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Hurricane Corona Tide Watch

Hurricane Corona Watch:

Here are the Tide comparisons so far:
Fifth Low Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↓ 22% over 41 days (day 364, ↓ 30% overall)Great Recession ↓ 14% over 38 days (day 343, ↓ 28% overall)Corona: ↓ 7% over 1 days (day 42, ↓ 27% overall)Fourth High Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↑ 10% over 41 days (day 313, ↓ 11% overall)Great Recession ↑ 9% over 27 days (day 305, ↓ 17% overall)Corona: ↑ 21% over 8 days (day 41, ↓ 22% overall)Fourth Low Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↓ 13% over 45 days (day 272)Great Recession ↓ 17% over 57 days (day 278)Corona: ↓ 11% over 4 days (day 33)Third High Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↑ 10% over 19 days (day 227 of the hurricane)Great Recession ↑ 15% over 63 days (day 221)Corona: ↑ 8% over 1 day (day 29)Third Low Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↓ 15% over 47 daysGreat Recession ↓ 10% over 45 days, receded to 1256.98 on March 17, 2008Corona: ↓ 16% over 5 days, receded to 2280.52 on March 18, 2020Second High Ti…

Hurricane Low Tide #6

Today we established Low Tides #5 @ 2486.22. It is possible Hurricane Corona ended on Low Tides #4, March 23rd @ 2191.86. If Hurricane Corona is not yet over, unfortunately, we might not have seen the worst yet.

Enter Low Tide #6. Both previous hurricanes had huge receding tides that coincidentally happened on Low Tide #6:
Hurricane Dot-Com BubbleLow Tide #6, started on day 424 and produced a 28% drop over 122 days.Hurricane Great RecessionLow Tide #6, started on day 344 and produced a 33% drop over 21 days. To try to predict what a similar Low Tide #6 would do during Hurricane Corona, let's compare the other  Low Tides #6 to their respective Low Tides #4 (the most recent Low Tide during Hurricane Corona). Because High Tides #4 and #5 fall between Low Tides #4 and Low Tides #6, the drop between Low Tide #6 and Low Tide #4 was not quite as bad as the the drop between Low Tide #6 and High Tide #5: Hurricane Dot-Com BubbleLow Tide #6 dropped 25% below Low Tides #4.Hurricane Great Reces…

Hurricane Waves

Looking at the previous hurricanes, the tide levels seem to come in waves. A wave is defined as a series of tides rising and falling within a similar range. You can trade within a wave but you do not want to trade at the end of wave which tends to be a violent drop into the next wave (trading range).

The Dot-Com Bubble had 18 tides over 4 waves and the Great Recession had 26 tides over 4 waves.

Wave 3 - Trading Range Around 27% - 46% Below The Start Of The Hurricane:
Dot-Com Bubble6 tides lasted 335 days from 09/21/01 @945 ↓ 39% to 08/22/02 @965 ↓ 39%Great Recession14 tides lasted 122 days from 10/10/08 @844 ↓ 46% to 02/09/09 @875 ↓ 44%Corona7 tides lasted 21 days from 03/12/20 @ 2479 ↓ 27% to 04/01/20 @ 2467 ↓ 27%Wave 2 - Trading Range Around 15% - 20% Below The Start Of The Hurricane:
Dot-Com Bubble6 tides lasted 216 days from 10/18/00 @1306 ↓ 16% to 05/21/01 @1316 ↓ 15%Great Recession8 tides lasted 240 days from 01/23/08 @1270 ↓ 19% to 09/19/08 @1264 ↓ 20%Corona: 2 tides las…

High Tide #4 Head Fake

Just when it looked like High Tide #4 was receding to begin Low Tide #5, the Tide began to rise again and High Tide #4 lived on, now up 21% from Low Tide #4.

Is it common for a High Tide to rise over 19% during a hurricane? Well, both the Dot-Com Bubble and the Great Recession each had 3 High Tides rise over 19%.

Same Course And Heading as yesterday:
Preparing some boats to depart around the 2000 - 2200 Tide Level.Keep cruising (hold) existing positions (even though the hurricane is likely not over, the market could rebound sharply and calling these boats in now would miss the bounce.)No short positions planned.Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 2630)Rip Tide (VIX around 51)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of futur…

Course And Heading 03/30/20

It is difficult to discuss Hurricane Corona as a financial crises when people are dying as a result of the horrible Coronavirus disease COVID-19. My heart goes out to all who have become sick or have died and everyone has been impacted by this terrible disease. We need to fight hard by social distancing to minimize the number of deaths. It is truly a health crises and the worst is yet to come.

This week, we either start day 40 of Hurricane Corona with:
We are still rising in High Tide #4, and/orThe hurricane is over with Low Tide #4 @ 2295.56, orLow Tide #5 (possibly established Friday @ 2520) Given the fact that both previous hurricanes lasted 930 and 512 days before they exhausted, it is likely doubtful that Hurricane Corona is over.

