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Stock Market Course And Heading 06/08/20

The current  King High Tide  has risen to 3211. This  tide  has risen  ↑  16% over 22 days and the seas have risen  ↑  47% since March 23, 2020. There have been 7  King High Tides  since January 1, 2016 and those tides rose between  ↑  15% and  ↑  24%. There is more room for this tide to rise and  ↑  24% would put the  S&P  at a record high of 3431. With the recent beautiful sailing conditions (despite the high winds), we remain guarded against the inevitable storm. Boats were called back to port last week and now 28% of the fleet remains at sea. Captain's Boat Log: No  new cruises  planned at the current tide level. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea. There are no  short sailings  planned. Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 3194) Rip Tide  (high winds,  VIX  around 24 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information pro

Stock Market Tide Update

The current  King High Tide  inched higher today to 3185. This  tide  has risen  ↑  15% over 22 days and the seas have risen  ↑  45% over the last 74 days. This is the 27th  High Tide  since January 1, 2016. The average  tide  over that period rose 11% and lasted 42 days. There have been 7  King High Tides  over that period and they rose between ↑ 15% and ↑ 24%. No new entries in this week's Captain's Boat Log: No  new cruises  planned. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea (about 38% of the  fleet ), and will call back some  boats  to port around the 3100 to 3200  Tide Level . There are no  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 3072) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 28 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass a

AUY Trade #91

$AUY Trade #91 I remember seeing Jim Cramer, on the television show Mad Money, yelling "YAMANA!!" at the TV during the "lightning round". That's when I began trading YAMANA Gold $AUY. $AUY, trade #91, isn't over yet, I have 10 boats sailing, but I've waited and waited for this stock to return to it's "glory hole" (those of you who have seen the show "Gold Rush" will understand). I've been sailing these 10 $AUY boats since September 2014 (yep, those boats should have been called back in a long time ago but I wasn't using a  STOP-LOSS  at the time). I thought sailing a gold mining boat would be a hedge if there was an overall pullback in the stock market. I guess I was right as $AUY is now over $5 per share after hitting a low of $1.78 last summer. That is a heck of a return, but... timing is everything and I started sailing it way to early! Here are three takeaways from $AUY Trade #91: First, someday I'll devote a

Stock Market Course And Heading 06/01/20

Last Thursday could have marked the peak of a  High Tide  at 3068.67. This  tide  has risen 11% and lasted 14 days and is the 23rd  High Tide  since January 1, 2018. The average  tide  over that period rose 10% and the  King High Tides  rose between ↑ 17% and ↑ 24% so there is more room for this  tide  to rise but, at ↑ 11%, we should also be preparing for storms. Therefore, here is the Captain's Boat Log entry: No  new cruises  planned. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea (about 38% of the  fleet ), and will call back some  boats  to port around the 3100 to 3200  Tide Level . There are no  short positions  planned. Click here for an update on Hurricane Corona Fair winds and following seas! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): High Tide  ( S&P  at 3044) Rip Tide  (dangerous winds,  VIX  around 28 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all po

Is The Stock Market Hurricane Over?

It sure feels like the seas have calmed and our first hurricane in over 10 years is over. However, before we "float all boats" going all in on this ocean, let's take a look at a these two key points from previous hurricanes: 1. Does being up 38% from the bottom, 2192 on March 23, 2020, mean that the hurricane is over? As stated earlier, both previous hurricanes had multiple  High Tide moves  greater than 20%. The  Tide  we are either in or just ended is up 23%. This is right in line with 5  tides  in the previous hurricanes that were up 22%, 23%, 24% (twice) and 25%. 2. Does being only down 10% since 3394, the start of the hurricane on February 28, 2020, mean that the hurricane is over? At the current 3036 level, the  S&P  is down 10% since the start of the hurricane (98 days before today). The  Great Recession  was down only 9% at the 221 day mark and the  Dot-Com Bubble  was also down 11% on day 313. Deciding when to sail (buy) is a challenge but hopefully history h

