Posts

Showing posts from May, 2020

Is The Stock Market Hurricane Over?

It sure feels like the seas have calmed and our first hurricane in over 10 years is over. However, before we "float all boats" going all in on this ocean, let's take a look at a these two key points from previous hurricanes: 1. Does being up 38% from the bottom, 2192 on March 23, 2020, mean that the hurricane is over? As stated earlier, both previous hurricanes had multiple  High Tide moves  greater than 20%. The  Tide  we are either in or just ended is up 23%. This is right in line with 5  tides  in the previous hurricanes that were up 22%, 23%, 24% (twice) and 25%. 2. Does being only down 10% since 3394, the start of the hurricane on February 28, 2020, mean that the hurricane is over? At the current 3036 level, the  S&P  is down 10% since the start of the hurricane (98 days before today). The  Great Recession  was down only 9% at the 221 day mark and the  Dot-Com Bubble  was also down 11% on day 313. Deciding when to sail (buy) is a challenge but hopefully history h

Hurricane Corona Tide Watch

Hurricane Corona   Tide  comparisons so far (as of May 27, 2020): Fifth High Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 22% over 60 days (day 424, ↓ 15% overall) Great Recession  ↑ 12% over 1 day (day 344, ↓ 20% overall) Corona : ↑ 24% over 55 days (day 97, ↓  10% overall) ACTIVE NOW? Fifth Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble   ↓ 22% over 41 days (day 364, ↓ 30% overall) Great Recession   ↓ 14% over 38 days (day 343, ↓ 28% overall) Corona : ↓ 7% over 1 days (day 42, ↓ 27% overall) Fourth High Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 10% over 41 days (day 313, ↓ 11% overall) Great Recession  ↑ 9% over 27 days (day 305, ↓ 17% overall) Corona : ↑ 21% over 8 days (day 41, ↓ 22% overall) Fourth Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble   ↓ 13% over 45 days (day 272,  ↓  19% overall) Great Recession   ↓ 17% over 57 days (day 278,  ↓  24% overall) Corona : ↓ 11% over 4 days (day 33,  ↓  35% overall) WAS THIS THE END? Third High Tide  o

Stock Market Course And Heading 05/25/20

Today we honor the heroes who died protecting our freedom. Each week feels like we are moving further away from  Hurricane Corona  and we are now up 22% since the April 1  Low Tide  of 2447. However, both previous hurricanes had multiple  High Tide moves  greater than 20% so we might not be out of the  hurricane  yet. If  Hurricane Corona  is over then: we could be rising again in a possible  High Tide  and we could rise to around the 3000  level . A possible 150 point range for the week is 2875 - 3030. If  Hurricane Corona  is not over then: we are still either in  High Tide  #5 and we could rise to around the 3000  level  or we are about to start  Low Tide  #6 which could take us all the way down to the 2400 level over the next few months based on  Tide  research. Therefore, here is the Captain's Log entry: No  new positions  planned. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea (about 43% of the  fleet  is sailing), hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100  Tide Level

Stock Market Course And Heading 05/18/20

Last week had some tough to read tide  movement as we were on the brink of reaching a High Tide  and then a squall developed dropping the  S&P  179 points to 2767. The sea  has been commonly moving about 150 points between the high and the low each calendar week (a reflection of the high  VIX .) The 179 point squall last week, however, was a very abrupt and concentrated move. During the squall, we launched a few small boats . If  Hurricane Corona  is over then: we could be rising again in a possible  High Tide  and it could be safe (although the winds remain dangerous ) to float some  boats  for short trips as we could rise to around the 3000  level . A possible 150 point range for the week is 2800 - 2950.  If  Hurricane Corona  is not over then: we are still either in  High Tide  #5 or  Low Tide  #6 which could take us all the way down to the 2400 level over the next few months based on  Tide  research. Therefore, here is the Captain's Log entry: Continue sailing  boats  alrea

