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Showing posts with the label stock trading

Hurricane Election?

With the election only one week away, the  winds  have increased and sailing is becoming more challenging. But, as you know from reading 10KTrades , we like to set sail during bad weather and generally return to port when the weather has been good. We are watching for a couple of key  S&P   low tide levels: September 24  low tide  of 3209 June 29  low tide  of 3000 And if it really gets nasty: March 23  low tide  of 2192 Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Falling Tide  ( S&P  around 3390) Rip Tide  (increasing winds,  VIX  around 33 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is re

Conditional Trade Orders

Are you sure you want to deal with the emotions associated with the risk of losing your money? Do you have the right mindset to make sure trading is enjoyable? A great tool to help manage  emotions  is the use of "conditional orders". A conditional order is an order that uses predetermined criteria to trigger an action. Here's an example of a "conditional order" that executed today: If the bid of $STLD is greater or equal to $30.49, sell  $STLD  at limit $30.50. This "conditional order" was created on Monday, September 14 and it triggered on Tuesday, September 15. There are a couple of things I like about this strategy: You don't have to openly "advertise" your plans to the public. You may already be wondering why not just place a sell order for  $STLD  at limit of $30.50? I prefer not to "show my hand" until I am ready to play my hand and I also like the power of putting some thought into the if/then conditions. Conditional

Low Tide Watch

The tides go up and the tides go down. We recently observed a record-setting 65 day King Tide that rose 20% between June 29 and September 2. That's a heck of a run and it was fun to watch. I like to float boats at  Low Tide  and let the boats rise with the  Tide . Here are some Tide  level boat launch points: 3300 interested but not excited 3000 very interested If you choose to launch, take caution, the winds ( VIX ) is high around 30 knots. I'll be patiently waiting and watching the weather. With the election coming soon, we can call this " hurricane season " and the last thing you want to do is launch and get caught in a  hurricane . Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Low Tide  ( S&P  around 3339) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 30 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or

Create Watch Lists

Creating Watch Lists in whatever brokerage account you are using and selecting the " boats " (stock symbols) to include in your Watch Lists are the first steps in  Fleet Management . AVOID LOSING YOUR ENTIRE INVESTMENT! Stay diversified by investing in a fleet of stocks rather than risk everything on one stock. That is why Watch Lists are important so you can observe and study stocks from various industries at the same time. Here's an example Watch List created in TD Ameritrade > My Account > Create a new watch list > Add symbol(s) > Name and Save Your Watch List Example: AAPL, AMZN, CAT, $VIX.X, F, GOOGL, KHC, MU, STLD, T, USB Here's another Watch List example: FXAIX, RFHTX, VIGIX, VIIIX And another: AAPL, AMD, AMZN, BABA, BBBY, BRK.B, BX, BXS, C, CAT, CRM, CSCO,  CTL, DE, DELL, DIS, DKGN, F, FB, FDX, GE, GM, GOOGL, GSS, GT, GTN, HD, JBLU,  JCI, JD, JNJ, KHC, LOW, LSI, LUV, MA, MAT, MGM, MRVL, MSFT, MU, NKE, NVDA, ORCL, PFPT, RAD, RNG, SANM, SBUX, SCHW,

Hurricane Corona Officially Ended March 23rd

The  Fourth Low Tide  reached on March 23, 2020 had me asking "WAS THIS THE END?" as we violently fell from 3394 to 2192 in just 33 days. Today, with the  S&P  rising over 3394 intraday, the suspicion is now officially confirmed:  Hurricane Corona  ended on March 23, 2020. Dot-Com Bubble : lasted 512 days & took 1,496 days for the  S&P  to reach the pre-hurricane  high Great Recession : lasted 930 days & took 1,817 days for the  S&P  to reach the  pre-hurricane  high Corona : lasted 33 days & took 148 days for the  S&P  to reach the  pre-hurricane  high Here is a summary of the  Tide  action during  Hurricane Corona  relative to the other two  hurricanes : Fourth Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble   ↓  13% over 45 days (day 272,  ↓  19% overall) Great Recession   ↓  17% over 57 days (day 278,  ↓  24% overall) Corona :  ↓  11% over 4 days (day 33),  ↓  35% overall Third High Tide  of each  hurricane : Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 10% over 19 days (day

