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Showing posts with the label stock trades

Course And Heading 05/11/20

Happy Mother's Day to all the wonderful women that made us who we are! Tides  are governed by many factors and emotions are certainly one of them.  Tides  flow toward optimism (sometimes unsustainable) and pessimism (sometimes unjustified). The last two weeks the  S&P  started simlarly at 2837 and 2830 and today the seas are at around 2930, a more optimistic  tide  by 100 points or 3.5% and only 25 points below the last  High Tide  recognized about 12 days ago on April 29. As you know, the higher the  tide , the less likely I am to sail as returns become more difficult to achieve. A 3.5% return in a week is a beautiful voyage and I did bring back some  boats  on Friday (one boat, $AUY 12 , was at sea for nearly 4 years), however, that does not mean I will call the  entire fleet  back to the harbor, it just means I have less exposure ( fewer boats sailing ) preparing for the inevitable  Low Tide  that is coming. If  Hurricane Corona  is over then: we are rising in a possible  H

Dead Calm

While sailing, there are days and periods of time during the day that are good timess to do NOTHING! This morning, with the exception of the Nasdaq , the seas are generally calm, the  Tide  action is neutral to slightly rising and it might be one of those days to just be patient and enjoy the day. However, the  VIX  remains elevated, the probability of a  storm  is high, and the weather  can change quickly so always be at the ready. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Rising Tide  ( S&P  at 2882) Rip Tide  ( VIX  around 32) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks incl

April 2020 Returns

As of the end of April, 2020: YTD Return: -6% 1 Year Return 16% 3 Year Return 6% average annual return 5 Year Return 10% average annual return 10 Year Return 12% average annual return Lifetime Return -18% (-1% average annual return - see $WCOM Trade #4 ) Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 2954) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 29 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisi

Course And Heading 05/04/20

Last week  started with the  S&P  at 2837 and beautiful weather that gave way to storms on Thursday and Friday, pulling the  S&P  down to 2830. If  Hurricane Corona  is over then we established a new  Low Tide  and it is safe to float some  boats . If  Hurricane Corona  is not over then: We are either in  High Tide  #5 or  Low Tide  #6 which could take us all the way down to the 2400 level over the next few months based on  Tide  research. Therefore, here is the strategy: Continue sailing  boats  already at sea (about 49% of the fleet ), hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  (up to 60% of the  fleet ) to depart around the 2500  Tide Level . Also planing a few short trips around 2725. Preparing some  boats  (up to the entire  fleet ) to depart around the 2200  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at t

Course And Heading 04/27/20

Hello everyone, once again I hope you and your family are safe, healthy and are overcoming the challenges of distancing. We start this week with the  S&P  at 2837, lower than it was in January of 2018. That marks over two years of no gains but after seeing the devastation caused by  Hurricane Corona , it is a positive sign we are not even lower than we are at this time. The  VIX  remains elevated but it felt like the seas (the market) calmed a little last week. That does not mean  Hurricane Corona  is over by almost any measurement as the previous hurricanes had several stretches of "calm" trading within them. Assuming  Hurricane Corona  is over then: If the  S&P  breaks 2900 we will call this a  High Tide If the  S&P  breaks 2727 we were still in a  Low Tide If  Hurricane Corona  is not over then: We are still in  High Tide  #5 and we are preparing for  Low Tide  #6 which could take us to the 2400 level and could take a few months to complete based

Course And Heading 04/20/20

It is hard to believe that this week marks one month since Hurricane Corona  possibly ended on March 23, 2020 at 33 days and  ↓  35%. It seems like yesterday when the markets had huge drops and quick bounces on a daily basis. That said, the  VIX  remains a  Rip Tide  and, based on the duration of the other two most recent  hurricanes , it is unlikely  Hurricane Corona  is over and we could be starting this week on Day 61, down 15% overall around  High Tide #5 . Therefore, here is the strategy: Continue sailing  boats  already at sea, hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  (up to 50% of the fleet) to depart around the 2500  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  (up to the entire fleet) to depart around the 2200  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 2875) Rip Tide  

