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Showing posts with the label sell stocks

How often does a Low Tide drop more than 10%?

Since January 1, 2016, there has been 41  Low Tides . This current  low tide  has retreated 11% to just below 4300 and is the first  Low Tide  since September 24, 2020 that has dropped more than 10%. How often does a  Low Tide  drop more than 10%? During the same period, ten (10)  Low Tides  dropped more than 10%. This equals one in every four  Low Tides . If the winds remain elevated, we might get an opportunity to  launch  the second wave of  boats . Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level : ( S&P  @ 4300) Tide Type: Low  (winds very strong with  VIX  around 36 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries

Storming & Sailing

Low Tides  are typically a  great time  to launch boats. This current  low tide  has retreated 9% to just below 4400. 31% of the  fleet  is currently sailing S&P  @ 4100 = possible  launch time S&P  @ 3800 = possible  launch time If the winds remain elevated, we might get an opportunity to  launch  the second wave of  boats . Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level : ( S&P  @ 4398) Tide Type: Low  (winds strong with  VIX  around 30 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links

Conditional Launch Times

Previously, in the post, One-Third X 3 , we discussed launching up to three (3)  boats  for each  stock symbol . This creates three different departure times (diversified launch times) for the  boats  should the conditions change at the dock. I like to study the overall market and schedule launch times based on the conditions. Here's an example (where 0% to 10% of the  fleet  is already sailing): S&P  @ 4600 = 27% of the  fleet  is launched S&P  @ 4100 = 30% of the  fleet  is launched (60% of the  fleet  is sailing) S&P  @ 3800 = 33% of the  fleet  is launched (90% of the  fleet  is sailing) And then maybe:  S&P  @ 5200 = the entire  fleet  returns to the dock Diversify, Diversify, Diversify , NEVER put all of your eggs in a stock at one price point! Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level : ( S&P  @ 4600) Tide Type: Low  (winds picking up with  VIX  around 22 knots) Subscribe to 10KT

Sudden Bursts Of Speed

Many days sailing a stock market boat are unremarkable, maybe even a bit boring. Your boat fluctuates a few percentage points every day and overall it seems to be stuck in the same spot or barely inching closer to, or further from, your destination. Then, without warning, your boat picks up speed, changing by a few percentage points in the same direction, up or down. It moves in the same direction for several days, maybe longer. Did the wind just pick up? We can speculate as to why this happens but it does seem to happen quite often. Perhaps, the lesson is to stay the course, be patient with your voyage when it seems like it is going nowhere and if your boat starts moving, be ready as it might reach one of  your exit goals quicker than you think. Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level : ( S&P  @ 4752) Tide Type: Low  (winds picking up with  VIX  around 19 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More Ab

Confused Seas = Confused Investors?

Sailors refer to 'confused sea' conditions as erratic shifts in wind directions that causes waves to come from different directions that are irregular and unpredictable. We prefer to sail in 'predictable' conditions (as if anything is really predictable) by staying away from hazards, shallow water, low visibility and other factors. Maybe a better word than predictable is 'probable'. Either way, maybe it is not a great time to leave the dock at the moment because of the confused seas we are seeing. The most recent  Low Tide  dropped to 4495. or 5% down, on December 3rd. Will we break through and confirm we are still in that same  Low Tide  or are we actually in a  High Tide , that will eventually breach 4765, and we are only experiencing some short term turbulence? Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level : ( S&P  @ 4544) Tide Type: Low  (winds strong with  VIX  around 26 knots) Subs

2022 EARLY Forecasts

With nearly a month left in 2021, these forecasts will be updated. But here are some early market projections for 2022: Scenario 1: 8% Growth December 27, 2022  High Tide  @ 4856 March 20, 2022  Low Tide  @ 3955 Scenario 2: 21% Growth December 27, 2022  High Tide  @ 5437 January 25, 2022  Low Tide  @ 4341 Scenario 3: -10% Growth January 11, 2022  High Tide  @ 4771 December 27, 2022  Low Tide  @ 4029 Scenario 4: -13% Growth With A  Hurricane January 11, 2022  High Tide  @ 4771 May 13, 2022  Low Tide  @ 3292 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 4500) Tide Type: Low Tide  (winds approaching hurricane strength with  VIX  around 35 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarant

Low Tide Update

 The current  Low Tide  dropped to 4510 today, down 5% so far. Here are some potential sailing times : 4510 down 5% 4388 down 7.5% 4269 down 10% 4032 down 15% Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level : ( S&P  @ 4513) Tide Type: Low  (winds strong with  VIX  around 31 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner with a comprehensive and personal fi

