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Showing posts from April, 2020

Course And Heading 04/27/20

Hello everyone, once again I hope you and your family are safe, healthy and are overcoming the challenges of distancing. We start this week with the  S&P  at 2837, lower than it was in January of 2018. That marks over two years of no gains but after seeing the devastation caused by  Hurricane Corona , it is a positive sign we are not even lower than we are at this time. The  VIX  remains elevated but it felt like the seas (the market) calmed a little last week. That does not mean  Hurricane Corona  is over by almost any measurement as the previous hurricanes had several stretches of "calm" trading within them. Assuming  Hurricane Corona  is over then: If the  S&P  breaks 2900 we will call this a  High Tide If the  S&P  breaks 2727 we were still in a  Low Tide If  Hurricane Corona  is not over then: We are still in  High Tide  #5 and we are preparing for  Low Tide  #6 which could take us to the 2400 level and could take a few months to complete based

Course And Heading 04/20/20

It is hard to believe that this week marks one month since Hurricane Corona  possibly ended on March 23, 2020 at 33 days and  ↓  35%. It seems like yesterday when the markets had huge drops and quick bounces on a daily basis. That said, the  VIX  remains a  Rip Tide  and, based on the duration of the other two most recent  hurricanes , it is unlikely  Hurricane Corona  is over and we could be starting this week on Day 61, down 15% overall around  High Tide #5 . Therefore, here is the strategy: Continue sailing  boats  already at sea, hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  (up to 50% of the fleet) to depart around the 2500  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  (up to the entire fleet) to depart around the 2200  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 2875) Rip Tide  

Course And Heading 04/13/20

Hopeful that everyone is having a safe and healthy weekend during these difficult times. It is possible that  Hurricane Corona  was over on March 23, 2020 at 33 days and  ↓  35%. However, based on the duration of the other two  hurricanes , it is unlikely  Hurricane Corona  is over. Therefore, here is the strategy: Continue sailing  boats  already at sea, hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  (up to 50% of the fleet) to depart around the 2500  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  (up to the entire fleet) to depart around the 2200  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 2790) Rip Tide  ( VIX  around 41) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not enc

Course And Heading 04/06/20

Hurricanes  are difficult to forecast with wild storms and raging tides . to This week, we start day 47 of  Hurricane Corona  in  Low Tide #5  or we started  High Tide #5  on Friday or the  hurricane  was over on March 23rd with  Low Tide #4  @ 2295.56 ( ↓ 35% overall lasting 33 days.) Given the fact that both previous  hurricanes  lasted 930 days ↓ 51% and 512 days ↓ 58% before they exhausted, it is doubtful  Hurricane Corona  was over at 33 days and ↓ 35%. However, based on the number of  tides  we've already seen,  Hurricane Corona  is likely not going to last near as long as the other two  hurricanes . Therefore, here is the strategy: Calling some  boats  back to port around the 2700 -2900  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  to depart around the 2000 - 2250  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Mid Tide  ( S&P  at 2600) Rip

March 2020 Returns

As of the end of March, 2020: YTD Return: -14% 1 Year Return 2% 3 Year Return 4% average annual return 5 Year Return 4% average annual return 10 Year Return 12% average annual return Lifetime Return -26% (-1.2% average annual return - see $WCOM Trade #4 ) Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Low Tide  ( S&P  at 2489) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  super high around 47 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any invest

Hurricane Low Tide #6

Today we established  Low Tides #5  @ 2486.22. It is possible  Hurricane Corona  ended on  Low Tides #4 , March 23rd @ 2191.86. If  Hurricane Corona  is not yet over, unfortunately, we might not have seen the worst yet. Enter  Low Tide #6 . Both previous  hurricanes  had huge  receding tides  that coincidentally happened on  Low Tide #6 : Hurricane  Dot-Com Bubble   Low Tide #6 , started on day 424 and produced a 28% drop over 122 days. Hurricane  Great Recession   Low Tide #6 , started on day 344 and produced a 33% drop over 21 days. To try to predict what a similar  Low Tide #6  would do during Hurricane Corona , let's compare the other   Low Tides #6  to their respective  Low Tides #4  (the most recent  Low Tide  during  Hurricane Corona ). Because  High Tides  #4 and #5 fall between  Low Tides #4  and  Low Tides #6 , the drop between  Low Tide #6  and  Low Tide #4  was not quite as bad as the the drop between  Low Tide #6  and  High Tide #5 : Hurricane  Dot-Com Bubbl

Hurricane Waves

Looking at the previous  hurricanes , tide ranges  seem to come in waves. A wave is defined as a series of  tides  rising and falling within a similar range allowing you to trade within a wave. However, you have to sail with caution as the dnd of wave which tends to be a sharp  Rip Tide  receding into the next wave (trading range). The  Dot-Com Bubble  had  18 tides  over 3 waves and the  Great Recession  had  26 tides  over 3 waves. Wave 3 - Trading Range Around 27% - 46% Below The Start Of The Hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble :  6 tides  lasted 335 days from 09/21/01 @945 ↓ 39% to 08/22/02 @965 ↓ 39% Great Recession :  14 tides  lasted 122 days from 10/10/08 @844 ↓ 46% to 02/09/09 @875 ↓ 44% Corona : ? Wave 2 - Trading Range Around 15% - 20% Below The Start Of The Hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble :  6 tides  lasted 216 days from 10/18/00 @1306 ↓ 16% to 05/21/01 @1316 ↓ 15% Great Recession :  8 tides  lasted 240 days from 01/23/08 @1270 ↓ 19% to 09/19/08 @1264 ↓ 20% Corona : 1