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Course And Heading 09/30/19

The Tide is very difficult to read right now, it's a confused sea. The recent King High Tide peaked at 3020.74 on September 12. At that time the Tide had risen for 37 days and 7%.

Today marks 55 days since the last Low Tide and 18 days since the High Tide reached it's high mark. If we are in a Low Tide we are in a long Low Tide (18 days) as they usually decline for 17 days. If we are still in the High Tide it will be a long High Tide as it will need to exceed 3020.74 to continue.

My guess is we are probably in a Low Tide as Friday's low of 2945.53 wasn't too far off 2923 which would have confirmed the Low Tide. But as I type the S&P is about 50 points from the High Tide peak and about 50 points from a Low Tide confirmation.

It might not be as fun as sailing but the best thing to do is watch from the dock.

Therefore:
No new long positions planned.No short positions planned.Hold and/or sell existing positions. Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels:
High Tid…

Roller Coaster Emotions

Two days ago, Tuesday, I posted about the importance of "Patience" and how even thought it felt like a good time to set sail (buy a stock), the forecast was not clear. The forecast is never really clear but unless you have conviction in your decision it might be best to stay at the dock. So yesterday, I felt slight disappointment as I looked out at a beautiful day (the market was up) and I was still sitting at the dock watching. But today, so far, the market is down.

I've talked about having "The Right Mindset" for trading as you have to be extremely level headed and be able to manage your emotions. A win is a win and a loss is a loss, never get too happy with your results and never get too sad either. Remember, to try to keep it fun, you have to be able to lose it all.

Here's this week's roller coaster:
Monday S&P High 2999 Low 2982Tuesday S&P High 3008 Low 2958 "Patience"Wednesday S&P High 2990 Low 2953Today (so far) S&P High …

Patience

Today is the type of day, with the market down and an unsure tidal direction, it feels like a nice day for a cruise. Some of the boats that returned to the dock during the recent High Tide  are sitting slightly lower than when they were returned to the dock tempting me to set sail with them once again.

However, the current strategy is to watch the market set new highs or watch it fall back to a range between 2923 and 2798. The S&P at 2966 just isn't low enough to set sail today. If a storm is forming and we are in a new Low Tide it might be better to keep the boats moored at the dock until the tidal direction is clear and the Low Tide is established.

Fair winds and following seas!

Trading Tide Levels:
Confused Tide (S&P at 2968)Neap/Spring Tide (VIX slightly rising to around 17)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing po…

Course And Heading 09/23/19

The current King High Tide approached the all time high of 3027.98 on September 12. At that time it had risen for 37 days and 7%. The last 3 High Tides prior to this Tide lasted 53, 54 and 53 days respectively. Staying with that thesis, September 27 would mark the end of this tide. Otherwise, this High Tide crested at 3020.74 on September 12th and if that is the case, our next Low Tide has begun and should recede to somewhere between 2923 and 2798.

Therefore:
No new long positions planned.No short positions planned.Hold and/or sell existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 2992)Neap Tide (VIX around 15.5)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks …

Course And Heading 09/16/19

The current King High Tide is approaching our all time high of 3027.98 and has expanded now for 37 days and risen 7%. The last 3 High Tides have lasted 53, 54 and 53 days respectively. Staying with that thesis, we could continue to rise over the next 13 days or so and then start receding. Otherwise, this High Tide could have crested at 3020.74 on September 12th and if that is the case, our next Low Tide has begun and should recede to somewhere between 2923 and 2798.

Therefore:
No new long positions planned.No short positions planned.Hold and/or sell existing positions. Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 3009)Neap Tide (VIX around 14)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns …

Course And Heading 09/09/19

Last week confirmed we are now 34 days into this High Tide. The last 3 High Tides have lasted 53, 54 and 53 days respectively. Staying with that thesis, we could continue to rise over the next 21 days or so.

Therefore:
No new long positions planned.No short positions planned.Hold and/or sell existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 2981)Neap Tide (VIX around 15)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financial Planner, a co…

New Position: $AAPL Trade #105

I've been watch $AAPL for years and I finally took her out for a sail at $193.88, returned to the harbor and then set sail again at $203.42 and then again at $202.97. All 3 voyages have been very nice.

Trade Rank: 15

Prior $AAPL Tides:
June 3, 2019: $170.27July 31, 2019: $221.37August 5, 2019: $192.58 Fair winds and following seas!
Trading Tide Levels:
High Tide (S&P at 2992)Neap Tide (VIX around 15)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recommend, advocate or endorse any third-party links, resources or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certifie…

Course And Heading 09/03/19

The narrative remains similar to last week however, if the Low Tide ended at 2822 on August 5th, we are now 28 days into the rising High Tide. The last 3 High Tides have lasted 53, 54 and 53 days respectively. Therefore, there could be a nice run up in the next 25 days or so to somewhere between 3000 and 3100. If not, we are likely to test the Low Tide of 2822 once again.

Therefore:
No new long positions planned unless we test 2822.No short positions planned.Hold existing positions unless we test 3000 or greater or STOP-LOSSES are triggered.Trading Tide Levels:
Indecisive Tide (S&P fluctuating around 2912)Spring Tide (VIX around 19.50)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds…

Course And Heading 08/26/19

The Low Tide might have ended at 2822 on August 5th. If that is true, we are 21 days into the rising High Tide. The last 3 High Tides have lasted 53, 54 and 53 days respectively. If we are in a High Tide it should subside somewhere between 3000 and 3100 so a nice run could happen in the next 30 days. Otherwise, we are still in Low Tide and will test 2822 once again.

Therefore:
No new long positions planned unless we test 2822.No short positions planned.Hold existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
Rising from a Low Tide (S&P rising from 2822)Spring Tide (VIX at 19.77)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. I do not recom…

Course And Heading 08/19/19

The Course And Heading was disrupted last week due to a much needed vacation which included time spent on the real open sea!

The Low Tide might have ended at 2822 on August 5th. If that is true, we are 14 days into the rising High Tide and should see growth up to 3,100 over the next 2 months. However, we are already at 2926 so expect some volatility on the way up. Otherwise, we are still in Low Tide and will test 2822 once again.

Therefore:
No new long positions planned.No short positions planned.Hold existing positions.Trading Tide Levels:
Rising from a Low Tide (S&P rising from 2822)Moderate Tide (VIX at 17.12)Subscribe to 10KT NewsletterLearn More About 10KT
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This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes and nothing posted here is an indication of future results. Nothing in this blog is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns and investing in stocks or bonds carries risks includin…