Therefore, here is the strategy:
Preparing some boats to depart around the 2000 - 2200 Tide Level.Keep cruising (hold) existing positions (even though the hurricane is likely not over, the market could rebound sharply and calling these boats in now would …

Course And Heading 03/23/20

A new Low TideHurricane CoronaLow Tide #4 has been established at 2295.56 down 7%. The averge Low Tide during a hurricane recedes between 16% and 18% so Low Tide #4 will possibly recede further.

We've now seen 7 Tides in the first 30 days of  Hurricane Corona. It took both previous hurricanes 272 and 278 days to experience 7 Tides. It seems like forever ago but it was only 1 week ago when we set Course And Heading 03/16/22 at 2708, 400 points higher than we are today.

Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

A few dinghies were splashed last week and all but one were called back to port after very short voyages. The rest of the fleet that has been moored at the dock, stayed at the dock and the sailing fleet continues to ride out the storms.
Preparing some boats to depart around the 2050 Tide Level.Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing positions on strength.No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Low Tide (S&P at 23…

Is That A Dinghy?

When I refer to a "boat", I am refering to a stock symbol position. For example, let's say I am favorable to the stock $KHC. I might sail (buy) "$KHC I" at a price and then sail (buy) "$KCH II" at another price and "$KHC III" at yet another price. In this case, I have 3 boats sailing, all using the symbol $KHC.

In addition to the symbol selection, there is also a decision to make about the size of the boat I sail. There are deckboats, flats boats, powerboats, house boats, inflatable boats, jon boats, blue water boats, cargo ships, aircraft carriers and passenger ships (I call these huge boats "Titanics") and more. The larger the investment, the larger the boat.

My fleet consists of up to 30 boats and I try to not put too much money into any one boat or group of boats at the same time. That way if a boat in my fleet gets damaged, I still have other boats in my fleet that might be unaffected. A single boat should never represent more…

Course And Heading 03/16/20

High Tide has been established at 2708.47 by a whipsaw 10% move in 1 day. A few boats, dinghies (small investments), were sailed last week and were called back in with the High Tide rushing in. The rest of the fleet that has been moored at the dock, stayed at the dock last week and the sailing fleet got some calm water to end the week.

Hurricane Corona Watch:
First Low Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↓ 14% over 21 daysGreat Recession ↓ 11% over 46 daysCorona: ↓ 16% over 9 daysFirst High Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↑ 11% over 12 daysGreat Recession ↑ 8% over 15 daysCorona: ↑ 10% over 4 daysSecond Low Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↓ 8% over 23 daysGreat Recession ↓ 17% over 43 daysCorona: ↓ 21% over 9 daysSecond High Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↑ 12% over 100 daysGreat Recession ↑ 10% over 9 daysCorona: ↑ 10% over 1 day (so far) Aside from the speed of the first 2 Coronatides, the tides are remarkably similar. Therefore: Preparing some boats (dinghies) t…

Hurricane Corona

As you know, 10KTrades uses sailing as a metaphor for investing using terms like boats, fleet, tides, storms and more.

A "Storm" is particularly bad weather often causing a Low Tide and possibly even a Rip TideStorms happen occasionally as a result of bad weather such as bad economic or political news.

A Hurricane is a violent storm of large magnitude and often has several "storms within the storm". The entire world is now hearing about Hurricane Corona. Hurricane Corona is a financial storm with a devastating beginning never seen before.

To put it into perspective, let's start to compare Hurricane Corona (20-?) to our last two hurricanes: Hurricane Great Recession (07-09) and Hurricane Dot-Com Bubble (00-02).
Hurricane Dot-Com Bubble (00-02) began March 24, 2000 at 1552.87 and lasted 930 days until October 10, 2002 dropping 51% to 768.63.Hurricane Great Recession (07-09) began October 11, 2007 at 1576.09 and lasted 512 days until March 6, 2009 dropping 58% to…

Course And Heading 03/09/20

Hello Hurricane Corona. Although it has only been 19 days, it seems forever ago since the Record King High Tide crested at 3394 on February 19th.

The fleet that is moored at the dock, stayed at the dock last week and the sailing fleet continued to get battered by a crazy roller coaster ride named Hurricane Corona.

This week's weather remains a guessing game. It looks likely the Tide will pull all the way back to the October 4th level of 2856 which was recently matched on February 28, 2020. If we are still in a Low Tide and we break through, then we possibly sail all the way down to around 2500.
Same as last week: Preparing some boats to depart around the 2500 Tide Level.Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing positions to the 3100 Tide Level.No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Mid Tide (S&P at 2902)Rip Tide (VIX around 41.94)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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Course And Heading 03/02/20

Last week was quite a week in the markets. The Record King High Tide crested at 3394 on February 19th rising a whopping 19% since the Low Tide observed on October 4th.

Some of the fleet set sail last week on the Low Tide confirmation around 3136 and took a beating as the powerful storm pulled the Tide all the way back to the October 4th level of 2856.

