Posts

Showing posts with the label S&P

Low Tide Alert

A  Low Tide  has been confirmed at 4240 (down 3% so far). If 4240 is the end of this  Low Tide , we can expect the next  High Tide  to rise to 4494 sometime in August or September. 4494 seems high so 4240 might not be the bottom if this  Low Tide . The May 12, 2021  Low Tide  fell 4% to 4057 The March 25, 2021  Low Tide  fell 3% to 3854 The March 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 6% to 3723 The January 29, 2021  Low Tide  fell 5% to 3694 The January 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 3% to 3663 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Falling  ( S&P  @ 4262) Tide Type: Low Tide  (winds picked up with  VIX  around 22.5 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. In

Exit Strategy When You Buy A Stock

When you buy a boat,  buy it with the sale of it in mind . Take a look at this example: Let's say a boat is selling for $40 per share during a  Low Tide  phase and your research shows it might be a good time to buy. Before you buy, you set a goal that you'd like to make a 10% return so you will return that boat to the dock at $44. How likely is it that the boat you are sailing can reach $44? Has it reached $44 before? How many times has it reached $44? In this stock trading example, the $44 is way more important than the $40 because the stock HAS to get to $44 to make this trade work. How long are you willing to wait to hit $44? You were hoping to sail this boat less than a month, but, after you set sail, you start looking at your charts and you see it's been a while since this boat sold for $44. Furthermore, based on deteriorating  sea conditions , you think it might take a while to get back to $44 and even further research shows the boat now has a better chance of hitting

Trade Or Hold?

Trading individual stocks is time-intensive, risky and can be an emotional rollercoaster. So why trade? The answer to this question is different for everyone but here are some considerations: Do you have a high-level understanding of stocks and the stock market? Can you afford to lose every dollar you are investing? Do you like to gamble and take risks with your money? Do you enjoy researching stocks and learning about companies? Do you have enough time to research? Are you trying to trade as a hobby or a full-time job? Notice how none of those considerations are "do you want to get rich?". Very few traders outperform the overall market and you have a FAR better chance to make money if you invest your hard-earned money in the overall market than you do if you try to trade individual stocks. I say "buy  $VOO  or something similar during  Low Tides .  $VOO  tracks the performance of the S&P 500 index so it requires far less research, time, and analysis than individual

How To Choose The Right Boat

Choosing a  boat  (stock) to invest in can be (and probably should be) a difficult decision. Invest in a money pit and you will watch your hard-earned money vanish. Invest in a  boat  that requires very little maintenance and increases in value and you will have a great time investing. There are many factors to consider when choosing a boat such as their industry, how long they've been in business, the popularity of their products or services, total debt, price-to-earnings, growth rate, market cap and so much more. To make it simple, I will suggest one basic rule to start with: invest the majority of your money in  boats  that you know or, even better yet,  boats  with products or services that you personally use in your own life. Household names attract a lot of attention and are not without risk but if you believe in their products or services, perhaps others will agree with you and their stock will go up over time. And to make it even more simple. Instead of sailing an individua

Tide Update

A  Low Tide  was confirmed on May 12 at 4057 (down 4%). If we are in a  High Tide  then it will test 4300 sometime in June (4238 is the record  High Tide ) If we are still in a  Low Tide  then it will test 4057 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 4192) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds steady with  VIX  around 19 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certifi

2021 Tide Forecasts

 There have been 5  Low Tides  so far in 2021 (about 1 per month). Here are the  Low Tides  by year: 2021: 5 so far through May 12 2020: 14 2019: 5 2018: 8 2017: 1 2016: 4 As you can see,  Low Tides  seem to form about once every two months with the exception of  2017 when there was only one (on March 27th). In 2017, you would have waited all year for the next  Low Tide  that never came. Last year was pretty volatile with 14  Low Tides  giving you plenty of opportunities to participate (6 of the  Low Tides  last year were in March and April 2020 alone). Here is a  Low Tide  forecast for the rest of this year based on average  High  and  Low Tides : December 15 4409  Projected October 21 4299  Projected August 28 4157  Projected July 5 4128 Projected May 12 4057 March 25 3854 March 4 3723 January 29 3694 January 4 3663 Note: because of the high S&P price to earnings, rising inflation possibly leading to rising interest rates, and the probability of higher taxes, today's  Tide Le

High Tide Update

 The current or most recent  High Tide  is 35 days old and has risen 9% to 4219. We are due for a  Low Tide  and a  Low Tide  will be established below 4082. The current  High Tide  is up 9% at 4219 The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level High  ( S&P  @ 4190) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 17 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your ent

It So Difficult To Wait At The Dock

I am writing this right now as a diversion! I want to buy something so bad today but a  Low Tide  has not formed so I should sit back and wait for it. A  High Tide  recently rose to +9% and research showed a  Low Tide  forming in the near future was likely. Sure enough, the winds ( VIX ) have started increasing and the tide has started falling but I find myself chomping at the bit to buy something even though a  Low Tide  has not been verified. Investing with discipline and patience  is very difficult, in part, because the weather is so hard to predict. Buy too soon and you drop with the tide, but if you stay on the dock during a  High Tide , you miss out on gains. Trust the research. Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Falling  ( S&P  @ 4127) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds increasing  VIX  around 19 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational pur

Low Tides By Year

Here are the  Low Tide  drops by year: 2021: -3%, -5%, -6%, -3%, ?? 2020: -4%, -16%, -21%, -16%, -11%, -7%, -3%, -5%, -6%, -8%, -5%, -11%, -9%, -4% 2019: -3%, -3%, -8%. -7%, -5% 2018: -12%, -5%, -9% -5%, -4%, -11%, -7%, -16% 2017: -3% 2016: -11%, -7%, -4%, -5% Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Rising  ( S&P  @ 4150) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds light  VIX  below 17 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions a

