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Showing posts from October, 2019

Course And Heading 10/28/19

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A King High Tide was established Friday October 24 and could continue to somewhere around 3100 and to the middle or end of November.

This is a time where patience really comes into play. The ocean looks so inviting with a calm VIX and rising tide. But I've got to stick to the plan knowing eventually a storm will arrive and it's not a matter of "if" but "when".

The majority of the fleet will remain anchored at port waiting for the next Low Tide.
Preparing boats to depart (establish long positions).Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3040)Neap Tide (VIX around 13)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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High Tide Confirmation

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Another King High Tide was established today and it is a fairly young High Tide at only 21 days old. This Tide could continue to somewhere around 3100.

Might be able to send out some boats in the next few weeks!

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3023)Neap Tide (VIX around 13)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other components that…
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Course And Heading 10/21/19

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I am sailing part of my fleet in what appears to be a 17 day old High Tide with the potential to rise for another 15 to 37+ days which could crest sometime between November 5 and November 25.

However, the S&P is only 35 points below the High Tide confirmation range of 3039 to 3102 and if it reaches this level, the High Tide might end abruptly.

The majority of the fleet will remain anchored at port waiting for the next Low Tide.
No new cruises (long positions) planned.Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Rising High Tide (S&P at 3004)Neap Tide (VIX @ 14.4)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investme…
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Rip Tide Season

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We are now entering Rip Tide Season.
Rip Tide: A strong flow either way. Rip Tides happen when there is news or earning about a stock, or political or economic unrest, and during this time a stock can move violently in one direction or another. A classic Rip Tide example is BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond) Trade #41:
12/24/18 Low Tide $10.4604/10/19 High Tide $19.57 (earnings released after close)04/11/19 Rip Tide opening price of $17.0808/15/19 Low Tide $7.31 (127 days of pain if no STOP-LOSS)10/15/19 $12.36 As you can see, BBBY Trade #41 has been a decent trade as long as you avoided the Rip Tide near $19.57.

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Receding High Tide (S&P falling from an all-time high of 3027.98)Spring Tide (VIX rising to 22.04)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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Course And Heading 10/14/19

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It looks like we are possibly in a 10 day old High Tide that should rise to between 3039 and 3102. Three of the last four High Tides expanded around 54 days on average and, over the last couple of years, High Tides have lasted 32 days on average.

Late last week I returned four boats to port and if we are in a High Tide then I returned my boats early and I will fight the inevitable feeling of disappointment or calculating "what could have been" over the next few weeks.

The right attitude is to simply appreciate the wonderful time spent at sea on the boats that recently returned to port and then patiently await the next time to set sail. I do not have conviction in the market right now so I am keeping it safe.
No new cruises (long positions) planned.Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Rising High Tide (S&P at 2969)Moving Toward Neap Tide (VIX is around 16…
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Boats Returning To Port

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It's a beautiful day on the sea today! Wish I was sailing the entire fleet today but discipline rules the day. Time to return the following boats to port:

$STLD I - 9 day cruise

$AMTD I - 9 day cruise

$CAT I - 9 day cruise

$CAT II - 8 day cruise

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Rising High Tide (S&P at 2977)Moving Toward Neap Tide (VIX is around 16)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any information, third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a com…
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$CAT Dividend Declaration

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I have two boats launched $CAT I and $CAT II and that can earn dividends as today $CAT declared a divided of $1.03 for shareholders of record at the close of business October 21, 2019.

October 18, 2019 is the Ex-Dividend date and consequentially the $CAT stock price will be adjusted by the exchange around $1.03 lower overnight to reflect the $1.03 worth of value that will be removed from the stock in order to pay the upcoming dividend.

Will this declaration influence my sailing? Depends on where the Tide is between now and then. If the stock is dropping, I probably still have to execute a STOP LOSS regardless of the upcoming dividend.

The $1.03 dividend is payable on November 20, 2019.

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Mid Tide (S&P at 2915)Spring Tide (VIX is around 19)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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$T Ex-Dividend Date

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I have three boats launched $T I, $T II and $T III that earn dividends.

On September 26th, $T declared a divided of $0.51 for shareholders of record at the close of business October 10, 2019.

Today is the Ex-Dividend date and consequentially the $T stock price was adjusted by the exchange around $0.51 lower overnight to reflect the $0.51 worth of value that was removed from the stock in order to pay the upcoming dividend.

Those who buy the stock today or going forward are not entitled to the dividend.

The $0.51 dividend is payable on November 1, 2019.

