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Low Tide Confirmed

A  Low Tide  was confirmed today at 3854 (down 3% so far). The March 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 5% to 3723 The January 29, 2021  Low Tide  fell 5% to 3694 The January 4, 2021  Low Tide  fell 3% to 3663 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3914) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investment decisions are recommended to be in conjunction with a Certified Financ

High Tide #4 Update

The current  High Tide  (the fourth so far in 2021) reached 3984 on Thursday, March 17 at 13 days old and up 6%. We will remain in a  High Tide  until the  S&P  dips to 3855. There have been 36  High Tides  since 2016 (about 6 per year), and the average  High Tide  crested up 11% and lasted 40 days. Recently  High Tides  have been cresting up 6% - 7%, lasting around 22 days. The March 17, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3984 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3920) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Noth

High Tide Update

The current  High Tide  reached 3981 today and is 12 days old and up 6%. There have been 34  High Tides  since 2016, and the average  High Tide  crested up 11% and lasted 40 days. Recently they've been cresting up 6% - 7%. The March 1, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3915 The February 16, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3950 The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% at 3871 The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% at 3770 Fair winds and following seas and buy  low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3964) Tide Type: High Tide  (winds tolerable with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks inc

Trading The Tides Or Let It Ride?

Does trading  the Tides  really make a difference? The answer depends on the  volatility. Say the market steadily rises 20% over a period of time. If, during that period of time there was only  low volatility  ( VIX  less than 20), then if you traded/timed  the Tides  perfectly, you may earn only a few percentage points greater than the 20% you would have earned if you had just let it ride. So during periods of  low volatility , we are better off buying and holding (sailing), never returning to port. However, in periods of  high volatility  ( VIX  greater than 20), trading  the Tides  can produce significantly greater returns. Looking back over the period between June 15, 2020, and February 16, 2021 the  S&P  rose 33%. Because of the  high volatility  during that period, if you timed  the Tides  perfectly, you would have earned 76%. Volatility  is the key to trading  the Tides . And if you don't want to put in the work or we are in a period of  low volatility  then it is best t

Who Are You?

A few of my many takeaways from reading the great book " The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) ": I am a defensive investor. A defensive investor attempts to minimize losses by buying quality, bargain stocks when they are on sale. I don't get irrationally exuberant or overly pessimistic about the market. I cannot accurately "time the market" or predict the future. But I can study to try and determine when quality, bargain stocks are on sale. The years 2002, 2007, and 2020 had super  Low Tides  and, if you had bought stocks during these super  Low Tides  you would have achieved MUCH higher returns than at any other time in the last 20 years. The future is impossible to predict but you want to be positioned to take advantage of the next inevitable  Low Tide . There are usually 6 to 7 mini  Low Tides  each year and I'd rather buy during  Low Tides  than  High Tides . Knowing who you are w

High Tide Update

The current  High Tide  reached 3937 yesterday, 14 days old and up 7%. The January 26, 2021  High Tide  crested up 6% The January 4, 2021  High Tide  crested up 7% The average  High Tide  since 2016 crests at up 11% There have been 34  High Tides  since 2016  and the average  High Tide  lasts 40 days Fair winds and following seas and buy low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time  of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3935) Tide Type: High Tide  (wind weakening with  VIX  around 20 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisemen

Low Tide Forecast

Preparing for the next  Low Tide  phase. Usually, a good time to buy stocks.  Target  Low Tide  Levels: 3804 20% In (last reached February 2, 2021) 3737 30% In (January 6, 2021) 3633 50% In (December 11, 2020) 3512 80% In (November 10, 2020) 3209 100% In (September 24, 2020) Fair winds and following seas and buy low and sell high! Trading Tide Levels  (at the time of the post): Tide Level  ( S&P  @ 3903) Tide Type: High Tide  (wind weakening with  VIX  around 22 knots) Subscribe to 10KT Newsletter Learn More About 10KT Facebook Twitter This is for informational purposes only and the information provided does not encompass all possible or probable outcomes. Nothing posted here is an indication of future results or is a guarantee or promise of future investment returns. Investing in stocks or bonds carries risks including losing your entire investment. Nothing is recommended, advocated, or endorsed including any third-party links, resources, or advertisements of any kind. Any investm