Trading Not To Lose

As I previously wrote in the STOP-LOSS post, I love to compete and I HATE to lose. As an athlete, I was coached to "play to win" and don't "play to not lose". In sports this makes sense because if you play not to lose you might play tight and timid to avoid making mistakes and you can get outplayed. But as a trader, this is potentially a recipe for financial disaster. As a trader, the majority of your fleet should be aircraft carriers built on the principal of "don't lose money". Trading your  boats  "tight and timid" is possibly a good thing. It forces you to patiently wait for good entry points and to research for low-risk, high-reward opportunities. It helps you avoid chasing the highs and the "next big thing". Slow and steady often wins the race. That said, jet skis  can be fun to trade even if you fall off from time to time and a small portion of your  fleet  can be dedicated to these high-risk exhilarating  boats . Take

Low Tide Established

The first  Low Tide  in 49 days has been confirmed at 4589 (down 3% so far). This is the 8th  Low Tide  so far in 2021.  The October 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 6% to 4279 The July 19, 2021  Low Tide  fell 4% to 4233 The May 12, 2021  Low Tide  fell 4% to 4057 The March 25, 2021  Low Tide  fell 3% to 3854 The March 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 6% to 3723 The January 29, 2021  Low Tide  fell 5% to 3694 The January 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 3% to 3663 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Falling  ( S&P  @ 4619) Tide Type: Low Tide  (winds strong with  VIX  around 26.5 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risk

One-Third X 3

As I mentioned in Diversify, Diversify, Diversify , NEVER put all of your eggs in one basket! You can begin diversifying by first selecting a  variety of investments ( boats ) for you to watch  and when you choose your boats (fleet) (portfolio) , you should consider the sector  each  boat  operates in. For example, you probably shouldn't create a  fleet  of only consumer discretionary  stocks  that all compete with each other in case they all generally move in the same direction. Choosing  boats  from different sectors allows you to profit from one sector when another sector might be struggling. It also enables you to risk a small portion of your portfolio to  speculative investments  hoping for the large returns than can come with speculative investments . When I set sail, I further  diversify  by launching several (usually up to three (3))  boats  within the same  boat . To clarify, let's say I like the conditions to sail $GM . First, I dedicate no more than 20% of my po

FINALLY MADE UP FOR EARLY TRADING LOSSES!!!

In the book, The Intelligent Investor by Graham (page 12, 2006), it talks about one of the most important concepts in investing which is to AVOID BIG LOSSES and it reads  "Once you lose 95% of your money, you have to gain 1,900% just to get back to where you started. " Gaining 1,900% is HARD!!! When I first started investing, I would put all of my eggs into one basket (the stock  WCOM  was one example.) And, in the first few years of doing this, I nearly lost EVERYTHING I INVESTED. Since learning those valuable lessons, I have remained  diversified  in my investments, never putting all my money into one investment and I use a STOP LOSS technique to avoid being paralyzed as I watch a stock fall. I win some and I lose some but I win more often than I lose and if any single investment goes extremely bad, I try to be positioned to never lose more than 20% of my overall portfolio. Today I can finally say words that I have been waiting for years to say: "I FINALLY MADE UP FOR

High Tide

The  Tide  has been rising since October 4th reaching 4541 yesterday (up 6% so far). If 4541 is the end of this  High Tide , we can expect the next  Low Tide  to fall to at least 3% to 4405. The October 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 6% to 4279 The July 19, 2021  Low Tide  fell 4% to 4233 The May 12, 2021  Low Tide  fell 4% to 4057 The March 25, 2021  Low Tide  fell 3% to 3854 The March 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 6% to 3723 The January 29, 2021  Low Tide  fell 5% to 3694 The January 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 3% to 3663 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Falling  ( S&P  @ 4536) Tide Type: Low Tide  (winds calm with  VIX  around 15.39 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of

Low Tide Alert

A  Low Tide  has been confirmed at 4240 (down 3% so far). If 4240 is the end of this  Low Tide , we can expect the next  High Tide  to rise to 4494 sometime in August or September. 4494 seems high so 4240 might not be the bottom if this  Low Tide . The May 12, 2021  Low Tide  fell 4% to 4057 The March 25, 2021  Low Tide  fell 3% to 3854 The March 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 6% to 3723 The January 29, 2021  Low Tide  fell 5% to 3694 The January 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 3% to 3663 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Falling  ( S&P  @ 4262) Tide Type: Low Tide  (winds picked up with  VIX  around 22.5 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. In