Course And Heading 04/13/20

Hopeful that everyone is having a safe and healthy weekend during these difficult times. It is possible that  Hurricane Corona  was over on March 23, 2020 at 33 days and  ↓  35%. However, based on the duration of the other two  hurricanes , it is unlikely  Hurricane Corona  is over. Therefore, here is the strategy: Continue sailing  boats  already at sea, hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  (up to 50% of the fleet) to depart around the 2500  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  (up to the entire fleet) to depart around the 2200  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 2790) Rip Tide  ( VIX  around 41) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not enc

Course And Heading 04/06/20

Hurricanes  are difficult to forecast with wild storms and raging tides . to This week, we start day 47 of  Hurricane Corona  in  Low Tide #5  or we started  High Tide #5  on Friday or the  hurricane  was over on March 23rd with  Low Tide #4  @ 2295.56 ( ↓ 35% overall lasting 33 days.) Given the fact that both previous  hurricanes  lasted 930 days ↓ 51% and 512 days ↓ 58% before they exhausted, it is doubtful  Hurricane Corona  was over at 33 days and ↓ 35%. However, based on the number of  tides  we've already seen,  Hurricane Corona  is likely not going to last near as long as the other two  hurricanes . Therefore, here is the strategy: Calling some  boats  back to port around the 2700 -2900  Tide Level . Preparing some  boats  to depart around the 2000 - 2250  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Mid Tide  ( S&P  at 2600) Rip

March 2020 Returns

As of the end of March, 2020: YTD Return: -14% 1 Year Return 2% 3 Year Return 4% average annual return 5 Year Return 4% average annual return 10 Year Return 12% average annual return Lifetime Return -26% (-1.2% average annual return - see $WCOM Trade #4 ) Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Low Tide  ( S&P  at 2489) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  super high around 47 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any invest

Hurricane Low Tide #6

Today we established  Low Tides #5  @ 2486.22. It is possible  Hurricane Corona  ended on  Low Tides #4 , March 23rd @ 2191.86. If  Hurricane Corona  is not yet over, unfortunately, we might not have seen the worst yet. Enter  Low Tide #6 . Both previous  hurricanes  had huge  receding tides  that coincidentally happened on  Low Tide #6 : Hurricane  Dot-Com Bubble   Low Tide #6 , started on day 424 and produced a 28% drop over 122 days. Hurricane  Great Recession   Low Tide #6 , started on day 344 and produced a 33% drop over 21 days. To try to predict what a similar  Low Tide #6  would do during Hurricane Corona , let's compare the other   Low Tides #6  to their respective  Low Tides #4  (the most recent  Low Tide  during  Hurricane Corona ). Because  High Tides  #4 and #5 fall between  Low Tides #4  and  Low Tides #6 , the drop between  Low Tide #6  and  Low Tide #4  was not quite as bad as the the drop between  Low Tide #6  and  High Tide #5 : Hurricane  Dot-Com Bubbl

Hurricane Waves

Looking at the previous  hurricanes , tide ranges  seem to come in waves. A wave is defined as a series of  tides  rising and falling within a similar range allowing you to trade within a wave. However, you have to sail with caution as the dnd of wave which tends to be a sharp  Rip Tide  receding into the next wave (trading range). The  Dot-Com Bubble  had  18 tides  over 3 waves and the  Great Recession  had  26 tides  over 3 waves. Wave 3 - Trading Range Around 27% - 46% Below The Start Of The Hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble :  6 tides  lasted 335 days from 09/21/01 @945 ↓ 39% to 08/22/02 @965 ↓ 39% Great Recession :  14 tides  lasted 122 days from 10/10/08 @844 ↓ 46% to 02/09/09 @875 ↓ 44% Corona : ? Wave 2 - Trading Range Around 15% - 20% Below The Start Of The Hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble :  6 tides  lasted 216 days from 10/18/00 @1306 ↓ 16% to 05/21/01 @1316 ↓ 15% Great Recession :  8 tides  lasted 240 days from 01/23/08 @1270 ↓ 19% to 09/19/08 @1264 ↓ 20% Corona : 1

