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Showing posts from October, 2019

Course And Heading 10/28/19

A  King High Tide was established Friday  October 24 and could continue to somewhere around 3100 and to the middle or end of November. This is a time where patience really comes into play. The ocean  looks so inviting with a calm  VIX  and  rising tide . But I've got to stick to the plan knowing eventually a storm will arrive and it's not a matter of "if" but "when". The majority of the  fleet  will remain anchored at port waiting for the next  Low Tide . Preparing boats to depart (establish long positions). Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions). No  short positions  planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : High Tide  ( S&P  at 3040) Neap Tide  ( VIX  around 13) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass

High Tide Confirmation

Another  King High Tide  was established today and it is a fairly young  High Tide  at only 21 days old. This  Tide  could continue to somewhere around 3100. Might be able to send out some boats in the next few weeks! Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : High Tide  ( S&P  at 3023) Neap Tide  ( VIX  around 13) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and person

Course And Heading 10/21/19

I am sailing part of my fleet in what appears to be a 17 day old  High Tide  with the potential to rise for another 15 to 37+ days which could crest sometime between November 5 and November 25. However, the  S&P  is only 35 points below the  High Tide  confirmation range of 3039 to 3102 and if it reaches this level, the  High Tide  might end abruptly. The majority of the fleet will remain anchored at port waiting for the next  Low Tide . No new cruises (long positions) planned. Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions). No  short positions  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Rising High Tide  ( S&P  at 3004) Neap Tide  ( VIX  @ 14.4) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. No

Rip Tide Season

We are now entering  Rip Tide  Season. Rip Tide : A strong flow either way.  Rip Tides  happen when there is news or earning about a stock, or political or economic unrest, and during this time a stock can move violently in one direction or another. A classic  Rip Tide  example is  BBBY  (Bed Bath & Beyond) Trade #41: 12/24/18  Low Tide  $10.46 04/10/19  High Tide  $19.57 (earnings released after close) 04/11/19  Rip Tide  opening price of $17.08 08/15/19  Low Tide  $7.31 (127 days of pain if no STOP-LOSS ) 10/15/19 $12.36 As you can see,  BBBY  Trade #41 has been a decent trade as long as you avoided the  Rip Tide  near $19.57. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Receding High Tide  ( S&P  falling from an all-time high of 3027.98) Spring Tide  ( VIX  rising to 22.04) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all

Course And Heading 10/14/19

It looks like we are possibly in a 10 day old  High Tide  that should rise to between 3039 and 3102. Three of the last four  High Tides  expanded around 54 days on average and, over the last couple of years,  High Tides  have lasted 32 days on average. Late last week I returned four boats to port  and if we are in a  High Tide  then I returned my boats early and I will fight the inevitable feeling of disappointment or calculating " what could have been " over the next few weeks. The right attitude is to simply appreciate the wonderful time spent at sea on the boats that recently  returned to port  and then patiently await the next time to set sail. I do not have conviction in the market right now so I am keeping it safe. No new cruises (long positions) planned. Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions). No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Rising High Tide  ( S&P  at 2969)

Boats Returning To Port

It's a beautiful day on the sea today! Wish I was sailing the entire fleet today but discipline rules the day. Time to return the following boats to port: $STLD I - 9 day cruise $AMTD I - 9 day cruise $CAT I - 9 day cruise $CAT II - 8 day cruise Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Rising High Tide  ( S&P  at 2977) Moving Toward Neap Tide  ( VIX  is around 16) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any information, third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be

$CAT Dividend Declaration

I have two boats launched  $CAT I  and  $CAT II  and that can earn  dividends  as  today $CAT declared a divided  of $1.03 for shareholders of record at the close of business October 21, 2019. October 18, 2019 is the  Ex-Dividend date  and consequentially the  $CAT  stock price will be adjusted by the exchange around $1.03 lower overnight to reflect the $1.03 worth of value that will be removed from the stock in order to pay the upcoming  dividend . Will this declaration influence my sailing? Depends on where the  Tide  is between now and then. If the stock is dropping, I probably still have to execute a STOP LOSS  regardless of the upcoming  dividend . The $1.03  dividend  is payable on November 20, 2019. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Mid Tide  ( S&P  at 2915) Spring Tide  ( VIX  is around 19) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided

$T Ex-Dividend Date

I have three boats launched  $T I , $T II and $T III that earn dividends . On September 26th, $T declared a divided of $0.51 for shareholders of record at the close of business October 10, 2019. Today is the Ex-Dividend date and consequentially the  $T  stock price was adjusted by the exchange around $0.51 lower overnight to reflect the $0.51 worth of value that was removed from the stock in order to pay the upcoming  dividend . Those who buy the stock today or going forward are not entitled to the  dividend . The $0.51  dividend  is payable on November 1, 2019. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Mid Tide  ( S&P  at 2915) Spring Tide  ( VIX  is around 19) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a gu