Exit Strategy When You Buy A Stock

When you buy a boat,  buy it with the sale of it in mind . Take a look at this example: Let's say a boat is selling for $40 per share during a  Low Tide  phase and your research shows it might be a good time to buy. Before you buy, you set a goal that you'd like to make a 10% return so you will return that boat to the dock at $44. How likely is it that the boat you are sailing can reach $44? Has it reached $44 before? How many times has it reached $44? In this stock trading example, the $44 is way more important than the $40 because the stock HAS to get to $44 to make this trade work. How long are you willing to wait to hit $44? You were hoping to sail this boat less than a month, but, after you set sail, you start looking at your charts and you see it's been a while since this boat sold for $44. Furthermore, based on deteriorating  sea conditions , you think it might take a while to get back to $44 and even further research shows the boat now has a better chance of hitting

Trade Or Hold?

Trading individual stocks is time-intensive, risky and can be an emotional rollercoaster. So why trade? The answer to this question is different for everyone but here are some considerations: Do you have a high-level understanding of stocks and the stock market? Can you afford to lose every dollar you are investing? Do you like to gamble and take risks with your money? Do you enjoy researching stocks and learning about companies? Do you have enough time to research? Are you trying to trade as a hobby or a full-time job? Notice how none of those considerations are "do you want to get rich?". Very few traders outperform the overall market and you have a FAR better chance to make money if you invest your hard-earned money in the overall market than you do if you try to trade individual stocks. I say "buy  $VOO  or something similar during  Low Tides .  $VOO  tracks the performance of the S&P 500 index so it requires far less research, time, and analysis than individual

How To Choose The Right Boat

Choosing a  boat  (stock) to invest in can be (and probably should be) a difficult decision. Invest in a money pit and you will watch your hard-earned money vanish. Invest in a  boat  that requires very little maintenance and increases in value and you will have a great time investing. There are many factors to consider when choosing a boat such as their industry, how long they've been in business, the popularity of their products or services, total debt, price-to-earnings, growth rate, market cap and so much more. To make it simple, I will suggest one basic rule to start with: invest the majority of your money in  boats  that you know or, even better yet,  boats  with products or services that you personally use in your own life. Household names attract a lot of attention and are not without risk but if you believe in their products or services, perhaps others will agree with you and their stock will go up over time. And to make it even more simple. Instead of sailing an individua

Tide Update

A  Low Tide  was confirmed on May 12 at 4057 (down 4%). If we are in a  High Tide  then it will test 4300 sometime in June (4238 is the record  High Tide ) If we are still in a  Low Tide  then it will test 4057 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 4192) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds steady with  VIX  around 19 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certifi

2021 Tide Forecasts

 There have been 5  Low Tides  so far in 2021 (about 1 per month). Here are the  Low Tides  by year: 2021: 5 so far through May 12 2020: 14 2019: 5 2018: 8 2017: 1 2016: 4 As you can see,  Low Tides  seem to form about once every two months with the exception of  2017 when there was only one (on March 27th). In 2017, you would have waited all year for the next  Low Tide  that never came. Last year was pretty volatile with 14  Low Tides  giving you plenty of opportunities to participate (6 of the  Low Tides  last year were in March and April 2020 alone). Here is a  Low Tide  forecast for the rest of this year based on average  High  and  Low Tides : December 15 4409  Projected October 21 4299  Projected August 28 4157  Projected July 5 4128 Projected May 12 4057 March 25 3854 March 4 3723 January 29 3694 January 4 3663 Note: because of the high S&P price to earnings, rising inflation possibly leading to rising interest rates, and the probability of higher taxes, today's  Tide Le

High Tide Update

 The current or most recent  High Tide  is 35 days old and has risen 9% to 4219. We are due for a  Low Tide  and a  Low Tide  will be established below 4082. The current  High Tide  is up 9% at 4219 The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level High  ( S&P  @ 4190) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 17 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your ent

It So Difficult To Wait At The Dock

I am writing this right now as a diversion! I want to buy something so bad today but a  Low Tide  has not formed so I should sit back and wait for it. A  High Tide  recently rose to +9% and research showed a  Low Tide  forming in the near future was likely. Sure enough, the winds ( VIX ) have started increasing and the tide has started falling but I find myself chomping at the bit to buy something even though a  Low Tide  has not been verified. Investing with discipline and patience  is very difficult, in part, because the weather is so hard to predict. Buy too soon and you drop with the tide, but if you stay on the dock during a  High Tide , you miss out on gains. Trust the research. Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level Falling  ( S&P  @ 4127) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds increasing  VIX  around 19 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational pur