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Stock Market Course And Heading 06/29/20

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Let's check the accuracy of last week's Log:
Projected Range: 3005 - 3191 Actual Range: 3005 - 3155
This week we start at 3009 and expect a range between 2920 - 3078 during this short week (the seas are closed Friday July 3).
Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch boats at or below the 3000 level.Continue sailing boats already at sea to the 3200 - 3300 level.There are no short sailings planned. Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Low Tide (S&P around 3009)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 35 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated or endorsed including a…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Course And Heading 06/22/20

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After sailing through a violent storm that dropped the seas by ↓ 249 points or ↓ 7% the week before, last week proved to be fairly benign.
We start this week at 3098 expecting the seas to find a range between 3005 and 3191 so we will be in a holding pattern until we close in on one of the ends of the range.
Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch boats at or below the 3000 level.Continue sailing boats already at sea to the 3200 - 3300 level.There are no short sailings planned. Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Mid Tide (S&P around 3098)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 35 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your …
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Start Each Sail With The Return To The Dock In Mind

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There are five (5) main considerations to sail a boat: The boat you choose to set sail with.The price you pay for the boat.The date you set sail/depart (buy).The date you return (sell) the boat.The price you sell the boat for. There have been many times I have left the dock and then, while sailing, I'll do math to determine when to return to the dock only to realize I wish I would have stayed at the dock!
When you buy a boat, buy it with the end in mind.
Take a look at this example: Let's say a boat is selling for $40 per share and your research shows it might be a good time to buy.Let's say you want to make 10% so you would like to return that boat to the dock at $44.Let's say you don't want to lose more than 10% so you will need to return that boat to the dock if it hits $36.You were hoping to sail less than a month, but, after you set sail, you start looking at your charts and you see it's been a while since this boat sold for $44. Furthermore, based on the sea c…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Course And Heading 06/15/20

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Last Monday, after sailing in beautiful weather for 25 days, ↑ 466 points or ↑ 17%, the King High Tide finally crested at 3233. I had been preparing for the inevitable storm, calling boats back to the dock during the final sunny days of the tide, with as much as 72% of the fleet moored at the dock.
Then came a violent storm that dropped the seas by ↓ 249 points or ↓ 7%. Normally, ↓ 7% would be a strong signal to set sail, but because of hurricane corona, high winds and ↑ 17% over 25 days, the violent destruction remains firmly in my mind.
Expecting the seas this week in a range between 2950 and 3133 and over the next 30 days the seas could drop to 2750.
Captain's Boat Log: Cautiously launch boats below the 3000 level.Continue sailing boats already at sea.There are no short sailings planned.Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Low Tide (S&P around 3041)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 36 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About …
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Tide Update

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The recent King High Tide finally crested at 3233 on June 8, rising ↑ 17% over 25 days and, at the time it crested, the seas had risen ↑ 48% since March 23.
There has now been 8 King High Tides since January 1, 2016 and those tides rose between ↑ 15% and ↑ 24%.
The Low Tides that followed each King High Tide averaged ↓ 5% and lasted 13 days on average.  Today is day 3 of this Low Tide and we are ↓ 7%.
Updated Captain's Boat Log: Possibly, and very cautiously, float some boats below the 3100 level. VIX is above 30 knots.Continue sailing boats already at sea (about 28% of the fleet), and will continue calling back more boats to port around the 3200 Tide Level.There are no short positions planned.Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P around 3100)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 30 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not …
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Course And Heading 06/08/20

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The current King High Tide has risen to 3211. This tide has risen ↑ 16% over 22 days and the seas have risen ↑ 47% since March 23, 2020.
There have been 7 King High Tides since January 1, 2016 and those tides rose between ↑ 15% and ↑ 24%. There is more room for this tide to rise and ↑ 24% would put the S&P at a record high of 3431.
With the recent beautiful sailing conditions (despite the high winds), we remain guarded against the inevitable storm. Boats were called back to port last week and now 28% of the fleet remains at sea.
Captain's Boat Log: No new cruises planned at the current tide level.Continue sailing boats already at sea.There are no short sailings planned.Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P at 3194)Rip Tide (high winds, VIX around 24 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or prob…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Tide Update

