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Showing posts from March, 2020

High Tide #4 Head Fake

Just when it looked like  High Tide #4  was receding to begin  Low Tide #5 , the  Tide  began to rise again and  High Tide #4  lived on, now up 21% from  Low Tide #4 . Is it common for a  High Tide  to rise over 19% during a  hurricane ? Well, both the  Dot-Com Bubble  and the  Great Recession  each had 3  High Tides  rise over 19%. Same Course And Heading as yesterday: Preparing some  boats  to depart around the 2000 - 2200  Tide Level . Keep cruising (hold) existing positions (even though the  hurricane  is likely not over, the market could rebound sharply and calling these boats in now would miss the bounce.) No  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : High Tide  ( S&P  at 2630) Rip Tide  ( VIX  around 51) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all

Course And Heading 03/30/20

It is difficult to discuss  Hurricane Corona  as a financial crises when people are dying as a result of the horrible Coronavirus disease COVID-19. My heart goes out to all who have become sick or have died and everyone has been impacted by this terrible disease. We need to fight hard by social distancing to minimize the number of deaths. It is truly a health crises and the worst is yet to come. This week, we either start day 40 of  Hurricane Corona  with: We are still rising in  High Tide #4 , and/or The  hurricane  is over with  Low Tide #4  @ 2295.56, or Low Tide #5  (possibly established Friday @ 2520) Given the fact that both previous  hurricanes  lasted 930 and 512 days before they exhausted, it is likely doubtful that  Hurricane Corona  is over. Therefore, here is the strategy: Preparing some  boats  to depart around the 2000 - 2200  Tide Level . Keep cruising (hold) existing positions (even though the  hurricane  is likely not over, the market could rebound sharply

Course And Heading 03/23/20

A new  Low Tide ,  Hurricane Corona   Low Tide #4  has been established at 2295.56 down 7%. The averge  Low Tide  during a  hurricane  recedes between 16% and 18% so  Low Tide #4  will possibly recede further. We've now seen 7  Tides  in the first 30 days of   Hurricane Corona . It took both previous hurricanes  272 and 278 days to experience 7  Tides . It seems like forever ago but it was only 1 week ago when we set Course And Heading 03/16/22  at 2708, 400 points higher than we are today. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona A few dinghies  were splashed last week and all but one were called back to port after very short voyages. The rest of the  fleet  that has been moored at the dock, stayed at the dock and the sailing  fleet  continues to ride out the storms . Preparing some  boats  to depart around the 2050 Tide Level . Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to  port  (sell) existing positions on strength. No  short positions  planned. Fair winds and following

Is That A Dinghy?

When I refer to a " boat ", I am refering to a stock symbol position. For example, let's say I am favorable to the stock $KHC. I might sail (buy) "$KHC I" at a certain price and then sail (buy) "$KCH II" at another price and "$KHC III" at yet another price. In this case, I have 3  boats  sailing, all using the symbol $KHC. The  boats  might be all the same size or different sizes. In addition to the symbol selection , there is also a decision to make about the size of the  boat . The type of " boat " has very little to do with the performance of the boat, rather it is the portion it takes up of the total dollars available in my  fleet . There are dinghys, inflatable boats, jon boats, deckboats, flats boats, powerboats, house boats,  yachts, blue water boats, cargo ships, aircraft carriers and huge passenger ships (I call these huge boats " Titanics ") and many more. For the purposes of 10KTrades , the larger the single inv

Course And Heading 03/16/20

A  High Tide  has been established at 2708.47 by a whipsaw 10% move in 1 day. A few boats, dinghies (small investments), were sailed last week and were called back in with the  High Tide  rushing in. The rest of the  fleet  that has been moored at the dock, stayed at the dock last week and the sailing  fleet  got some calm water to end the week. Hurricane Corona Watch: First Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↓ 14% over 21 days Great Recession  ↓ 11% over 46 days Corona : ↓ 16% over 9 days First High Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 11% over 12 days Great Recession  ↑ 8% over 15 days Corona : ↑ 10% over 4 days Second Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↓ 8% over 23 days Great Recession  ↓ 17% over 43 days Corona : ↓ 21% over 9 days Second High Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 12% over 100 days Great Recession  ↑ 10% over 9 days Corona : ↑ 10% over 1 day (so far) Aside from the speed of the first 2  Corona   tid

Hurricane Corona

As you know, 10KTrades uses sailing as a metaphor for investing using terms like boats, fleet, tides, storms and more. A " Storm " is particularly bad weather often causing a  Low Tide  and possibly even a  Rip Tide .  Storms  happen occasionally as a result of bad weather such as bad economic or political news. A Hurricane is a violent  storm  of large magnitude and often has several " storm s within the  storm ". The entire world is now hearing about Hurricane Corona. Hurricane Corona is a financial  storm  with a devastating beginning never seen before. To put it into perspective, let's start to compare Hurricane Corona (20-?) to our last two hurricanes: Hurricane Great Recession  (07-09) and Hurricane Dot-Com Bubble  (00-02). Hurricane  Dot-Com Bubble  (00-02) began March 24, 2000 at 1552.87 and lasted 930 days until October 10, 2002 dropping 51% to 768.63. Hurricane  Great Recession  (07-09) began October 11, 2007 at 1576.09 and lasted 512 days unt

Course And Heading 03/09/20

Hello Hurricane Corona. Although it has only been 19 days, it seems forever ago since the  Record King High Tide  crested at 3394 on February 19th. The  fleet  that is moored at the dock, stayed at the dock last week and the sailing  fleet  continued to get battered by a crazy roller coaster ride named Hurricane Corona. This week's weather remains a guessing game. It looks likely the  Tide  will pull all the way back to the October 4th level of 2856 which was recently matched on February 28, 2020. If we are still in a  Low Tide  and we break through, then we possibly sail all the way down to around 2500. Same as last week: Preparing some  boats  to depart around the 2500  Tide Level . Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to  port  (sell) existing positions to the 3100  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Mid Tide  ( S&P  at 2902) Rip Tide  ( VIX  around 41.94) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Lear

Course And Heading 03/02/20

Last week was quite a week in the markets. The  Record King High Tide  crested at 3394 on February 19th rising a whopping 19% since the  Low Tide  observed on October 4th. Some of the  fleet  set sail last week on the  Low Tide  confirmation around 3136 and took a beating as the powerful storm pulled the  Tide  all the way back to the October 4th level of 2856. This week remains a guessing game as to which scenario unfolds. If Friday marked a  Low Tide  of 2856 then maybe we can sail up to around 3100. If not, we must be prepared to weather a storm that could do even further damage to our  boats . Preparing  boats  to depart around the 2500 Tide Level . Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to  port  (sell) existing positions to the 3100  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Never panic. Trading Tide Levels : Low Tide  ( S&P  at 2954) Rip Tide  ( VIX  around 40 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT F