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 The current or most recent  High Tide  is 35 days old and has risen 9% to 4219. We are due for a  Low Tide  and a  Low Tide  will be established below 4082. The current  High Tide  is up 9% at 4219 The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level High  ( S&P  @ 4190) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 17 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your ent

I am writing this right now as a diversion! I want to buy something so bad today but a  Low Tide  has not formed so I should sit back and wait for it. A  High Tide  recently rose to +9% and research showed a  Low Tide  forming in the near future was likely. Sure enough, the winds ( VIX ) have started increasing and the tide has started falling but I find myself chomping at the bit to buy something even though a  Low Tide  has not been verified. Investing with discipline and patience  is very difficult, in part, because the weather is so hard to predict. Buy too soon and you drop with the tide, but if you stay on the dock during a  High Tide , you miss out on gains. Trust the research. Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Falling  ( S&P  @ 4127) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds increasing  VIX  around 19 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational pur

Here are the  Low Tide  drops by year: 2021: -3%, -5%, -6%, -3%, ?? 2020: -4%, -16%, -21%, -16%, -11%, -7%, -3%, -5%, -6%, -8%, -5%, -11%, -9%, -4% 2019: -3%, -3%, -8%. -7%, -5% 2018: -12%, -5%, -9% -5%, -4%, -11%, -7%, -16% 2017: -3% 2016: -11%, -7%, -4%, -5% Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Rising  ( S&P  @ 4150) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds light  VIX  below 17 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions a

Trading stocks has been a popular topic lately with stories like Gamestop $GME dominating the headlines. Take a look at this chart by Google Trends showing the number of searches for "cheap stocks" since 2004: Cheap Stock Google Searches When Hurricane Corona hit the market last March, searches for "cheap stocks" spiked before subsiding and then exploding again recently. So what is a "cheap stock"? Is a penny stock cheaper than a stock that trades for more than $1,000 per share? Which is cheaper: a stock you can buy for $0.05 or a stock that costs $567? The answer is slightly complicated and it is probably best explained by an old saying in capitalism which is "the price for anything is what someone is willing to pay for it." So was Gamestop $GME worth $300 per share? It was for whoever paid $300 per share at the time to buy it but it isn't worth $300 at this moment! Invest in companies and not symbols. Generally speaking, instead of looking

 A  High Tide  has been confirmed on April 6, 2021 @ 4086 up 6%. April 6, 2021  High Tide  ?? The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 If 4086 is the crest, the next  Low Tide  should fall to 3800 to 3950. If this  High Tide  rises 10% it will finish at about 4239 and, if so, the next  Low Tide  should fall to 3924 to 4100. There are a couple of good (-5% to -10% dips)  Low Tides  coming soon if we are patient. Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Rising  ( S&P  @ 4082) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds light  VIX  around 17 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted

The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 Yesterday, on March 29, 2021 we hit 3982 Either we push through 3984 to 4112 (above) or we fall back to 3855 (below). Maybe the  VIX  will give us a clue...  VIX  stays around 20 and we push higher,  VIX  starts rising and we fall. Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Rising  ( S&P  @ 3953) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 21 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of an

The recent  Low Tide  fell to 3854 on March 25th and if that is the low point, the next  High Tide  (the fifth so far in 2021) should reach somewhere between 3963 to 4112. The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Rising  ( S&P  @ 3975) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 19 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing i

A  Low Tide  was confirmed today at 3854 (down 3% so far). The March 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 5% to 3723 The January 29, 2021  Low Tide  fell 5% to 3694 The January 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 3% to 3663 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3914) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financ

The current  High Tide  (the fourth so far in 2021) reached 3984 on Thursday, March 17 at 13 days old and up 6%. We will remain in a  High Tide  until the  S&P  dips to 3855. There have been 36  High Tides  since 2016 (about 6 per year), and the average  High Tide  crested up 11% and lasted 40 days. Recently  High Tides  have been cresting up 6% - 7%, lasting around 22 days. The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3920) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Noth

The current  High Tide  reached 3981 today and is 12 days old and up 6%. There have been 34  High Tides  since 2016, and the average  High Tide  crested up 11% and lasted 40 days. Recently they've been cresting up 6% - 7%. The March 1, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3915 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3964) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks inc

Does trading  the Tides  really make a difference? The answer depends on the  volatility. Say the market steadily rises 20% over a period of time. If, during that period of time there was only  low volatility  ( VIX  less than 20), then if you traded/timed  the Tides  perfectly, you may earn only a few percentage points greater than the 20% you would have earned if you had just let it ride. So during periods of  low volatility , we are better off buying and holding (sailing), never returning to port. However, in periods of  high volatility  ( VIX  greater than 20), trading  the Tides  can produce significantly greater returns. Looking back over the period between June 15, 2020, and February 16, 2021 the  S&P  rose 33%. Because of the  high volatility  during that period, if you timed  the Tides  perfectly, you would have earned 76%. Volatility  is the key to trading  the Tides . And if you don't want to put in the work or we are in a period of  low volatility  then it is best t

A few of my many takeaways from reading the great book " The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) ": I am a defensive investor. A defensive investor attempts to minimize losses by buying quality, bargain stocks when they are on sale. I don't get irrationally exuberant or overly pessimistic about the market. I cannot accurately "time the market" or predict the future. But I can study to try and determine when quality, bargain stocks are on sale. The years 2002, 2007, and 2020 had super  Low Tides  and, if you had bought stocks during these super  Low Tides  you would have achieved MUCH higher returns than at any other time in the last 20 years. The future is impossible to predict but you want to be positioned to take advantage of the next inevitable  Low Tide . There are usually 6 to 7 mini  Low Tides  each year and I'd rather buy during  Low Tides  than  High Tides . Knowing who you are w

The current  High Tide  reached 3937 yesterday, 14 days old and up 7%. The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% The average  High Tide  since 2016 crests at up 11% There have been 34  High Tides  since 2016  and the average  High Tide  lasts 40 days Fair winds and following seas and buy low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3935) Tide Type: High Tide  (wind weakening with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisemen

Preparing for the next  Low Tide  phase. Usually, a good time to buy stocks.  Target  Low Tide  Levels: 3804 20% In (last reached February 2, 2021) 3737 30% In (January 6, 2021) 3633 50% In (December 11, 2020) 3512 80% In (November 10, 2020) 3209 100% In (September 24, 2020) Fair winds and following seas and buy low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3903) Tide Type: High Tide  (wind weakening with  VIX  around 22 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investm

It is important to have a long-term vision, to see into the future, preparing for what could happen. The seas ( market ) go up and down and if you can visualize the  Highest  and  Lowest Tide  levels coming, you might benefit by buying stocks when they are "on-sale" during the  Low Tides . Over the last 20 years, the difference between the  Lowest and Highest Tide  was on average 23%. That could indicate the  S&P  could retreat back to around 3200 if the  Highest Tide  is around 4000. We must be prepared because if this happens, 3200 could be a great time to buy stocks ( tip: you should always have money ready to be invested so you can take advantage when stocks go on sale. ) Note: During the most extreme years, 2008 and 2020, the difference between the  Lowest and Highest Tide  was as much as 50%. That could indicate the  S&P  could retreat back to around 2200. That could be a fantastic time to buy stocks but it is very unlikely to happen again this year. On the othe

The  Low Tide  lasted 3 days and retreated to 3694 on Friday, January 29 and we were able to launch a few boats ahead of the reversal. We are now moving up but not quite in the  High Tide  phase, usually a good time to sell stocks. Target  High Tide  Date Range: February 12 to March 11, 2021 Target  High Tide  Levels: 4081 100% Out 3931 80% Out Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Fair winds and following seas! Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3838) Rip Tide  (high,  VIX  around 25 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of an

The  tide  was at 3750 just 12 days ago on January 15th. We are now in a  Low Tide  phase. Usually, a good time to buy stocks.  Target  Low Tide  Date Range: January 27 - February 11, 2021 Target  Low Tide  Levels: 3737 30% In (last reached on January 6, 2021) 3663 50% In (last reached on January 4, 2021) 3512 80% In (last reached on November 10, 2020) Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Fair winds and following seas! Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3750) Rip Tide  (dangerous,  VIX  around 37 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated or endorsed including any third-party links, resources or advertise

I use rising and falling tides to paint a picture of stock market movement with "buy low" and "sell high" in mind. When the tide is high it is marked in red (for sell), when the tide is low it is marked in green (for buy). Low Tide : the lowest point and sometimes a good time to buy stocks. High Tide : the highest point and sometimes a good time to sell stocks.  Below is a list of tides over the last 5 years (note: the tides on 1/21/21 and 1/4/21 are not verified yet.) It shows there are better times to buy or sell than others but it is also one of the best illustrations that displays how, over time, you can buy good companies with a long-term future at almost any price and if you wait long enough, you'll probably make money. Date High Low 1/21/21 3,861 5% 1/4/21 3,663 -3% 1/4/21 3,770 7% 11/12/20 3,519 -3% 11/9/20 3,646 13% 10/30/20 3,234 -9% 10/12/20 3,550 11% 9/24/20 3,209 -11% 9/2/20 3,588 20% 6/29/20 3,000 -5% 6/19/20 3,156 6% 6/15/20 2,966 -8% 6/8/20 3