High Tide #4 Head Fake

Just when it looked like  High Tide #4  was receding to begin  Low Tide #5 , the  Tide  began to rise again and  High Tide #4  lived on, now up 21% from  Low Tide #4 . Is it common for a  High Tide  to rise over 19% during a  hurricane ? Well, both the  Dot-Com Bubble  and the  Great Recession  each had 3  High Tides  rise over 19%. Same Course And Heading as yesterday: Preparing some  boats  to depart around the 2000 - 2200  Tide Level . Keep cruising (hold) existing positions (even though the  hurricane  is likely not over, the market could rebound sharply and calling these boats in now would miss the bounce.) No  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : High Tide  ( S&P  at 2630) Rip Tide  ( VIX  around 51) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all

Course And Heading 03/30/20

It is difficult to discuss  Hurricane Corona  as a financial crises when people are dying as a result of the horrible Coronavirus disease COVID-19. My heart goes out to all who have become sick or have died and everyone has been impacted by this terrible disease. We need to fight hard by social distancing to minimize the number of deaths. It is truly a health crises and the worst is yet to come. This week, we either start day 40 of  Hurricane Corona  with: We are still rising in  High Tide #4 , and/or The  hurricane  is over with  Low Tide #4  @ 2295.56, or Low Tide #5  (possibly established Friday @ 2520) Given the fact that both previous  hurricanes  lasted 930 and 512 days before they exhausted, it is likely doubtful that  Hurricane Corona  is over. Therefore, here is the strategy: Preparing some  boats  to depart around the 2000 - 2200  Tide Level . Keep cruising (hold) existing positions (even though the  hurricane  is likely not over, the market could rebound sharply

Course And Heading 03/23/20

A new  Low Tide ,  Hurricane Corona   Low Tide #4  has been established at 2295.56 down 7%. The averge  Low Tide  during a  hurricane  recedes between 16% and 18% so  Low Tide #4  will possibly recede further. We've now seen 7  Tides  in the first 30 days of   Hurricane Corona . It took both previous hurricanes  272 and 278 days to experience 7  Tides . It seems like forever ago but it was only 1 week ago when we set Course And Heading 03/16/22  at 2708, 400 points higher than we are today. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona A few dinghies  were splashed last week and all but one were called back to port after very short voyages. The rest of the  fleet  that has been moored at the dock, stayed at the dock and the sailing  fleet  continues to ride out the storms . Preparing some  boats  to depart around the 2050 Tide Level . Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to  port  (sell) existing positions on strength. No  short positions  planned. Fair winds and following

Is That A Dinghy?

When I refer to a " boat ", I am refering to a stock symbol position. For example, let's say I am favorable to the stock $KHC. I might sail (buy) "$KHC I" at a certain price and then sail (buy) "$KCH II" at another price and "$KHC III" at yet another price. In this case, I have 3  boats  sailing, all using the symbol $KHC. The  boats  might be all the same size or different sizes. In addition to the symbol selection , there is also a decision to make about the size of the  boat . The type of " boat " has very little to do with the performance of the boat, rather it is the portion it takes up of the total dollars available in my  fleet . There are dinghys, inflatable boats, jon boats, deckboats, flats boats, powerboats, house boats,  yachts, blue water boats, cargo ships, aircraft carriers and huge passenger ships (I call these huge boats " Titanics ") and many more. For the purposes of 10KTrades , the larger the single inv