Hurricane Corona Tide Watch

Hurricane Corona   Tide  comparisons so far (as of May 27, 2020): Fifth High Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 22% over 60 days (day 424, ↓ 15% overall) Great Recession  ↑ 12% over 1 day (day 344, ↓ 20% overall) Corona : ↑ 24% over 55 days (day 97, ↓  10% overall) ACTIVE NOW? Fifth Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble   ↓ 22% over 41 days (day 364, ↓ 30% overall) Great Recession   ↓ 14% over 38 days (day 343, ↓ 28% overall) Corona : ↓ 7% over 1 days (day 42, ↓ 27% overall) Fourth High Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble  ↑ 10% over 41 days (day 313, ↓ 11% overall) Great Recession  ↑ 9% over 27 days (day 305, ↓ 17% overall) Corona : ↑ 21% over 8 days (day 41, ↓ 22% overall) Fourth Low Tide  of each hurricane: Dot-Com Bubble   ↓ 13% over 45 days (day 272,  ↓  19% overall) Great Recession   ↓ 17% over 57 days (day 278,  ↓  24% overall) Corona : ↓ 11% over 4 days (day 33,  ↓  35% overall) WAS THIS THE END? Third High Tide  o

Stock Market Course And Heading 05/25/20

Today we honor the heroes who died protecting our freedom. Each week feels like we are moving further away from  Hurricane Corona  and we are now up 22% since the April 1  Low Tide  of 2447. However, both previous hurricanes had multiple  High Tide moves  greater than 20% so we might not be out of the  hurricane  yet. If  Hurricane Corona  is over then: we could be rising again in a possible  High Tide  and we could rise to around the 3000  level . A possible 150 point range for the week is 2875 - 3030. If  Hurricane Corona  is not over then: we are still either in  High Tide  #5 and we could rise to around the 3000  level  or we are about to start  Low Tide  #6 which could take us all the way down to the 2400 level over the next few months based on  Tide  research. Therefore, here is the Captain's Log entry: No  new positions  planned. Continue sailing  boats  already at sea (about 43% of the  fleet  is sailing), hoping to call some back to port around the 3000 to 3100  Tide Level

Stock Market Course And Heading 05/18/20

Last week had some tough to read tide  movement as we were on the brink of reaching a High Tide  and then a squall developed dropping the  S&P  179 points to 2767. The sea  has been commonly moving about 150 points between the high and the low each calendar week (a reflection of the high  VIX .) The 179 point squall last week, however, was a very abrupt and concentrated move. During the squall, we launched a few small boats . If  Hurricane Corona  is over then: we could be rising again in a possible  High Tide  and it could be safe (although the winds remain dangerous ) to float some  boats  for short trips as we could rise to around the 3000  level . A possible 150 point range for the week is 2800 - 2950.  If  Hurricane Corona  is not over then: we are still either in  High Tide  #5 or  Low Tide  #6 which could take us all the way down to the 2400 level over the next few months based on  Tide  research. Therefore, here is the Captain's Log entry: Continue sailing  boats  alrea

Tricky Tides

We sail according to the  tides . We prefer to launch during stormy weather ( falling tides ) knowing we might get battered around a little at first but hopeful the storm is almost over so we can enjoy the rest of our voyage. Today is a classic example of the importance of  discipline and patience  and sticking to the plan . On Monday, May 4, 2020, if we are not still in  Hurricane Corona , we established a  Low Tide  at 2797.85. Over the last 11 days we've been rising toward the 3000 level, the weather has been good and the  Tide  rose to 2945.82, not quite a  High Tide , but it looked like a sure thing. Then, boom, a storm suddenly erupted and pulled the seas all the way down to the 2767 level. We had been in a  Low Tide  the entire time! A couple of days ago, we could have launched some boats around 2900, thinking we were in a fairly young, rising  High Tide , hoping to take short cruises up to around 2950 - 3000. But, as part of the strategy to only launch during storms or in

Boats And Fleet Management

Everyone has their own personality and preferences. Some like to feel the exhilarating g-force from the sharp acceleration of a jet ski and others like to slowly cruise around like on a pontoon, relaxing, perhaps even barbecuing or fishing along the way. My personality outside of trading (for the most part), has been one of a thrill seeker. I love the reward of taking on risk. Early in my sailing (trading) career, I took the same approach, seeking out high-flying boats and ignoring the diversity of having a fleet . I put everything into one  boat  that sunk. As you can guess, this was an expensive approach and it was absolutely no fun either! Today, I have about 73  boats , in several Watch Lists , in my  fleet .  Click here to read about boat selection from July 22, 2019  (Interestingly we were in a  High Tide  at the time of that post with the S&P  sitting near an all-time high (at the time) of 2976. One of the important questions you should ask yourself is: how much time can I