10KTrades

Does trading  the Tides  really make a difference? The answer depends on the  volatility. Say the market steadily rises 20% over a period of time. If, during that period of time there was only  low volatility  ( VIX  less than 20), then if you traded/timed  the Tides  perfectly, you may earn only a few percentage points greater than the 20% you would have earned if you had just let it ride. So during periods of  low volatility , we are better off buying and holding (sailing), never returning to port. However, in periods of  high volatility  ( VIX  greater than 20), trading  the Tides  can produce significantly greater returns. Looking back over the period between June 15, 2020, and February 16, 2021 the  S&P  rose 33%. Because of the  high volatility  during that period, if you timed  the Tides  perfectly, you would have earned 76%. Volatility  is the key to trading  the Tides . And if you don't want to put in the work or we are in a period of  low volatility  then it is best t

A few of my many takeaways from reading the great book " The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) ": I am a defensive investor. A defensive investor attempts to minimize losses by buying quality, bargain stocks when they are on sale. I don't get irrationally exuberant or overly pessimistic about the market. I cannot accurately "time the market" or predict the future. But I can study to try and determine when quality, bargain stocks are on sale. The years 2002, 2007, and 2020 had super  Low Tides  and, if you had bought stocks during these super  Low Tides  you would have achieved MUCH higher returns than at any other time in the last 20 years. The future is impossible to predict but you want to be positioned to take advantage of the next inevitable  Low Tide . There are usually 6 to 7 mini  Low Tides  each year and I'd rather buy during  Low Tides  than  High Tides . Knowing who you are w

The current  High Tide  reached 3937 yesterday, 14 days old and up 7%. The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% The average  High Tide  since 2016 crests at up 11% There have been 34  High Tides  since 2016  and the average  High Tide  lasts 40 days Fair winds and following seas and buy low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3935) Tide Type: High Tide  (wind weakening with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisemen

Preparing for the next  Low Tide  phase. Usually, a good time to buy stocks.  Target  Low Tide  Levels: 3804 20% In (last reached February 2, 2021) 3737 30% In (January 6, 2021) 3633 50% In (December 11, 2020) 3512 80% In (November 10, 2020) 3209 100% In (September 24, 2020) Fair winds and following seas and buy low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3903) Tide Type: High Tide  (wind weakening with  VIX  around 22 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investm

It is important to have a long-term vision, to see into the future, preparing for what could happen. The seas ( market ) go up and down and if you can visualize the  Highest  and  Lowest Tide  levels coming, you might benefit by buying stocks when they are "on-sale" during the  Low Tides . Over the last 20 years, the difference between the  Lowest and Highest Tide  was on average 23%. That could indicate the  S&P  could retreat back to around 3200 if the  Highest Tide  is around 4000. We must be prepared because if this happens, 3200 could be a great time to buy stocks ( tip: you should always have money ready to be invested so you can take advantage when stocks go on sale. ) Note: During the most extreme years, 2008 and 2020, the difference between the  Lowest and Highest Tide  was as much as 50%. That could indicate the  S&P  could retreat back to around 2200. That could be a fantastic time to buy stocks but it is very unlikely to happen again this year. On the othe

The  Low Tide  lasted 3 days and retreated to 3694 on Friday, January 29 and we were able to launch a few boats ahead of the reversal. We are now moving up but not quite in the  High Tide  phase, usually a good time to sell stocks. Target  High Tide  Date Range: February 12 to March 11, 2021 Target  High Tide  Levels: 4081 100% Out 3931 80% Out Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Fair winds and following seas! Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3838) Rip Tide  (high,  VIX  around 25 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of an

The  tide  was at 3750 just 12 days ago on January 15th. We are now in a  Low Tide  phase. Usually, a good time to buy stocks.  Target  Low Tide  Date Range: January 27 - February 11, 2021 Target  Low Tide  Levels: 3737 30% In (last reached on January 6, 2021) 3663 50% In (last reached on January 4, 2021) 3512 80% In (last reached on November 10, 2020) Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Fair winds and following seas! Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3750) Rip Tide  (dangerous,  VIX  around 37 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated or endorsed including any third-party links, resources or advertise

I use rising and falling tides to paint a picture of stock market movement with "buy low" and "sell high" in mind. When the tide is high it is marked in red (for sell), when the tide is low it is marked in green (for buy). Low Tide : the lowest point and sometimes a good time to buy stocks. High Tide : the highest point and sometimes a good time to sell stocks.  Below is a list of tides over the last 5 years (note: the tides on 1/21/21 and 1/4/21 are not verified yet.) It shows there are better times to buy or sell than others but it is also one of the best illustrations that displays how, over time, you can buy good companies with a long-term future at almost any price and if you wait long enough, you'll probably make money. Date High Low 1/21/21 3,861 5% 1/4/21 3,663 -3% 1/4/21 3,770 7% 11/12/20 3,519 -3% 11/9/20 3,646 13% 10/30/20 3,234 -9% 10/12/20 3,550 11% 9/24/20 3,209 -11% 9/2/20 3,588 20% 6/29/20 3,000 -5% 6/19/20 3,156 6% 6/15/20 2,966 -8% 6/8/20 3