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/29/20

Let's check the accuracy of last week's Log: Projected Range:  3005 - 3191  Actual Range:  3005 - 3155 This week we start at 3009 and expect a range between 2920 - 3078 during this short week (the seas are closed Friday July 3). Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch  boats  at or below the 3000 level. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea to the 3200 - 3300 level. There are no  short sailings  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Low Tide  ( S&P  around 3009) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 35 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, adv

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/22/20

After sailing through a violent storm that dropped the seas by  ↓  249 points or  ↓  7% the week before, last week proved to be fairly benign. We start this week at 3098 expecting the seas to find a range between 3005 and 3191 so we will be in a holding pattern until we close in on one of the ends of the range. Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch  boats  at or below the 3000 level. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea to the 3200 - 3300 level. There are no  short sailings  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Mid Tide  ( S&P  around 3098) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 35 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carrie

Start Each Sail With The Return In Mind

There are five (5) main considerations to sail a boat: The date you set sail/depart (buy). The boat you choose to set sail with. The price you pay for the boat. The date you return (sell) the boat. The price you sell the boat for. There have been many times I have left the dock and then, I'll do some research only to realize I wish I would have kept that boat at the dock! When you buy a boat, buy it with the end in mind . Take a look at this example: Let's say a boat is selling for $40 per share and your research shows it might be a good time to buy. Let's say you want to make 10% so you would like to return that boat to the dock at $44. Let's say you don't want to lose more than 10% so you will need to return that boat to the dock if it hits $36. You were hoping to sail less than a month, but, after you set sail, you start looking at your charts and you see it's been a while since this boat sold for $44. Furthermore, based on the sea conditions, you think it mi

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/15/20

Last Monday, after sailing in beautiful weather for 25 days,  ↑  466 points or  ↑  17%, the  King High Tide  finally crested at 3233. I had been preparing for the inevitable storm, calling boats back to the dock during the final sunny days of the  tide , with as much as 72% of the fleet moored at the dock. Then came a violent storm that dropped the seas by  ↓  249 points or  ↓  7%. Normally,  ↓  7% would be a strong signal to set  sail , but because of hurricane corona ,  high winds  and  ↑  17% over 25 days, the violent destruction remains firmly in my mind. Expecting the seas this week in a range between 2950 and 3133 and over the next 30 days the seas could drop to 2750. Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch  boats  below the 3000 level. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea. There are no  short sailings  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Low Tide  ( S&P  around 3041) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 36 knots) S

Stock Market Tide Update

The recent  King High Tide  finally crested at 3233 on June 8, rising  ↑  17% over 25 days and, at the time it crested, the seas had risen  ↑  48% since March 23. There has now been 8  King High Tides  since January 1, 2016 and those tides rose between  ↑  15% and  ↑  24%. The  Low Tides  that followed each  King High Tide  averaged  ↓  5% and lasted 13 days on average.  Today is day 3 of this  Low Tide  and we are  ↓  7%. Updated Captain's Boat Log: Possibly, and very cautiously, float some  boats  below the 3100 level.  VIX  is above 30 knots. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea (about 28% of the  fleet ), and will continue calling back more  boats  to port around the 3200  Tide Level . There are no  short positions  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  around 3100) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 30 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informati

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/08/20

The current  King High Tide  has risen to 3211. This  tide  has risen  ↑  16% over 22 days and the seas have risen  ↑  47% since March 23, 2020. There have been 7  King High Tides  since January 1, 2016 and those tides rose between  ↑  15% and  ↑  24%. There is more room for this tide to rise and  ↑  24% would put the  S&P  at a record high of 3431. With the recent beautiful sailing conditions (despite the high winds), we remain guarded against the inevitable storm. Boats were called back to port last week and now 28% of the fleet remains at sea. Captain's Boat Log: No  new cruises  planned at the current tide level. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea. There are no  short sailings  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 3194) Rip Tide  (high winds,  VIX  around 24 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information pro