This week remains a guessing game as to which scenario unfolds. If Friday marked a Low Tide of 2856 then maybe we can sail up to around 3100. If not, we must be prepared to weather a storm that could do even further damage to our boats.
Preparing boats to depart around the 2500 Tide Level.Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing positions to the 3100 Tide Level.No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas! Never panic.

Trading Tide Levels:
Low Tide (S&P at 2954)Rip Tide (VIX around 40)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information…

Course And Heading 11/25/19

Three of the last four High Tides have expanded around 54 days. This Record King High Tide is now 51 days old and has risen 10% since the last Low Tide on October 4th.

The fleet is ready to sail upon the next Low Tide confirmation.
Preparing boats to depart (waiting to establish long positions).Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
King High Tide (S&P at 3132)Neap Tide (VIX around 12)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endor…

Course And Heading 11/18/19

The Record King High Tide is confirmed at 44 days old and has risen 9% since the last Low Tide on October 4th.

Have to remain patient with this Tide. The fleet will remain anchored at port during these beautiful conditions waiting for the next Low Tide confirmation.
Preparing boats to depart (waiting to establish long positions).Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
King High Tide (S&P at 3123)Neap Tide (VIX around 12.5)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. …

October 2019 Returns

MTD: +3% over previous monthYTD Return: +36%1 Year Return +30%3 Year Avg Annual Return +13% per year5 Year Avg Annual Return +47% per year10 Year Avg Annual Return +36% per yearLifetime Avg Annual Return -1.25% per year Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3100)Neap Tide (VIX around 12.50)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other comp…

Course And Heading 11/11/19

The Record King High Tide continues to roll in! It is now 38 days old and has risen 9% since the last Low Tide on October 4th.

Here is a look at the previous 12 High Tides (in no particular order):
7% 37 days11% 53 days9% 54 days15% 53 days7% 4 days6% 15 days8% 10 days9% 83 days8% 39 days6% 15 days6% 11 days10% 18 days Another 2% gain puts the S&P at 3164 and another 2 weeks would put the Record King High Tide at around 50 days old. Will it happen? Will it not happen?

Either way, it doesn't seem like a great time to set sail so the majority of the fleet will remain anchored at port waiting for the next Low Tide confirmation.
Preparing boats to depart (waiting to establish long positions).Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3100)Neap Tide (VIX around 12.50)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More Ab…

Course And Heading 11/04/19

It sure is fun to observe a Record King High Tide that is now 30 days old and has risen 8% since the last Low Tide. It could continue to somewhere around 3100 and last to the middle or end of November.

The majority of the fleet will remain anchored at port waiting for the next Low Tide confirmation.
Preparing boats to depart (establish long positions).Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3080)Neap Tide (VIX around 13)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your ent…

Course And Heading 10/28/19

King High Tide was established Friday October 24 and could continue to somewhere around 3100 and to the middle or end of November.

This is a time where patience really comes into play. The ocean looks so inviting with a calm VIX and rising tide. But I've got to stick to the plan knowing eventually a storm will arrive and it's not a matter of "if" but "when".

The majority of the fleet will remain anchored at port waiting for the next Low Tide.
Preparing boats to depart (establish long positions).Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3040)Neap Tide (VIX around 13)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an in…

High Tide Confirmation

Another King High Tide was established today and it is a fairly young High Tide at only 21 days old. This Tide could continue to somewhere around 3100.

Might be able to send out some boats in the next few weeks!

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3023)Neap Tide (VIX around 13)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a comprehensive and personal financial plan and all other components that…

Course And Heading 10/21/19

I am sailing part of my fleet in what appears to be a 17 day old High Tide with the potential to rise for another 15 to 37+ days which could crest sometime between November 5 and November 25.

However, the S&P is only 35 points below the High Tide confirmation range of 3039 to 3102 and if it reaches this level, the High Tide might end abruptly.

The majority of the fleet will remain anchored at port waiting for the next Low Tide.
No new cruises (long positions) planned.Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to port (sell) existing cruises (positions).No short positions planned. Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Rising High Tide (S&P at 3004)Neap Tide (VIX @ 14.4)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investme…

Rip Tide Season

We are now entering Rip Tide Season.
Rip Tide: A strong flow either way. Rip Tides happen when there is news or earning about a stock, or political or economic unrest, and during this time a stock can move violently in one direction or another. A classic Rip Tide example is BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond) Trade #41:
12/24/18 Low Tide $10.4604/10/19 High Tide $19.57 (earnings released after close)04/11/19 Rip Tide opening price of $17.0808/15/19 Low Tide $7.31 (127 days of pain if no STOP-LOSS)10/15/19 $12.36 As you can see, BBBY Trade #41 has been a decent trade as long as you avoided the Rip Tide near $19.57.

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Receding High Tide (S&P falling from an all-time high of 3027.98)Spring Tide (VIX rising to 22.04)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of futu…