Tricky Tides

We sail according to the  tides . We prefer to launch during stormy weather ( falling tides ) knowing we might get battered around a little at first but hopeful the storm is almost over so we can enjoy the rest of our voyage. Today is a classic example of the importance of  discipline and patience  and sticking to the plan . On Monday, May 4, 2020, if we are not still in  Hurricane Corona , we established a  Low Tide  at 2797.85. Over the last 11 days we've been rising toward the 3000 level, the weather has been good and the  Tide  rose to 2945.82, not quite a  High Tide , but it looked like a sure thing. Then, boom, a storm suddenly erupted and pulled the seas all the way down to the 2767 level. We had been in a  Low Tide  the entire time! A couple of days ago, we could have launched some boats around 2900, thinking we were in a fairly young, rising  High Tide , hoping to take short cruises up to around 2950 - 3000. But, as part of the strategy to only launch during storms or in

Boats And Fleet Management

Everyone has their own personality and preferences. Some like to feel the exhilarating g-force from the sharp acceleration of a jet ski and others like to slowly cruise around like on a pontoon, relaxing, perhaps even barbecuing or fishing along the way. My personality outside of trading (for the most part), has been one of a thrill seeker. I love the reward of taking on risk. Early in my sailing (trading) career, I took the same approach, seeking out high-flying boats and ignoring the diversity of having a fleet . I put everything into one  boat  that sunk. As you can guess, this was an expensive approach and it was absolutely no fun either! Today, I have about 73  boats , in several Watch Lists , in my  fleet .  Click here to read about boat selection from July 22, 2019  (Interestingly we were in a  High Tide  at the time of that post with the S&P  sitting near an all-time high (at the time) of 2976. One of the important questions you should ask yourself is: how much time can I

Course And Heading 05/11/20

Happy Mother's Day to all the wonderful women that made us who we are! Tides  are governed by many factors and emotions are certainly one of them.  Tides  flow toward optimism (sometimes unsustainable) and pessimism (sometimes unjustified). The last two weeks the  S&P  started simlarly at 2837 and 2830 and today the seas are at around 2930, a more optimistic  tide  by 100 points or 3.5% and only 25 points below the last  High Tide  recognized about 12 days ago on April 29. As you know, the higher the  tide , the less likely I am to sail as returns become more difficult to achieve. A 3.5% return in a week is a beautiful voyage and I did bring back some  boats  on Friday (one boat, $AUY 12 , was at sea for nearly 4 years), however, that does not mean I will call the  entire fleet  back to the harbor, it just means I have less exposure ( fewer boats sailing ) preparing for the inevitable  Low Tide  that is coming. If  Hurricane Corona  is over then: we are rising in a possible  H

Dead Calm

While sailing, there are days and periods of time during the day that are good timess to do NOTHING! This morning, with the exception of the Nasdaq , the seas are generally calm, the  Tide  action is neutral to slightly rising and it might be one of those days to just be patient and enjoy the day. However, the  VIX  remains elevated, the probability of a  storm  is high, and the weather  can change quickly so always be at the ready. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Rising Tide  ( S&P  at 2882) Rip Tide  ( VIX  around 32) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks incl

April 2020 Returns

As of the end of April, 2020: YTD Return: -6% 1 Year Return 16% 3 Year Return 6% average annual return 5 Year Return 10% average annual return 10 Year Return 12% average annual return Lifetime Return -18% (-1% average annual return - see $WCOM Trade #4 ) Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 2954) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 29 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisi

Course And Heading 05/04/20

Last week  started with the  S&P  at 2837 and beautiful weather that gave way to storms on Thursday and Friday, pulling the  S&P  down to 2830. If  Hurricane Corona  is over then we established a new  Low Tide  and it is safe to float some  boats . If  Hurricane Corona  is not over then: We are either in  High Tide  #5 or  Low Tide  #6 which could take us all the way down to the 2400 level over the next few months based on  Tide  research. Therefore, here is the strategy: Continue sailing  boats  already at sea (about 49% of the fleet ), hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  (up to 60% of the  fleet ) to depart around the 2500  Tide Level . Also planing a few short trips around 2725. Preparing some  boats  (up to the entire  fleet ) to depart around the 2200  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at t