Stock Market Tide Update

The current  King High Tide  inched higher today to 3185. This  tide  has risen  ↑  15% over 22 days and the seas have risen  ↑  45% over the last 74 days. This is the 27th  High Tide  since January 1, 2016. The average  tide  over that period rose 11% and lasted 42 days. There have been 7  King High Tides  over that period and they rose between ↑ 15% and ↑ 24%. No new entries in this week's Captain's Boat Log: No  new cruises  planned. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea (about 38% of the  fleet ), and will call back some  boats  to port around the 3100 to 3200  Tide Level . There are no  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 3072) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 28 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass a

AUY Trade #91

$AUY Trade #91 I remember seeing Jim Cramer, on the television show Mad Money, yelling "YAMANA!!" at the TV during the "lightning round". That's when I began trading YAMANA Gold $AUY. $AUY, trade #91, isn't over yet, I have 10 boats sailing, but I've waited and waited for this stock to return to it's "glory hole" (those of you who have seen the show "Gold Rush" will understand). I've been sailing these 10 $AUY boats since September 2014 (yep, those boats should have been called back in a long time ago but I wasn't using a  STOP-LOSS  at the time). I thought sailing a gold mining boat would be a hedge if there was an overall pullback in the stock market. I guess I was right as $AUY is now over $5 per share after hitting a low of $1.78 last summer. That is a heck of a return, but... timing is everything and I started sailing it way to early! Here are three takeaways from $AUY Trade #91: First, someday I'll devote a

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/01/20

Last Thursday could have marked the peak of a  High Tide  at 3068.67. This  tide  has risen 11% and lasted 14 days and is the 23rd  High Tide  since January 1, 2018. The average  tide  over that period rose 10% and the  King High Tides  rose between ↑ 17% and ↑ 24% so there is more room for this  tide  to rise but, at ↑ 11%, we should also be preparing for storms. Therefore, here is the Captain's Boat Log entry: No  new cruises  planned. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea (about 38% of the  fleet ), and will call back some  boats  to port around the 3100 to 3200  Tide Level . There are no  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 3044) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 28 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all po

Is The Stock Market Hurricane Over?

It sure feels like the seas have calmed and our first hurricane in over 10 years is over. However, before we "float all boats" going all in on this ocean, let's take a look at a these two key points from previous hurricanes: 1. Does being up 38% from the bottom, 2192 on March 23, 2020, mean that the hurricane is over? As stated earlier, both previous hurricanes had multiple  High Tide moves  greater than 20%. The  Tide  we are either in or just ended is up 23%. This is right in line with 5  tides  in the previous hurricanes that were up 22%, 23%, 24% (twice) and 25%. 2. Does being only down 10% since 3394, the start of the hurricane on February 28, 2020, mean that the hurricane is over? At the current 3036 level, the  S&P  is down 10% since the start of the hurricane (98 days before today). The  Great Recession  was down only 9% at the 221 day mark and the  Dot-Com Bubble  was also down 11% on day 313. Deciding when to sail (buy) is a challenge but hopefully history h

Hurricane Corona Tide Watch

Hurricane Corona   Tide  comparisons so far (as of May 27, 2020): Fifth High Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 22% over 60 days (day 424, ↓ 15% overall) Great Recession  ↑ 12% over 1 day (day 344, ↓ 20% overall) Corona : ↑ 24% over 55 days (day 97, ↓  10% overall) ACTIVE NOW? Fifth Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble   ↓ 22% over 41 days (day 364, ↓ 30% overall) Great Recession   ↓ 14% over 38 days (day 343, ↓ 28% overall) Corona : ↓ 7% over 1 days (day 42, ↓ 27% overall) Fourth High Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 10% over 41 days (day 313, ↓ 11% overall) Great Recession  ↑ 9% over 27 days (day 305, ↓ 17% overall) Corona : ↑ 21% over 8 days (day 41, ↓ 22% overall) Fourth Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble   ↓ 13% over 45 days (day 272,  ↓  19% overall) Great Recession   ↓ 17% over 57 days (day 278,  ↓  24% overall) Corona : ↓ 11% over 4 days (day 33,  ↓  35% overall) WAS THIS THE END? Third High Tide  o

