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Showing posts from June, 2019

Course And Heading 06/24/19

The current tide has been rising for 18 days and is 9% above the June 3rd Low Tide of 2729. The conditions at the dock are calm and enticing but the tide is likely to recede and there are storm clouds on the horizon.
No new long positions planned.No new short positions planned.Hold or sell existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P is near the all-time high at 2955 today)Neap Tide (VIX is hanging around 15.5 today)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in con…

$TEX Trade #95

$TEX Trade #95

Trade Rank: 1

Average Daily Price Range: $1.07

First purchase: November 19, 2008 @ $10.7299.

Last purchase: February 4, 2015 @ $23.7593.

Recent price: June 17, 2019 @ $28.63 (up 267% from the first purchase price)

Total Purchases: 151

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P is at 2897 today)Neap Tide (VIX is hanging around 15.37 today)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financia…

The Returns

First, the bad news, I have yet to recover from some bad trades. Namely, $WCOM trade #4 and $AUY Trade #91. Had it not been for those two trades, I'd be up (see Avoid "What Could Have Been".) Overall, I am down -27% for my career at this time (-2.3% average annual return). Not good.

Now, the good news, I've averaged +23% year over year returns over the last 10 years. $WCOM trade #4 decimated my portfolio (see STOP-LOSS) and I'm still recovering. If I can average an 8% return each year moving forward, my break-even will finally happen in the next couple of years. To put it into perspective, $WCOM trade #4, in just a three year period, wiped out positive returns for the next twenty years!

When I look at my results, it is clear a STOP-LOSS would have made a huge difference. Blaming my competitive and hopelessly optimistic nature, I've held my losers a lot longer than I've held my winners. I would've been better off buying and holding a fund that tracked …

Course And Heading 06/17/19

Last week was uneventful with the S&P taking a break after rising about 6% the week before. With the FOMC meeting this week, I am maintaining a safe heading to start the week:
No new long positions planned.No new short positions planned.Hold or sell existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P is at 2897 today)Neap Tide (VIX is hanging around 15.37 today)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensiv…

Transaction Statistics

Transaction Statistics:
Over 10,000 transactions for 104 different stocks.61 stocks have been winners (59%) and 43 stocks have been losers (41%).42 symbols are no longer listed in the markets. Assume they are out of business, have been acquired, went private or something similar.Overall, averaged holding a purchase for about 18 days. However:Between the years 1999 and 2010 held each purchase for about 1 day.Between the years 2011 and 2014 held each purchase for about 6 days.Since 2015 held each purchase for about 60 days. Blaming my competitive and hopelessly optimistic nature, I've held my losers a heck of a lot longer than I've held my winners. Using a STOP-LOSS has been one of the most important lessons learned.

Trading Tide Levels: High Tide (S&P is at 2888 this morning)Neap Tide (VIX is hanging around 16 this morning)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all …

RIP TIDE ALERT: $CRM

$CRMRip Tide activity:
06/04/19 low price of $142.51 (earnings released)06/07/19 high price of $162.9906/11/19 low price of $148.79Trading Tide Levels: High Tide (S&P is at 2888 this morning)Neap Tide (VIX is hanging around 16 this morning)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other components that make up your own financial situation.

REFLECTION 2: Rip Tide Season $BBBY

$BBBY Trade #41 continues to fall, shaving off over $7 from the price around the earnings release:
04/10/19 high price of $19.57 (earnings released after close)04/11/19 opening price of $17.0804/12/19 high price of $18.2304/13/19 low price (at the time of the post)  $17.0106/13/19 low price of $12.06Trading Tide Levels: High Tide (S&P is at 2888 this morning)Neap Tide (VIX is hanging around 16 this morning)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Cert…

Course And Heading 06/10/19

Last week had quite the Spring Tide action with the S&P rising about 6% from 2729 to 2898 this morning. Fortunately, I caught part of that move as I established a new position in FXAIX last Monday just before the rebound began on Tuesday. Because of the sharp rise, I am maintaining a safe heading to start the week:
No new long positions planned.No new short positions planned.Hold existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P is at 2898 this morning)Neap Tide (VIX is hanging around 16 this morning)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources…

Long Term vs Short Term

Of the 105 stocks I've purchased:
50 symbols are up from the price I first bought them.12 symbols are down from the price I first bought them.43 symbols are no longer listed for trading in the markets. They are out of business, been acquired, now private companies or something similar. Over half, 55 (52.4%) of the 105 stocks I've purchased are either down today compared to my first purchase price or are no longer traded. This really puts into perspective how difficult it would have been to pick individual stocks to hold them for the long term.

This information clearly indicates in my case it would have been better to purchase a good, low cost index fund that contains a mixture of stocks rather than to pick individual stocks for the long term. This might explain why half of US stock fund assets are now invested in index funds.

Trading Tide Levels:
Low Tide (S&P is at 2746 this morning)Spring Tide (VIX is hanging around 19 this morning)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More Abo…

Course And Heading 06/03/19

With the trade war tensions, it is very difficult to determine the direction of the market, although it is becoming more attractive, so I am maintaining a safe heading to start the week:
No new long positions planned.No new short positions planned.Hold existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
Low Tide (S&P is at 2746 this morning)Spring Tide (VIX is hanging around 19 this morning)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a c…