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Showing posts from March, 2020

High Tide #4 Head Fake

Just when it looked like High Tide #4 was receding to begin Low Tide #5, the Tide began to rise again and High Tide #4 lived on, now up 21% from Low Tide #4.

Is it common for a High Tide to rise over 19% during a hurricane? Well, both the Dot-Com Bubble and the Great Recession each had 3 High Tides rise over 19%.

Same Course And Heading as yesterday:
Preparing some boats to depart around the 2000 - 2200 Tide Level.Keep cruising (hold) existing positions (even though the hurricane is likely not over, the market could rebound sharply and calling these boats in now would miss the bounce.)No short positions planned.Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 2630)Rip Tide (VIX around 51)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of futur…

Course And Heading 03/30/20

It is difficult to discuss Hurricane Corona as a financial crises when people are dying as a result of the horrible Coronavirus disease COVID-19. My heart goes out to all who have become sick or have died and everyone has been impacted by this terrible disease. We need to fight hard by social distancing to minimize the number of deaths. It is truly a health crises and the worst is yet to come.

This week, we either start day 40 of Hurricane Corona with:
We are still rising in High Tide #4, and/orThe hurricane is over with Low Tide #4 @ 2295.56, orLow Tide #5 (possibly established Friday @ 2520) Given the fact that both previous hurricanes lasted 930 and 512 days before they exhausted, it is likely doubtful that Hurricane Corona is over.

Therefore, here is the strategy:
Preparing some boats to depart around the 2000 - 2200 Tide Level.Keep cruising (hold) existing positions (even though the hurricane is likely not over, the market could rebound sharply and calling these boats in now would …

Course And Heading 03/23/20

A new Low TideHurricane CoronaLow Tide #4 has been established at 2295.56 down 7%. The averge Low Tide during a hurricane recedes between 16% and 18% so Low Tide #4 will possibly recede further.

We've now seen 7 Tides in the first 30 days of  Hurricane Corona. It took both previous hurricanes 272 and 278 days to experience 7 Tides. It seems like forever ago but it was only 1 week ago when we set Course And Heading 03/16/22 at 2708, 400 points higher than we are today.

Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

A few dinghies were splashed last week and all but one were called back to port after very short voyages. The rest of the fleet that has been moored at the dock, stayed at the dock and the sailing fleet continues to ride out the storms.
Preparing some boats to depart around the 2050 Tide Level.Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing positions on strength.No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Low Tide (S&P at 23…

Is That A Dinghy?

When I refer to a "boat", I am refering to a stock symbol position. For example, let's say I am favorable to the stock $KHC. I might sail (buy) "$KHC I" at a certain price and then sail (buy) "$KCH II" at another price and "$KHC III" at yet another price. In this case, I have 3 boats sailing, all using the symbol $KHC. The boats might be all the same size or different sizes.
In addition to the symbol selection, there is also a decision to make about the size of the boat. The type of "boat" has very little to do with the performance of the boat, rather it is the portion it takes up of the total dollars available in my fleet. There are dinghys, inflatable boats, jon boats, deckboats, flats boats, powerboats, house boats,  yachts, blue water boats, cargo ships, aircraft carriers and huge passenger ships (I call these huge boats "Titanics") and many more. For the purposes of 10KTrades, the larger the single investment purchase…

Course And Heading 03/16/20

High Tide has been established at 2708.47 by a whipsaw 10% move in 1 day. A few boats, dinghies (small investments), were sailed last week and were called back in with the High Tide rushing in. The rest of the fleet that has been moored at the dock, stayed at the dock last week and the sailing fleet got some calm water to end the week.

Hurricane Corona Watch:
First Low Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↓ 14% over 21 daysGreat Recession ↓ 11% over 46 daysCorona: ↓ 16% over 9 daysFirst High Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↑ 11% over 12 daysGreat Recession ↑ 8% over 15 daysCorona: ↑ 10% over 4 daysSecond Low Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↓ 8% over 23 daysGreat Recession ↓ 17% over 43 daysCorona: ↓ 21% over 9 daysSecond High Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↑ 12% over 100 daysGreat Recession ↑ 10% over 9 daysCorona: ↑ 10% over 1 day (so far) Aside from the speed of the first 2 Coronatides, the tides are remarkably similar. Therefore: Preparing some boats (dinghies) t…

Hurricane Corona

As you know, 10KTrades uses sailing as a metaphor for investing using terms like boats, fleet, tides, storms and more.

A "Storm" is particularly bad weather often causing a Low Tide and possibly even a Rip TideStorms happen occasionally as a result of bad weather such as bad economic or political news.

A Hurricane is a violent storm of large magnitude and often has several "storms within the storm". The entire world is now hearing about Hurricane Corona. Hurricane Corona is a financial storm with a devastating beginning never seen before.

To put it into perspective, let's start to compare Hurricane Corona (20-?) to our last two hurricanes: Hurricane Great Recession (07-09) and Hurricane Dot-Com Bubble (00-02).
Hurricane Dot-Com Bubble (00-02) began March 24, 2000 at 1552.87 and lasted 930 days until October 10, 2002 dropping 51% to 768.63.Hurricane Great Recession (07-09) began October 11, 2007 at 1576.09 and lasted 512 days until March 6, 2009 dropping 58% to…

Course And Heading 03/09/20

Hello Hurricane Corona. Although it has only been 19 days, it seems forever ago since the Record King High Tide crested at 3394 on February 19th.

The fleet that is moored at the dock, stayed at the dock last week and the sailing fleet continued to get battered by a crazy roller coaster ride named Hurricane Corona.

This week's weather remains a guessing game. It looks likely the Tide will pull all the way back to the October 4th level of 2856 which was recently matched on February 28, 2020. If we are still in a Low Tide and we break through, then we possibly sail all the way down to around 2500.
Same as last week: Preparing some boats to depart around the 2500 Tide Level.Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing positions to the 3100 Tide Level.No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Mid Tide (S&P at 2902)Rip Tide (VIX around 41.94)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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Course And Heading 03/02/20

Last week was quite a week in the markets. The Record King High Tide crested at 3394 on February 19th rising a whopping 19% since the Low Tide observed on October 4th.

Some of the fleet set sail last week on the Low Tide confirmation around 3136 and took a beating as the powerful storm pulled the Tide all the way back to the October 4th level of 2856.

This week remains a guessing game as to which scenario unfolds. If Friday marked a Low Tide of 2856 then maybe we can sail up to around 3100. If not, we must be prepared to weather a storm that could do even further damage to our boats.
Preparing boats to depart around the 2500 Tide Level.Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing positions to the 3100 Tide Level.No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas! Never panic.

Trading Tide Levels:
Low Tide (S&P at 2954)Rip Tide (VIX around 40 knots)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the infor…