Stock Market Course And Heading 05/25/20

Today we honor the heroes who died protecting our freedom. Each week feels like we are moving further away from  Hurricane Corona  and we are now up 22% since the April 1  Low Tide  of 2447. However, both previous hurricanes had multiple  High Tide moves  greater than 20% so we might not be out of the  hurricane  yet. If  Hurricane Corona  is over then: we could be rising again in a possible  High Tide  and we could rise to around the 3000  level . A possible 150 point range for the week is 2875 - 3030. If  Hurricane Corona  is not over then: we are still either in  High Tide  #5 and we could rise to around the 3000  level  or we are about to start  Low Tide  #6 which could take us all the way down to the 2400 level over the next few months based on  Tide  research. Therefore, here is the Captain's Log entry: No  new positions  planned. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea (about 43% of the  fleet  is sailing), hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100  Tide Level

Stock Market Course And Heading 05/18/20

Last week had some tough to read tide  movement as we were on the brink of reaching a High Tide  and then a squall developed dropping the  S&P  179 points to 2767. The sea  has been commonly moving about 150 points between the high and the low each calendar week (a reflection of the high  VIX .) The 179 point squall last week, however, was a very abrupt and concentrated move. During the squall, we launched a few small boats . If  Hurricane Corona  is over then: we could be rising again in a possible  High Tide  and it could be safe (although the winds remain dangerous ) to float some  boats  for short trips as we could rise to around the 3000  level . A possible 150 point range for the week is 2800 - 2950.  If  Hurricane Corona  is not over then: we are still either in  High Tide  #5 or  Low Tide  #6 which could take us all the way down to the 2400 level over the next few months based on  Tide  research. Therefore, here is the Captain's Log entry: Continue sailing  boats  alrea

Tricky Tides

We sail according to the  tides . We prefer to launch during stormy weather ( falling tides ) knowing we might get battered around a little at first but hopeful the storm is almost over so we can enjoy the rest of our voyage. Today is a classic example of the importance of  discipline and patience  and sticking to the plan . On Monday, May 4, 2020, if we are not still in  Hurricane Corona , we established a  Low Tide  at 2797.85. Over the last 11 days we've been rising toward the 3000 level, the weather has been good and the  Tide  rose to 2945.82, not quite a  High Tide , but it looked like a sure thing. Then, boom, a storm suddenly erupted and pulled the seas all the way down to the 2767 level. We had been in a  Low Tide  the entire time! A couple of days ago, we could have launched some boats around 2900, thinking we were in a fairly young, rising  High Tide , hoping to take short cruises up to around 2950 - 3000. But, as part of the strategy to only launch during storms or in

Boats And Fleet Management

Everyone has their own personality and preferences. Some like to feel the exhilarating g-force from the sharp acceleration of a jet ski and others like to slowly cruise around like on a pontoon, relaxing, perhaps even barbecuing or fishing along the way. My personality outside of trading (for the most part), has been one of a thrill seeker. I love the reward of taking on risk. Early in my sailing (trading) career, I took the same approach, seeking out high-flying boats and ignoring the diversity of having a fleet . I put everything into one  boat  that sunk. As you can guess, this was an expensive approach and it was absolutely no fun either! Today, I have about 73  boats , in several Watch Lists , in my  fleet .  Click here to read about boat selection from July 22, 2019  (Interestingly we were in a  High Tide  at the time of that post with the S&P  sitting near an all-time high (at the time) of 2976. One of the important questions you should ask yourself is: how much time can I