834 and the last Low Tide was 2722 on March 8, 2019)Neap Tide (VIX @ 13.71)
Subscribe to 10KT emailsLearn More About 10KT
Facebook
Twitter

This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and …

The Tides

There is a saying that "a rising tide lifts all boats." Well, in my experience, this saying seems to be generally true of the stock market. Therefore, it is important to know where the general market is trending before you execute your strategy.

I enjoy boating and being near the water so if you don't mind I'll be using the tide terms as an indicator of where I think the market at different moments. For the purposes of 10KTrades, the overall market is considered "the tide" and each individual stock lot is a vessel or "boat".

Here are the Trading Tide Level definitions as used in this blog:
Low Tide: The lowest level of the tide. A long term indicator and sometimes a good time to buy stocks.High Tide: The highest level of the tide. A long term indicator and sometimes a good time to sell stocks.King Tide: One of the highest or lowest tides of the year.Neap Tide: A smaller difference between high and low tides and is a short term (almost daily) indica…