Course And Heading 03/16/20

A  High Tide  has been established at 2708.47 by a whipsaw 10% move in 1 day. A few boats, dinghies (small investments), were sailed last week and were called back in with the  High Tide  rushing in. The rest of the  fleet  that has been moored at the dock, stayed at the dock last week and the sailing  fleet  got some calm water to end the week. Hurricane Corona Watch: First Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↓ 14% over 21 days Great Recession  ↓ 11% over 46 days Corona : ↓ 16% over 9 days First High Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 11% over 12 days Great Recession  ↑ 8% over 15 days Corona : ↑ 10% over 4 days Second Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↓ 8% over 23 days Great Recession  ↓ 17% over 43 days Corona : ↓ 21% over 9 days Second High Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 12% over 100 days Great Recession  ↑ 10% over 9 days Corona : ↑ 10% over 1 day (so far) Aside from the speed of the first 2  Corona   tid

Hurricane Corona

As you know, 10KTrades uses sailing as a metaphor for investing using terms like boats, fleet, tides, storms and more. A " Storm " is particularly bad weather often causing a  Low Tide  and possibly even a  Rip Tide .  Storms  happen occasionally as a result of bad weather such as bad economic or political news. A Hurricane is a violent  storm  of large magnitude and often has several " storm s within the  storm ". The entire world is now hearing about Hurricane Corona. Hurricane Corona is a financial  storm  with a devastating beginning never seen before. To put it into perspective, let's start to compare Hurricane Corona (20-?) to our last two hurricanes: Hurricane Great Recession  (07-09) and Hurricane Dot-Com Bubble  (00-02). Hurricane  Dot-Com Bubble  (00-02) began March 24, 2000 at 1552.87 and lasted 930 days until October 10, 2002 dropping 51% to 768.63. Hurricane  Great Recession  (07-09) began October 11, 2007 at 1576.09 and lasted 512 days unt

Course And Heading 03/09/20

Hello Hurricane Corona. Although it has only been 19 days, it seems forever ago since the  Record King High Tide  crested at 3394 on February 19th. The  fleet  that is moored at the dock, stayed at the dock last week and the sailing  fleet  continued to get battered by a crazy roller coaster ride named Hurricane Corona. This week's weather remains a guessing game. It looks likely the  Tide  will pull all the way back to the October 4th level of 2856 which was recently matched on February 28, 2020. If we are still in a  Low Tide  and we break through, then we possibly sail all the way down to around 2500. Same as last week: Preparing some  boats  to depart around the 2500  Tide Level . Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to  port  (sell) existing positions to the 3100  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : Mid Tide  ( S&P  at 2902) Rip Tide  ( VIX  around 41.94) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Lear

Course And Heading 03/02/20

Last week was quite a week in the markets. The  Record King High Tide  crested at 3394 on February 19th rising a whopping 19% since the  Low Tide  observed on October 4th. Some of the  fleet  set sail last week on the  Low Tide  confirmation around 3136 and took a beating as the powerful storm pulled the  Tide  all the way back to the October 4th level of 2856. This week remains a guessing game as to which scenario unfolds. If Friday marked a  Low Tide  of 2856 then maybe we can sail up to around 3100. If not, we must be prepared to weather a storm that could do even further damage to our  boats . Preparing  boats  to depart around the 2500 Tide Level . Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to  port  (sell) existing positions to the 3100  Tide Level . No  short positions  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Never panic. Trading Tide Levels : Low Tide  ( S&P  at 2954) Rip Tide  ( VIX  around 40 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT F

Course And Heading 11/25/19

Three of the last four  High Tides  have expanded around 54 days. This  Record King High Tide  is now 51 days old and has risen 10% since the last  Low Tide  on October 4th. The  fleet  is ready to sail upon the next  Low Tide  confirmation. Preparing  boats  to depart (waiting to establish long positions). Keep cruising (hold) and/or return to  port  (sell) existing cruises (positions). No  short positions  planned although that might not be a terrible idea. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels : King High Tide  ( S&P  at 3132) Neap Tide  ( VIX  around 12) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter            Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losin