Analyst Downgrades & Upgrades

Search for news about one of your stocks and you might get a dizzying range of results. It's often difficult to wade through the clutter to find useful information. This morning I am inspecting one of my boat families $CAT  after seeing a note that UBS  maintained  $CAT  at sell this is just a couple weeks after Citigroup maintained  $CAT  at buy. As with all third party resource, I'm not sure how accurate this is but here's a list of  $CAT  analyst ratings history:  https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/CAT/price-target/ Now, seeing or hearing someone say "sell" doesn't exactly instill confidence and if you don't have the right mindset , it can cause a little bit or even a lot of panic. Similarly, seeing or hearing someone say "buy" could cause irrational exuberance that can be expensive. So who should I trust? Well, when I do my inspections, I read the news without  emotion  and the truth is I trust no one. Analyst downgrades and upg

Course And Heading 10/07/19

Last week we established a new 22 day old Low Tide that might have stopped receding at 2855.94. With a fleet of about 12 - 15 boats, I launched 4 of them. If we are now in a  High Tide , my gains are limited by the few boats I launched ( which can be frustrating ). But a gain is a gain and by limiting the number of boats in the water, damage will be mitigated if we are still in  Low Tide  searching for lower lows. I can then launch more boats at the appropriate levels. Reminder to self: If we are in a  High Tide  I must be patient as to not head back to the harbor too soon as in the past I have sold winners way too early (and held losers way to long).  I'll be trying to remain at sea until the  Tide  reaches 3039 to 3102. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Mid Tide  ( S&P  at 2939) Moving toward Spring Tide  ( VIX  is around 18) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes

Low Water Mark

20 day old  Low Tide  bottomed on October 4, 2019 down 5%. Fair winds and following seas! Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other components that make up your own financial situation.

Slow And Steady

Three boats departed yesterday  and the majority stayed moored at the dock. Launched another boat this morning. Diversify, Diversify, Diversify Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Confused Tide  ( S&P  at 2887) Spring Tide  ( VIX  is around 20) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other components that make up your own

$0 commissions

Over time, hidden trading have really added up (see " The Fees And Costs Of Trading ").  $AMTD  has made a lot more money from my account than I have! When I first started trading in 1999, I paid a $13 commission for each trade on  $AMTD 's platform. Later, that same commission was reduced to $6.95. Beginning today, that commission is $0! Welcome to $0 commissions. Nice. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Confused Tide  ( S&P  at 2887) Spring Tide  ( VIX  is around 20) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any thir

September 2019 Returns

MTD: +2% over previous month YTD Return: +31% 1 Year Return +20% 3 Year Avg Annual Return +8% per year 5 Year Avg Annual Return +17% per year 10 Year Avg Annual Return +30% per year Lifetime Avg Annual Return -1.5% per year Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : High Tide  ( S&P  at 2992) Neap Tide  ( VIX  around 15) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensi

Low Tide Confirmation

The most recent  Tide , a  King High Tide , crested on September 12th and we have now been in a  Low Tide  for the last 20 days. This  Tide  should recede to somewhere between today's low (2893 so far) and 2798. Three boats casted-off this morning during this storm. As you might remember from " Diversify, Diversify, Diversify ", I want to avoid going "all in" as I enter into a storm. This strategy leaves me plenty of boats moored at the dock that can cast-off at any notice if the storm worsens or continues. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Confused Tide  ( S&P  at 2907) Mid Tide  ( VIX  slightly rising to around 18) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of fu

$AMTD Trade #16

$AMTD Trade #16 $AMTD  is getting crushed today (down 23%) by an announcement from Charles Schwab . Trade Rank: #81 First purchase: September 6, 1999 @ $20.50. Last purchase: September 8, 2006 @ $16.59. Recent price: October 1, 2019 @ $35.80 (up 75% from the first purchase price) Total Purchases: 28 Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Confused Tide  ( S&P  at 2948) Mid Tide  ( VIX  slightly rising to around 18) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any invest

Managing Turbulence

Last Thursday I posted " Roller Coaster Emotions " while I was feeling stuck at the dock. Maybe "dock fever" is something like cabin fever?  Well this week has been no different as yesterday and this morning the  Tide  looked like it was rushing in. And early yesterday I had posted in " Course And Heading 09/30/19 " that I felt we were in a  Low Tide . Was I right? Was I wrong? Yesterday we were up, this morning we were up and then BOOM, now we are down pretty big. This is a constant reminder that whatever you do, stick to your plan and try to leave your emotions out of it. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Confused Tide  ( S&P  at 2948) Mid Tide  ( VIX  slightly rising to around 18) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indica