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The current King High Tide inched higher today to 3185. This tide has risen ↑ 15% over 22 days and the seas have risen ↑ 45% over the last 74 days.
This is the 27th High Tide since January 1, 2016. The average tide over that period rose 11% and lasted 42 days.There have been 7 King High Tides over that period and they rose between ↑ 15% and ↑ 24%. No new entries in this week's Captain's Boat Log: No new cruises planned.Continue sailing boats already at sea (about 38% of the fleet), and will call back some boats to port around the 3100 to 3200 Tide Level.There are no short positions planned.Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P at 3072)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 28 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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AUY Trade #91

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$AUY Trade #91

I remember seeing Jim Cramer, on the television show Mad Money, yelling "YAMANA!!" at the TV during the "lightning round". That's when I began trading YAMANA Gold $AUY.

$AUY, trade #91, isn't over yet, I have 10 boats sailing, but I've waited and waited for this stock to return to it's "glory hole" (those of you who have seen the show "Gold Rush" will understand). I've been sailing these 10 $AUY boats since September 2014 (yep, those boats should have been called back in a long time ago but I wasn't using a STOP-LOSS at the time).
I thought sailing a gold mining boat would be a hedge if there was an overall pullback in the stock market. I guess I was right as $AUY is now over $5 per share after hitting a low of $1.78 last summer. That is a heck of a return, but... timing is everything and I started sailing it way to early!

Here are three takeaways from $AUY Trade #91: First, someday I'll devote a post to d…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Course And Heading 06/01/20

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Last Thursday could have marked the peak of a High Tide at 3068.67. This tide has risen 11% and lasted 14 days and is the 23rd High Tide since January 1, 2018. The average tide over that period rose 10% and the King High Tides rose between ↑ 17% and ↑ 24% so there is more room for this tide to rise but, at ↑ 11%, we should also be preparing for storms.
Therefore, here is the Captain's Boat Log entry:No new cruises planned.Continue sailing boats already at sea (about 38% of the fleet), and will call back some boats to port around the 3100 to 3200 Tide Level.There are no short positions planned.Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P at 3044)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 28 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing post…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Is The Stock Market Hurricane Over?

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It sure feels like the seas have calmed and our first hurricane in over 10 years is over. However, before we "float all boats" going all in on this ocean, let's take a look at a these two key points from previous hurricanes:
1. Does being up 38% from the bottom, 2192 on March 23, 2020, mean that the hurricane is over? As stated earlier, both previous hurricanes had multiple High Tide moves greater than 20%. The Tide we are either in or just ended is up 23%. This is right in line with 5 tides in the previous hurricanes that were up 22%, 23%, 24% (twice) and 25%.2. Does being only down 10% since 3394, the start of the hurricane on February 28, 2020, mean that the hurricane is over?
At the current 3036 level, the S&P is down 10% since the start of the hurricane (98 days before today). The Great Recession was down only 9% at the 221 day mark and the Dot-Com Bubble was also down 11% on day 313. Deciding when to sail (buy) is a challenge but hopefully history helps us manage o…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Hurricane Corona Tide Watch

