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Showing posts from June, 2020

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/29/20

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Let's check the accuracy of last week's Log:
Projected Range: 3005 - 3191 Actual Range: 3005 - 3155
This week we start at 3009 and expect a range between 2920 - 3078 during this short week (the seas are closed Friday July 3).
Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch boats at or below the 3000 level.Continue sailing boats already at sea to the 3200 - 3300 level.There are no short sailings planned. Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Low Tide (S&P around 3009)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 35 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated or endorsed including a…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Course And Heading 06/22/20

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After sailing through a violent storm that dropped the seas by ↓ 249 points or ↓ 7% the week before, last week proved to be fairly benign.
We start this week at 3098 expecting the seas to find a range between 3005 and 3191 so we will be in a holding pattern until we close in on one of the ends of the range.
Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch boats at or below the 3000 level.Continue sailing boats already at sea to the 3200 - 3300 level.There are no short sailings planned. Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Mid Tide (S&P around 3098)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 35 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your …
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Start Each Sail With The Return To The Dock In Mind

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There are five (5) main considerations to sail a boat: The boat you choose to set sail with.The price you pay for the boat.The date you set sail/depart (buy).The date you return (sell) the boat.The price you sell the boat for. There have been many times I have left the dock and then, while sailing, I'll do math to determine when to return to the dock only to realize I wish I would have stayed at the dock!
When you buy a boat, buy it with the end in mind.
Take a look at this example: Let's say a boat is selling for $40 per share and your research shows it might be a good time to buy.Let's say you want to make 10% so you would like to return that boat to the dock at $44.Let's say you don't want to lose more than 10% so you will need to return that boat to the dock if it hits $36.You were hoping to sail less than a month, but, after you set sail, you start looking at your charts and you see it's been a while since this boat sold for $44. Furthermore, based on the sea c…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Course And Heading 06/15/20

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Last Monday, after sailing in beautiful weather for 25 days, ↑ 466 points or ↑ 17%, the King High Tide finally crested at 3233. I had been preparing for the inevitable storm, calling boats back to the dock during the final sunny days of the tide, with as much as 72% of the fleet moored at the dock.
Then came a violent storm that dropped the seas by ↓ 249 points or ↓ 7%. Normally, ↓ 7% would be a strong signal to set sail, but because of hurricane corona, high winds and ↑ 17% over 25 days, the violent destruction remains firmly in my mind.
Expecting the seas this week in a range between 2950 and 3133 and over the next 30 days the seas could drop to 2750.
Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch boats below the 3000 level.Continue sailing boats already at sea.There are no short sailings planned.Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Low Tide (S&P around 3041)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 36 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About …
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Tide Update

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The recent King High Tide finally crested at 3233 on June 8, rising ↑ 17% over 25 days and, at the time it crested, the seas had risen ↑ 48% since March 23.
There has now been 8 King High Tides since January 1, 2016 and those tides rose between ↑ 15% and ↑ 24%.
The Low Tides that followed each King High Tide averaged ↓ 5% and lasted 13 days on average.  Today is day 3 of this Low Tide and we are ↓ 7%.
Updated Captain's Boat Log: Possibly, and very cautiously, float some boats below the 3100 level. VIX is above 30 knots.Continue sailing boats already at sea (about 28% of the fleet), and will continue calling back more boats to port around the 3200 Tide Level.There are no short positions planned.Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P around 3100)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 30 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not …
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Course And Heading 06/08/20

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The current King High Tide has risen to 3211. This tide has risen ↑ 16% over 22 days and the seas have risen ↑ 47% since March 23, 2020.
There have been 7 King High Tides since January 1, 2016 and those tides rose between ↑ 15% and ↑ 24%. There is more room for this tide to rise and ↑ 24% would put the S&P at a record high of 3431.
With the recent beautiful sailing conditions (despite the high winds), we remain guarded against the inevitable storm. Boats were called back to port last week and now 28% of the fleet remains at sea.
Captain's Boat Log: No new cruises planned at the current tide level.Continue sailing boats already at sea.There are no short sailings planned.Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P at 3194)Rip Tide (high winds, VIX around 24 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or prob…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Tide Update

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The current King High Tide inched higher today to 3185. This tide has risen ↑ 15% over 22 days and the seas have risen ↑ 45% over the last 74 days.
This is the 27th High Tide since January 1, 2016. The average tide over that period rose 11% and lasted 42 days.There have been 7 King High Tides over that period and they rose between ↑ 15% and ↑ 24%. No new entries in this week's Captain's Boat Log: No new cruises planned.Continue sailing boats already at sea (about 38% of the fleet), and will call back some boats to port around the 3100 to 3200 Tide Level.There are no short positions planned.Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P at 3072)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 28 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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AUY Trade #91

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$AUY Trade #91

I remember seeing Jim Cramer, on the television show Mad Money, yelling "YAMANA!!" at the TV during the "lightning round". That's when I began trading YAMANA Gold $AUY.

$AUY, trade #91, isn't over yet, I have 10 boats sailing, but I've waited and waited for this stock to return to it's "glory hole" (those of you who have seen the show "Gold Rush" will understand). I've been sailing these 10 $AUY boats since September 2014 (yep, those boats should have been called back in a long time ago but I wasn't using a STOP-LOSS at the time).
I thought sailing a gold mining boat would be a hedge if there was an overall pullback in the stock market. I guess I was right as $AUY is now over $5 per share after hitting a low of $1.78 last summer. That is a heck of a return, but... timing is everything and I started sailing it way to early!

Here are three takeaways from $AUY Trade #91: First, someday I'll devote a post to d…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Course And Heading 06/01/20

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Last Thursday could have marked the peak of a High Tide at 3068.67. This tide has risen 11% and lasted 14 days and is the 23rd High Tide since January 1, 2018. The average tide over that period rose 10% and the King High Tides rose between ↑ 17% and ↑ 24% so there is more room for this tide to rise but, at ↑ 11%, we should also be preparing for storms.
Therefore, here is the Captain's Boat Log entry:No new cruises planned.Continue sailing boats already at sea (about 38% of the fleet), and will call back some boats to port around the 3100 to 3200 Tide Level.There are no short positions planned.Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P at 3044)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 28 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing post…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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