Posts

Showing posts from April, 2020

Course And Heading 04/27/20

Hello everyone, once again I hope you and your family are safe, healthy and are overcoming the challenges of distancing.

We start this week with the S&P at 2837, lower than it was in January of 2018. That marks over two years of no gains but after seeing the devastation caused by Hurricane Corona, it is a positive sign we are not even lower than we are at this time.

The VIX remains elevated but it felt like the seas (the market) calmed a little last week. That does not mean Hurricane Corona is over by almost any measurement as the previous hurricanes had several stretches of "calm" trading within them.

Assuming Hurricane Corona is over then:
If the S&P breaks 2900 we will call this a High TideIf the S&P breaks 2727 we were still in a Low Tide If Hurricane Corona is not over then:
We are still in High Tide #5 and we are preparing for Low Tide #6 which could take us to the 2400 level and could take a few months to complete based on Tide research. Therefore, here is t…

Course And Heading 04/20/20

It is hard to believe that this week marks one month since Hurricane Corona possibly ended on March 23, 2020 at 33 days and ↓ 35%. It seems like yesterday when the markets had huge drops and quick bounces on a daily basis.

That said, the VIX remains a Rip Tide and, based on the duration of the other two most recent hurricanes, it is unlikely Hurricane Corona is over and we could be starting this week on Day 61, down 15% overall around High Tide #5.

Therefore, here is the strategy:
Continue sailing boats already at sea, hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100 Tide Level.Preparing some boats (up to 50% of the fleet) to depart around the 2500 Tide Level.Preparing some boats (up to the entire fleet) to depart around the 2200 Tide Level.No short positions planned.Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P at 2875)Rip Tide (VIX around 38)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More Abo…

Course And Heading 04/13/20

Hopeful that everyone is having a safe and healthy weekend during these difficult times. It is possible that Hurricane Corona was over on March 23, 2020 at 33 days and ↓ 35%. However, based on the duration of the other two hurricanes, it is unlikely Hurricane Corona is over.

Therefore, here is the strategy:
Continue sailing boats already at sea, hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100 Tide Level.Preparing some boats (up to 50% of the fleet) to depart around the 2500 Tide Level.Preparing some boats (up to the entire fleet) to depart around the 2200 Tide Level.No short positions planned.Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P at 2790)Rip Tide (VIX around 41)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
Facebook
Twitter

This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an ind…

Course And Heading 04/06/20

Hurricanes are difficult to forecast with wild storms and raging tides. to This week, we start day 47 of Hurricane Corona in Low Tide #5 or we started High Tide #5 on Friday or the hurricane was over on March 23rd with Low Tide #4 @ 2295.56 (↓ 35% overall lasting 33 days.)

Given the fact that both previous hurricanes lasted 930 days ↓ 51% and 512 days ↓ 58% before they exhausted, it is doubtful Hurricane Corona was over at 33 days and ↓ 35%. However, based on the number of tides we've already seen, Hurricane Corona is likely not going to last near as long as the other two hurricanes.

Therefore, here is the strategy:
Calling some boats back to port around the 2700 -2900 Tide Level.Preparing some boats to depart around the 2000 - 2250 Tide Level.No short positions planned.Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Mid Tide (S&P at 2600)Rip Tide (VIX around 45)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About…

March 2020 Returns

As of the end of March, 2020:
YTD Return: -14%1 Year Return 2%3 Year Return 4% average annual return5 Year Return 4% average annual return10 Year Return 12% average annual returnLifetime Return -26% (-1.2% average annual return - see $WCOM Trade #4) Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona
Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Low Tide (S&P at 2489)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX super high around 47 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
Twitter

This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are reco…

Hurricane Low Tide #6

Today we established Low Tides #5 @ 2486.22. It is possible Hurricane Corona ended on Low Tides #4, March 23rd @ 2191.86. If Hurricane Corona is not yet over, unfortunately, we might not have seen the worst yet.

Enter Low Tide #6. Both previous hurricanes had huge receding tides that coincidentally happened on Low Tide #6:
Hurricane Dot-Com BubbleLow Tide #6, started on day 424 and produced a 28% drop over 122 days.Hurricane Great RecessionLow Tide #6, started on day 344 and produced a 33% drop over 21 days. To try to predict what a similar Low Tide #6 would do during Hurricane Corona, let's compare the other  Low Tides #6 to their respective Low Tides #4 (the most recent Low Tide during Hurricane Corona). Because High Tides #4 and #5 fall between Low Tides #4 and Low Tides #6, the drop between Low Tide #6 and Low Tide #4 was not quite as bad as the the drop between Low Tide #6 and High Tide #5: Hurricane Dot-Com BubbleLow Tide #6 dropped 25% below Low Tides #4.Hurricane Great Reces…

Hurricane Waves

Looking at the previous hurricanes, tide ranges seem to come in waves. A wave is defined as a series of tides rising and falling within a similar range allowing you to trade within a wave. However, you have to sail with caution as the dnd of wave which tends to be a sharp Rip Tide receding into the next wave (trading range).

The Dot-Com Bubble had 18 tides over 3 waves and the Great Recession had 26 tides over 3 waves.

Wave 3 - Trading Range Around 27% - 46% Below The Start Of The Hurricane:
Dot-Com Bubble6 tides lasted 335 days from 09/21/01 @945 ↓ 39% to 08/22/02 @965 ↓ 39%Great Recession14 tides lasted 122 days from 10/10/08 @844 ↓ 46% to 02/09/09 @875 ↓ 44%Corona: ?Wave 2 - Trading Range Around 15% - 20% Below The Start Of The Hurricane:
Dot-Com Bubble6 tides lasted 216 days from 10/18/00 @1306 ↓ 16% to 05/21/01 @1316 ↓ 15%Great Recession8 tides lasted 240 days from 01/23/08 @1270 ↓ 19% to 09/19/08 @1264 ↓ 20%Corona: 10 tides lasted 41 days from 02/28/20 @ 2856 ↓ 16% to 04/09…