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Hurricane CoronaTide comparisons so far (as of May 27, 2020):Fifth High Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↑ 22% over 60 days (day 424, ↓ 15% overall)Great Recession ↑ 12% over 1 day (day 344, ↓ 20% overall)Corona: ↑ 24% over 55 days (day 97, ↓ 10% overall) ACTIVE NOW?Fifth Low Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble↓ 22% over 41 days (day 364, ↓ 30% overall)Great Recession↓ 14% over 38 days (day 343, ↓ 28% overall)Corona: ↓ 7% over 1 days (day 42, ↓ 27% overall)Fourth High Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↑ 10% over 41 days (day 313, ↓ 11% overall)Great Recession ↑ 9% over 27 days (day 305, ↓ 17% overall)Corona: ↑ 21% over 8 days (day 41, ↓ 22% overall)Fourth Low Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble↓ 13% over 45 days (day 272, ↓ 19% overall)Great Recession↓ 17% over 57 days (day 278, ↓ 24% overall)Corona: ↓ 11% over 4 days (day 33, ↓ 35% overall) WAS THIS THE END?Third High Tide of each hurricane:Dot-Com Bubble ↑ 10% over 19 days (day 227 of the hurricane)Great Recession ↑ 15%…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Stock Market Course And Heading 05/25/20

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Today we honor the heroes who died protecting our freedom.
Each week feels like we are moving further away from Hurricane Corona and we are now up 22% since the April 1 Low Tide of 2447. However, both previous hurricanes had multiple High Tide moves greater than 20% so we might not be out of the hurricane yet.
If Hurricane Corona is over then: we could be rising again in a possible High Tide and we could rise to around the 3000 level. A possible 150 point range for the week is 2875 - 3030.
If Hurricane Corona is not over then: we are still either in High Tide #5 and we could rise to around the 3000 level or we are about to start Low Tide #6 which could take us all the way down to the 2400 level over the next few months based on Tide research.
Therefore, here is the Captain's Log entry:No new positions planned. Continue sailing boats already at sea (about 43% of the fleet is sailing), hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100 Tide Level. Preparing some boats (up to 60% o…
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Stock Market Course And Heading 05/18/20

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Last week had some tough to read tide movement as we were on the brink of reaching a High Tide and then a squall developed dropping the S&P 179 points to 2767. The sea has been commonly moving about 150 points between the high and the low each calendar week (a reflection of the high VIX.) The 179 point squall last week, however, was a very abrupt and concentrated move. During the squall, we launched a few small boats.
If Hurricane Corona is over then: we could be rising again in a possible High Tide and it could be safe (although the winds remain dangerous) to float some boats for short trips as we could rise to around the 3000 level. A possible 150 point range for the week is 2800 - 2950. 
If Hurricane Corona is not over then: we are still either in High Tide #5 or Low Tide #6 which could take us all the way down to the 2400 level over the next few months based on Tide research.
Therefore, here is the Captain's Log entry:Continue sailing boats already at sea (about 48% of the fl…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Tricky Tides

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We sail according to the tides. We prefer to launch during stormy weather (falling tides) knowing we might get battered around a little at first but hopeful the storm is almost over so we can enjoy the rest of our voyage.
Today is a classic example of the importance of discipline and patience and sticking to the plan. On Monday, May 4, 2020, if we are not still in Hurricane Corona, we established a Low Tide at 2797.85.Over the last 11 days we've been rising toward the 3000 level, the weather has been good and the Tide rose to 2945.82, not quite a High Tide, but it looked like a sure thing.Then, boom, a storm suddenly erupted and pulled the seas all the way down to the 2767 level.We had been in a Low Tide the entire time!
A couple of days ago, we could have launched some boats around 2900, thinking we were in a fairly young, rising High Tide, hoping to take short cruises up to around 2950 - 3000. But, as part of the strategy to only launch during storms or in receding tides, we held o…
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Boats And Fleet Management

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Everyone has their own personality and preferences. Some like to feel exhilarating g-force from the sharp acceleration of a jet ski and others like to slowly cruise around on a pontoon, relaxing, perhaps even barbecuing or fishing along the way.
My personality outside of trading (for the most part), has been one of a thrill seeker. I love the reward of taking on risk. Early in my sailing (trading) career, I took the same approach, seeking out high-flying boats and ignoring the diversity of having a fleet. I put everything into one boat that sunk. As you can guess, this was an expensive approach and it was absolutely no fun either!
Today, I have about 73 boats in my fleet. Click here to read about boat selection from July 22, 2019 (Interestingly we were in a High Tide at the time of that post with the S&P sitting near an all-time high (at the time) of 2976.
One of the important questions you should ask yourself is: how much time can I dedicate to managing my fleet? I can tell you 73 b…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Course And Heading 05/11/20