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Mid Tide (S&P at 2915)Spring Tide (VIX is around 19)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing …
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Analyst Downgrades & Upgrades

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Search for news about one of your stocks and you might get a dizzying range of results. It's often difficult to wade through the clutter to find useful information.

This morning I am inspecting one of my boat families $CAT after seeing a note that UBS maintained $CAT at sell this is just a couple weeks after Citigroup maintained $CAT at buy. As with all third party resource, I'm not sure how accurate this is but here's a list of $CAT analyst ratings history: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/CAT/price-target/

Now, seeing or hearing someone say "sell" doesn't exactly instill confidence and if you don't have the right mindset, it can cause a little bit or even a lot of panic. Similarly, seeing or hearing someone say "buy" could cause irrational exuberance that can be expensive.

So who should I trust?

Well, when I do my inspections, I read the news without emotion and the truth is I trust no one. Analyst downgrades and upgrades are yet another…
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Course And Heading 10/07/19

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Last week we established a new 22 day old Low Tide that might have stopped receding at 2855.94. With a fleet of about 12 - 15 boats, I launched 4 of them.

If we are now in a High Tide, my gains are limited by the few boats I launched (which can be frustrating). But a gain is a gain and by limiting the number of boats in the water, damage will be mitigated if we are still in Low Tide searching for lower lows. I can then launch more boats at the appropriate levels.

Reminder to self: If we are in a High Tide I must be patient as to not head back to the harbor too soon as in the past I have sold winners way too early (and held losers way to long). I'll be trying to remain at sea until the Tide reaches 3039 to 3102.

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Mid Tide (S&P at 2939)Moving toward Spring Tide (VIX is around 18)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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Low Water Mark

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20 day old Low Tide bottomed on October 4, 2019 down 5%.

Fair winds and following seas!

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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other components that make up your own financial situation.
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Slow And Steady

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Three boats departed yesterday and the majority stayed moored at the dock.

Launched another boat this morning.

Diversify, Diversify, Diversify

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Confused Tide (S&P at 2887)Spring Tide (VIX is around 20)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other components that make up your own financial situation.
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$0 commissions

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Over time, hidden trading have really added up (see "The Fees And Costs Of Trading"). $AMTD has made a lot more money from my account than I have!

When I first started trading in 1999, I paid a $13 commission for each trade on $AMTD's platform. Later, that same commission was reduced to $6.95.

Beginning today, that commission is $0! Welcome to $0 commissions. Nice.

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Confused Tide (S&P at 2887)Spring Tide (VIX is around 20)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of an…
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September 2019 Returns

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MTD: +2% over previous monthYTD Return: +31%1 Year Return +20%3 Year Avg Annual Return +8% per year5 Year Avg Annual Return +17% per year10 Year Avg Annual Return +30% per yearLifetime Avg Annual Return -1.5% per year Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 2992)Neap Tide (VIX around 15)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other component…
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Low Tide Confirmation

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The most recent Tide, a King High Tide, crested on September 12th and we have now been in a Low Tide for the last 20 days. This Tide should recede to somewhere between today's low (2893 so far) and 2798.

Three boats casted-off this morning during this storm. As you might remember from "Diversify, Diversify, Diversify", I want to avoid going "all in" as I enter into a storm. This strategy leaves me plenty of boats moored at the dock that can cast-off at any notice if the storm worsens or continues.

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Confused Tide (S&P at 2907)Mid Tide (VIX slightly rising to around 18)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or…
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$AMTD Trade #16

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$AMTD Trade #16

$AMTD is getting crushed today (down 23%) by an announcement from Charles Schwab.

Trade Rank: #81

First purchase: September 6, 1999 @ $20.50.

Last purchase: September 8, 2006 @ $16.59.

Recent price: October 1, 2019 @ $35.80 (up 75% from the first purchase price)

Total Purchases: 28

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Confused Tide (S&P at 2948)Mid Tide (VIX slightly rising to around 18)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction w…
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Managing Turbulence

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Last Thursday I posted "Roller Coaster Emotions" while I was feeling stuck at the dock. Maybe "dock fever" is something like cabin fever? 

Well this week has been no different as yesterday and this morning the Tide looked like it was rushing in. And early yesterday I had posted in "Course And Heading 09/30/19" that I felt we were in a Low Tide. Was I right? Was I wrong?

Yesterday we were up, this morning we were up and then BOOM, now we are down pretty big. This is a constant reminder that whatever you do, stick to your plan and try to leave your emotions out of it.

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Confused Tide (S&P at 2948)Mid Tide (VIX slightly rising to around 18)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a…
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