Cheap Stocks To Buy

Image
Trading stocks has been a popular topic lately with stories like Gamestop $GME dominating the headlines. Take a look at this chart by Google Trends showing the number of searches for "cheap stocks" since 2004: Cheap Stock Google Searches When Hurricane Corona hit the market last March, searches for "cheap stocks" spiked before subsiding and then exploding again recently. So what is a "cheap stock"? Is a penny stock cheaper than a stock that trades for more than $1,000 per share? Which is cheaper: a stock you can buy for $0.05 or a stock that costs $567? The answer is slightly complicated and it is probably best explained by an old saying in capitalism which is "the price for anything is what someone is willing to pay for it." So was Gamestop $GME worth $300 per share? It was for whoever paid $300 per share at the time to buy it but it isn't worth $300 at this moment! Invest in companies and not symbols. Generally speaking, instead of looking

High Tide Confirmation

 A  High Tide  has been confirmed on April 6, 2021 @ 4086 up 6%. April 6, 2021  High Tide  ?? The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 If 4086 is the crest, the next  Low Tide  should fall to 3800 to 3950. If this  High Tide  rises 10% it will finish at about 4239 and, if so, the next  Low Tide  should fall to 3924 to 4100. There are a couple of good (-5% to -10% dips)  Low Tides  coming soon if we are patient. Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Rising  ( S&P  @ 4082) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds light  VIX  around 17 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted

Tide Update

The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 Yesterday, on March 29, 2021 we hit 3982 Either we push through 3984 to 4112 (above) or we fall back to 3855 (below). Maybe the  VIX  will give us a clue...  VIX  stays around 20 and we push higher,  VIX  starts rising and we fall. Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Rising  ( S&P  @ 3953) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 21 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of an

High Tide Projection

The recent  Low Tide  fell to 3854 on March 25th and if that is the low point, the next  High Tide  (the fifth so far in 2021) should reach somewhere between 3963 to 4112. The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Rising  ( S&P  @ 3975) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 19 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing i

Low Tide Confirmed

A  Low Tide  was confirmed today at 3854 (down 3% so far). The March 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 6% to 3723 The January 29, 2021  Low Tide  fell 5% to 3694 The January 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 3% to 3663 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3914) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financ

High Tide #4 Update

The current  High Tide  (the fourth so far in 2021) reached 3984 on Thursday, March 17 at 13 days old and up 6%. We will remain in a  High Tide  until the  S&P  dips to 3855. There have been 36  High Tides  since 2016 (about 6 per year), and the average  High Tide  crested up 11% and lasted 40 days. Recently  High Tides  have been cresting up 6% - 7%, lasting around 22 days. The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3920) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Noth

High Tide Update

The current  High Tide  reached 3981 today and is 12 days old and up 6%. There have been 34  High Tides  since 2016, and the average  High Tide  crested up 11% and lasted 40 days. Recently they've been cresting up 6% - 7%. The March 1, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3915 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3964) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks inc

Trading The Tides Or Let It Ride?

Does trading  the Tides  really make a difference? The answer depends on the  volatility. Say the market steadily rises 20% over a period of time. If, during that period of time there was only  low volatility  ( VIX  less than 20), then if you traded/timed  the Tides  perfectly, you may earn only a few percentage points greater than the 20% you would have earned if you had just let it ride. So during periods of  low volatility , we are better off buying and holding (sailing), never returning to port. However, in periods of  high volatility  ( VIX  greater than 20), trading  the Tides  can produce significantly greater returns. Looking back over the period between June 15, 2020, and February 16, 2021 the  S&P  rose 33%. Because of the  high volatility  during that period, if you timed  the Tides  perfectly, you would have earned 76%. Volatility  is the key to trading  the Tides . And if you don't want to put in the work or we are in a period of  low volatility  then it is best t

Who Are You?

A few of my many takeaways from reading the great book " The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) ": I am a defensive investor. A defensive investor attempts to minimize losses by buying quality, bargain stocks when they are on sale. I don't get irrationally exuberant or overly pessimistic about the market. I cannot accurately "time the market" or predict the future. But I can study to try and determine when quality, bargain stocks are on sale. The years 2002, 2007, and 2020 had super  Low Tides  and, if you had bought stocks during these super  Low Tides  you would have achieved MUCH higher returns than at any other time in the last 20 years. The future is impossible to predict but you want to be positioned to take advantage of the next inevitable  Low Tide . There are usually 6 to 7 mini  Low Tides  each year and I'd rather buy during  Low Tides  than  High Tides . Knowing who you are w

High Tide Update

The current  High Tide  reached 3937 yesterday, 14 days old and up 7%. The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% The average  High Tide  since 2016 crests at up 11% There have been 34  High Tides  since 2016  and the average  High Tide  lasts 40 days Fair winds and following seas and buy low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3935) Tide Type: High Tide  (wind weakening with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisemen

Low Tide Forecast

Preparing for the next  Low Tide  phase. Usually, a good time to buy stocks.  Target  Low Tide  Levels: 3804 20% In (last reached February 2, 2021) 3737 30% In (January 6, 2021) 3633 50% In (December 11, 2020) 3512 80% In (November 10, 2020) 3209 100% In (September 24, 2020) Fair winds and following seas and buy low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3903) Tide Type: High Tide  (wind weakening with  VIX  around 22 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investm