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Happy Mother's Day to all the wonderful women that made us who we are!
Tides are governed by many factors and emotions are certainly one of them. Tides flow toward optimism (sometimes unsustainable) and pessimism (sometimes unjustified). The last two weeks the S&P started simlarly at 2837 and 2830 and today the seas are at around 2930, a more optimistic tide by 100 points or 3.5% and only 25 points below the last High Tide recognized about 12 days ago on April 29.
As you know, the higher the tide, the less likely I am to sail as returns become more difficult to achieve. A 3.5% return in a week is a beautiful voyage and I did bring back some boats on Friday (one boat, $AUY 12, was at sea for nearly 4 years), however, that does not mean I will call the entire fleet back to the harbor, it just means I have less exposure (fewer boats sailing) preparing for the inevitable Low Tide that is coming.
If Hurricane Corona is over then: we are rising in a possible High Tide and it could be s…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Dead Calm

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While sailing, there are days and periods of time during the day that are good timess to do NOTHING!
This morning, with the exception of the Nasdaq, the seas are generally calm, the Tide action is neutral to slightly rising and it might be one of those days to just be patient and enjoy the day.
However, the VIX remains elevated, the probability of a storm is high, and the weather can change quickly so always be at the ready.
Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Rising Tide (S&P at 2882)Rip Tide (VIX around 32)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire in…
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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April 2020 Returns

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As of the end of April, 2020:
YTD Return: -6%1 Year Return 16%3 Year Return 6% average annual return5 Year Return 10% average annual return10 Year Return 12% average annual returnLifetime Return -18% (-1% average annual return - see $WCOM Trade #4)Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
High Tide (S&P at 2954)Rip Tide (dangerous winds, VIX around 29 knots)Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to …
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Course And Heading 05/04/20

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Last week started with the S&P at 2837 and beautiful weather that gave way to storms on Thursday and Friday, pulling the S&P down to 2830.

If Hurricane Corona is over then we established a new Low Tide and it is safe to float some boats.
If Hurricane Corona is not over then:
We are either in High Tide #5 or Low Tide #6 which could take us all the way down to the 2400 level over the next few months based on Tide research. Therefore, here is the strategy: Continue sailing boats already at sea (about 49% of the fleet), hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100 Tide Level.Preparing some boats (up to 60% of the fleet) to depart around the 2500 Tide Level. Also planing a few short trips around 2725.Preparing some boats (up to the entire fleet) to depart around the 2200 Tide Level.No short positions planned.Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels (at the time of the post):
Lowering Tide (S&P at 2830)Rip Tide (VIX …
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Location: Omaha, NE, USA
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Course And Heading 04/27/20

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Hello everyone, once again I hope you and your family are safe, healthy and are overcoming the challenges of distancing.

We start this week with the S&P at 2837, lower than it was in January of 2018. That marks over two years of no gains but after seeing the devastation caused by Hurricane Corona, it is a positive sign we are not even lower than we are at this time.

The VIX remains elevated but it felt like the seas (the market) calmed a little last week. That does not mean Hurricane Corona is over by almost any measurement as the previous hurricanes had several stretches of "calm" trading within them.

Assuming Hurricane Corona is over then:
If the S&P breaks 2900 we will call this a High TideIf the S&P breaks 2727 we were still in a Low Tide If Hurricane Corona is not over then:
We are still in High Tide #5 and we are preparing for Low Tide #6 which could take us to the 2400 level and could take a few months to complete based on Tide research. Therefore, here is t…
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