Tricky Tides

We sail according to the tides. We prefer to launch during stormy weather (falling tides) knowing we might get battered around a little at first but hopeful the storm is almost over so we can enjoy the rest of our voyage.

Today is a classic example of the importance of discipline and patience and sticking to the plan.
  1. On Monday, May 4, 2020, if we are not still in Hurricane Corona, we established a Low Tide at 2797.85.
  2. Over the last 11 days we've been rising toward the 3000 level, the weather has been good and the Tide rose to 2945.82, not quite a High Tide, but it looked like a sure thing.
  3. Then, boom, a storm suddenly erupted and pulled the seas all the way down to the 2767 level.
We had been in a Low Tide the entire time!

A couple of days ago, we could have launched some boats around 2900, thinking we were in a fairly young, rising High Tide, hoping to take short cruises up to around 2950 - 3000. But, as part of the strategy to only launch during storms or in receding tides, we held off launching and today, Thursday, turned out to be a MUCH BETTER day to launch as the seas have dropped a whopping 6% below Tuesday's high.

Remember, risk rises as the tides rise but risk is not reduced when the tides fall (you can still lose your entire investment). However, in the example above, launching during the falling tide was 6% better than launching 2 days earlier during a Low Tide that was rising.

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other components that make up your own financial situation.


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